2025 Paul's Picks Week 1
Welcome Back!
*NOTE*- I apologize for not publishing this morning, but we had our 1st HS game tonight (yes, our 1st game of the season was on a THURSDAY!) and that was all that was on my mind. I've had these picks done since Sunday, and I've probably already missed on some (that's how you'll know I didn't cheat...).
Last week, I was very mediocre with a 3-2 record, a winning percentage of 60%. The games I missed both went down to the wire. Oh well, there are still many, many games to go. And this week, there are a LOT of FBS vs FCS games, which history shows us is won by FBS teams greater than 90% of the time. So I just have to do well on the other games. There are 91(!) games in total this week, which I hope is the most for any week this year, because it took me a long time to prepare for this.
So... on with the picks!
Thursday, August 28
Boise State @ USF- The Broncos defend their G5 "crown" on the road against the Bulls as these 2 teams have never played before. Boise State had lost 3 straight openers, all against current P4 programs and all on the road, before winning at Ga Southern last year. After finishing last season with a loss to Penn State in the CFP, the Broncos are looking to be the 1st G5 team to ever return to the playoff. USF had also lost 3 straight opening games before defeating an FCS squad last year, but their losses were to 2 P4 teams (1 at home) and at fellow G5 team WKU. The Bulls are coming off their 2nd straight 7-6 season (bowl win each year!) and are looking to build on the momentum from the last half of last year, where they finished 5-2 over their last 7 games. USF was 3-2 at home last year while BSU was 5-1 on the road. Broncos stampede the Bulls.
Ohio @ Rutgers- The Scarlet Knights lead this series 2-1, but the largest margin of victory for either team is a relatively small 17 points. Rutgers has wins in 2006 and 2011, with Ohio's lone win coming in their 1st matchup in 1937. Like this one, all the other meetings have taken place in New Brunswick. The Bobcats won the MAC last year for the 1st time since 1968, but they've lost their last 2 opening games, both on the road, and they were only 3-3 away from Athens last year. Rutgers has had 2 consecutive seasons with a 7-6 record, their 1st back-to-back winning seasons since 2011-12. The Scarlet Knights have won 7 straight opening games, last losing to Washington in 2017 in Piscataway, and the streak is no fluke, as it includes 3 current P4 teams and only 1 FCS opponent (last year). Rutgers was 4-3 at home last year, and should extend their opening game winning streak to 8 in a row. Knights win.
Lafayette at Bowling Green- The Falcons and Leopards (6-6 last year) have never met before. Expect BGSU to win easily.
East Carolina @ NC State- The Wolfpack lead this series 19-14, winning 3 of the last 4, but the Pirates won 26-21 last year in the Military Bowl, and has held their own since 1983, winning 11 of the last 20 meetings, with NC State only 6-5 in Raleigh since then. Obviously ECU is not intimidated by Carter-Finley Stadium (which is a pretty neat stadium, if I may say so, though I've never seen a game there). East Carolina finally won their opener last year after losing 7 in a row, while NC State hasn't lost an opener since 2017. The Pirates were 3-3 on the road last year, with the Wolfpack only 4-3 at home. This is my 1st upset special of the year! East Carolina wins in a mild upset.
Jacksonville State @ UCF- This is another 1st time meeting- I have a feeling there will be a lot of these this weekend. Both teams are starting over with new head coaches, with JSU's HC being Charles Kelly in his 1st year ever. The Gamecocks are coming off a fantastic year where they were 9-5 and CUSA champions, but lost their bowl to Ohio. However, they were only 3-3 on the road, losing to their only P4 opponent- Louisville- by 35 points. UCF was a disappointing 4-8 in 2024, 3-4 at home, and are also starting over, but are doing so by bringing back former HC Scott Frost. Jax State lost their opener last year after winning the 2 previous openers, but the Knights haven't lost an opener since 2015, and that includes wins over Ga Tech and Boise State. While I don't have a lot of faith in the new/old regime at UCF- I'm in wait and see mode- I expect they'll have little trouble with the Gamecocks. Knights win.
Delaware State @ Delaware- The Blue Hens have never lost to the Hornets, sporting an 11-0 record that spans 2007-2022, with the closest margin of victory being 10 points, 27-17 in 2009 (next closest is 18 points). All but the 2020 matchup have been played in Delaware Stadium in Newark, DE, home of the Blue Hens. Delaware hasn't lost an opener since 2018, and will get the win in their 1st ever game as a member of the FBS and of CUSA.
St. Francis @ ULM- The Warhawks have never faced the Red Flash (4-7 last year), and ULM will win their 3rd straight opening game.
Wyoming @ Akron- The Cowboys and Zips have never faced each other on the gridiron before. Akron was only 4-8 last year, but that was their most wins since they were also 4-8 in 2018, and they were a respectable 3-2 at home, but they've lost 2 straight opening games, though both of those were on the road against superior teams (Ohio State last year). Wyoming was an even more disappointing 3-9 last year, but were not too bad on the road, sporting a 2-4 record, and they've lost their last 3 opening games that were on the road (though they own wins over Missouri and Texas Tech at home since 2019). I really think Akron may make a move in the MAC this year, but if the Cowboys can't beat the Zips, they have bigger problems than anyone could imagine. Wyoming wins.
Central Arkansas @ Missouri- The Tigers and Bears (6-6 last season) have never met before, and my guess is that when this is over, Central Arkansas will probably wish they had never heard of Missouri. Mizzou wins big.
Elon @ Duke- The Blue Devils are 8-0-1 against the Phoenix (6-6), but they've only met 3 times since 1926. The 0-0 tie came in their 2nd meeting in 1921, and the only time they met in Elon, NC was in 1925, though they did play in Greensboro in 1923. None of that matters. Duke wins in a rout.
UT Martin @ Oklahoma State- The Cowboys and Skyhawks (9-5) will meet for the 1st time, and OSU will take out all their frustrations from last year on hapless UT Martin. Cowboys crush the Skyhawks.
Buffalo @ Minnesota- The Golden Gophers have won both meetings with the Bulls, in 2002 and in 2017, with the most recent win by just 10 points, 17-7. Like this one, those games were played in Minneapolis. Buffalo was 9-4 last year, and 3-3 on the road, but they have generally not fared well when facing P4 teams, losing their last 4 matchups by at least 21 points each, with 17 points they most they have scored in those contests. In addition, they've lost 2 of their last 3 opening games, winning last year over an FCS opponent. Minnesota, on the other hand, has won 2 of their last 3 openers, losing last year to North Carolina at home. The Gophers were 8-5 last year and 4-3 at home. Minny wins their 3rd straight in the series.
Stephen F. Austin @ Houston- The Lumberjacks actually lead the Cougars in this series with 2 wins- in 1947 and '48- against UH's 1 win (1946). And at 7-5 last year, their record exceeded that of Houston's 4-8. But just like 1836, when Stephen F. Austin ran for Texas President against Sam Houston, SFA will lose to Houston. Cougars win big.
Alabama State @ UAB- The Blazers and Hornets are tied in this series at 2 wins apiece, with ASU winning in 1994 and '95 and UAB winning in 2008 and 2019. The last 3 games were all played in Birmingham. UAB wins to finally take the lead in the series.
Nebraska vs Cincinnati (Kansas City)- The Cornhuskers defeated the Bearcats 41-0 in their only prior meeting, but that was in 1906. A few things have changed since then, including the addition of that newfangled idea called the forward pass (1st legal forward pass was in 1906- and initially, there was a 5-yard penalty if it was incomplete, but any player, including guards and centers, could catch a pass). NU finally broke through last year and ended their long bowl drought and even won their bowl to finish with a 7-6 record, their 1st winning campaign since they were 9-4 in 2016. The Huskers are looking for greater things this year, and will be looking for their 2nd straight season opening victory, as last year was their 1st since 2019. Cincinnati was 5-7, missing out on a bowl after starting the season 5-2, and they'll be trying for their 3rd consecutive season opening win. The Bearcats were 2-4 away from home last year while Nebraska was 1-4 on the road, with their only win at woeful Purdue. Call it a feeling, but I think Cincy is going to pull the upset.
Miami, Oh @ Wisconsin- Speaking of Cincinnati, their former HC, Luke Fickell, is on the hot seat at Wisconsin, so the Badgers need a strong start to solidify his continued employment. The Badgers won the only previous meeting in 2015 by a score of 58-0, but much has changed since then, as UW was 10-3 in '15 while Miami was 3-9 that year. The Redhawks are coming off of a 9-5 season, and are 20-8 over the last 2 seasons, as they were 3-3 on the road. However, Miami hasn't won a season opener since 2020, with all 4 losses on the road against current P4 teams, but they are no stranger to P4 competition, as they defeated Cincinnati in 2023, and have 15 wins against Big Ten competition. Wisconsin was only 5-7 last year, their 1st losing season since they were 5-7 in 2001. They were only 3-3 at home last season, but have won 3 consecutive opening games. I really think Miami will play this close, but the Badgers will prevail in the end.
Stony Brook @ San Diego State- The Aztecs and Seawolves will be meeting for the 1st time, as Stony Brook, 8-4 last year, travels 2822 miles to get their rears whipped. SDSU wins in a rout.
Friday, August 29
Tarleton State @ Army- The Texans travel to New York to face the Black Knights for the 1st time ever, but if there's anything Army has proven it does well over the years, it's beat FCS schools, even those as good as TSU (10-4 last year). The Black Knights win big.
Western Michigan @ Michigan State- The Spartans lead this series overwhelmingly, with 15 wins against 2 losses, with those losses coming 1917 and 1919 (the series was tied 2-2), meaning MSU has won 13 contests in a row. The Broncos were 6-7 last year, their 3rd straight losing season, and were only 3-5 on the road (only 4 home games in '24!), losing 3 of their last 4 season openers. Michigan State was only 5-7, and like WMU, they have 3 losing seasons in a row. The Spartans were 4-3 at home last year, and they've won 4 consecutive openers. Historically, Western Michigan has 8 wins against current Big Ten teams, but they won't get one this year. MSU wins a close one.
Kennesaw State @ Wake Forest- This will be a 1st ever meeting between the Owls and the Demon Deacons. KSU debuted in the FBS last season and had a rough start, finishing 2-10, but they did have an upset of Liberty for their 1st CUSA and FBS win ever. The Owls were 0-5 on the road last year, and have actually lost 10 straight games away from home, and 14 of their last 15. They've also lost 2 of their last 3 openers. WF was 4-8 last year, and 1-6 at home, but they've won 4 straight openers, all at home, with 3 of those FCS squads. Kennesaw is only 1 year removed from the FCS, so the Demon Deacons will win by 14+ points.
Appalachian State @ Charlotte- The Mountaineers have won all 3 matchups with the 49ers, in 2018, 2019, and 2020, each by at least 15 points, and 1 of those in Charlotte. In addition, ASU has never scored less than 35 against Charlotte's defense. Both teams had 5 wins last year, but App State had only 6 losses (vs Charlotte's 7 losses) because their game with Liberty was canceled due to hurricane. The 49ers were 3-3 at home, and have lost 2 of their last 3 opening games, including last year at home. ASU was 1-5 on the road in '24, and have lost 6 of their last 7 road games, but have won their last 2 openers, and 4 of their last 5. App State wins.
Bethune-Cookman @ FIU- The Wildcats lead this series 4-0, winning convincingly in 3 of the 4 games, with 3 of the 4 played in Miami, and 1 at the "neutral" site of Ft. Lauderdale. The wins were a while ago- 2002, 2003, 2013, and 2014, but FIU has been an FBS member since 2004. Last year B-C was only 2-10, so the Panthers will finally get their 1st win in the series.
Western Illinois @ Illinois- The Fighting Illini lead the series 3-0, with wins in 2007, 2015, and 2018, all in Champaign, and all by at least 20 points. Expect more of the same against the Leathernecks, who were 4-8 last year. Illinois wins big.
Wagner @ Kansas- The Jayhawks and Seahawks (4-8 last year) have never met on the gridiron before now, but KU will win this Hawk battle.
Auburn @ Baylor- The Bears lead this series 2-1-1, but they haven't played since 1976. Interestingly, both of Baylor's wins came at Auburn (1965, 1976), with the lone time they met in Waco ending in a 10-10 tie (1975). The Tigers' only win came in the 1954 Gator Bowl. Baylor is coming off an 8-5 season that saw them run off 6 straight wins before their loss to LSU in the Texas Bowl. The Bears were 5-1 at home, and have won 4 of their last 5 opening games. The Plainsmen were only 5-7 last year, with 5 of those losses by 10 points or less, and they were only 1-3 on the road last season. The War Eagles have won 8 consecutive openers, but all of those were at home or at a neutral site, with both of those against P4 teams. The great Phil Steele has the Bears winning the Big 12, but Auburn pulls the upset, winning a close one.
Georgia Tech @ Colorado- Even though both teams have been playing football since at least 1892 (CU started in 1890), these teams have never met before, not even in a bowl game. It seems incredible that after 132 years of playing football that these teams will finally meet. The Buffaloes were a surprising 9-4 last year, and the worry is that they will not be able to sustain that success, especially with most of their stars leaving for the NFL. But they were 5-1 at home last year, won 5 of their last 6 regular season games (5 of 7 overall), and have won their last 3, and 5 of their last 6 games at home. The Yellow Jackets have 2 consecutive 7-6 seasons, and they were 1-2 on the road (plus a win in Ireland), but their opening win last season was their 1st since 2020, and they haven't beaten a team not named FSU in an opener since 2018 (Alcorn State). I think the Jackets are poised for a breakthrough season, and may even make the ACC CG. GT wins a close one.
UNLV @ Sam Houston- This will be the 1st time these teams have ever met on the gridiron. The Rebels began their season with a close win over FCS squad Idaho State, a game where they struggled to stop the Bengals, relying on 5 turnovers to secure the win. The Bearkats opened with a loss to Conference USA rival WKU, but kept it close into the 2nd half, even leading 24-20 early in the 3rd quarter. This game should be close, but both need to improve on defense. UNLV wins.
Central Michigan @ San Jose State- This series is tied with one win each. The Chippewas got their win in 1979 in San Jose while the Spartans got theirs in the 1990 California Bowl in Fresno. CMU is starting over with new HC Matt Drinkell, who was 42-17 at Kansas Wesleyan from 2014-19. The Chips were 4-8 last year, their 3rd consecutive losing season, and were 0-6 on the road last season, as they have lost 10 straight, and 13 of their last 14 games away from Mt. Pleasant. Their opening win last season (over an FCS foe) was their 1st since 2020. SJSU was 7-6 last season with a bowl loss in OT to USF, and they were 5-2 at home with a win over Stanford in their final regular season game. They've won 4 of their last 5 openers, with their lone loss at USC. Spartans win.
Saturday, August 30
Texas @ Ohio State - This is obviously the best game of the weekend, and perhaps of the year. This series is tied with 2 wins for each team, and all have been played within the last 20 years. The Longhorns won the 1st meeting, 25-22 in Columbus on Sep 10 of 2005; the Buckeyes won 24-7 on 9-9-2006 in Austin; Texas won the next matchup in the 2009 Fiesta Bowl by a score of 24-21; and OSU won 28-14 in the CFP Semifinal in the Cotton Bowl this past season. So the pattern is that if the game is played in Texas, the Bucks win; if it's anywhere else, UT wins. But it's rarely that simple. Ohio State is the defending National Champion, finishing 14-2 after winning 4 CFP games, and though they have won 13 of their last 14 home games, they lost their most recent home game to Michigan. In fact, they haven't lost a home game to a team not named Michigan since losing to Oregon in the 2nd game of the 2021 season. And the last home loss before then? It was to Oklahoma in the 2nd game of the 2017 season. and before then? Michigan State in November 2015. Suffice it to say they don't lose at home often- just 5 times in the last 10 seasons! Ohio State also hasn't lost an opening game since 1999 (23-12 to Miami, Fl in East Rutherford, NJ, and hasn't lost an opening game at home since 1978, losing 19-0 to Penn State, who was an Independent at the time. There was one other opening day loss between 1978 and 1999- in 1986, when they lost 16-10 to Alabama, also in East Rutherford, NJ in game that was called the Kickoff Classic. Texas was 13-3 last year, 5-0 on the road, and they have won their last 12 road games dating back to a loss to Oklahoma State in 2022. , and they are 15-3 in all games away from Darrell K. Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium (including neutral site games). The Horns haven't lost an opener since losing at Maryland in 2018. One of these teams is going to lose their streak(s). Both teams will be breaking in new QBs, but only one has a pedigree, and that one at least has some starting experience. Horns win, but this should be one heck of a game!
Syracuse vs Tennessee (Atlanta)- There will be a lot of Orange on the field when the Orange takes on the Big Orange in Atlanta. Tennessee leads the series 3-0, winning in the 1966 Gator Bowl (18-12), 34-33 in 1998 in Syracuse, and 33-9 in 2001 in Knoxville. The Volunteers have won their last 4 neutral site games, and were 3-3 away from the friendly confines of Neyland Stadium last season. In addition, the Vols have won their last 5 opening games, dating back to an upset loss to Georgia State in 2019. Syracuse was 4-2 away from home last year, including the bowl win over Washington State, and they've won 4 consecutive openers. Both teams were 10-3 last year, but only 1 played in the CFP. UT wins.
Mississippi State @ Southern Miss- The Bulldogs lead this series 18-12-1, winning the last 6 (since 1989), including the last 2 in Hattiesburg (1989 and 2015). This game was played in Jackson every year from 1981-88, with USM winning 6 of the 8 played there. Miss State also forfeited 2 wins in 1975 and '76, and the 10-10 tie occurred in 1973 in Starkville. The Golden Eagles were a miserable 1-11 last year, 1-5 at home (win over FCS opponent), and they've won only 1 opening game in the last 5 years (vs another FCS team in 2023. USM is starting over, luring Charles Huff from SBC champion Marshall. MSU was only slightly better at 2-10, 0-5 on the road, but they at least got a win over an FBS team, though it was pitiful UMass (who also had 2 wins, both over FCS teams). However, the Bulldogs haven't lost an opener since 2016, when they lost to South Alabama. I'm pretty sure the only people who will be watching this game on ESPN are the alumni bases from the 2 teams, people who check other games during ad breaks, or the morbidly curious. MSU wins.
FAU @ Maryland- The Owls and Terrapins will be meeting for the 1st time. FAU was 3-9 last year and haven't had a winning season since 2020, and so are starting over with new HC Zach Kittley, who at 33 years old is the youngest HC in the FBS. The Owls have won 2 of their last 3 opening games, losing at Michigan State in 2024, and were 1-5 on the road last year. Overall, they are 1-10 against Big Ten teams, losing their last 10. Maryland was 4-8 last season, and 3-4 at home. The Terps have won 4 openers in a row. UM needs to win as many games in the first half of the season as possible, as the last half is much tougher. Turtles win.
Ball State @ Purdue- The Boilermakers have won all 8 of their matchups with the Cardinals, with all games being played between 1985 and 2010, all in West Lafayette, and all by at least 10 points. Both teams have new coaches this year with HC Barry Odom of Purdue taking over a 1-11 team with a 1-5 record at home, and no wins over an FBS team, but at least they won their opening game, the 1st time that's happened since 2021. BSU is now being led by HC Mike Uremovich, who was 33-45 at St. Francis from 2005-2011 (10-3 his final year) and 23-11 at Butler from 2022-24 (56-56 overall). The Cards were 1-6 on the road last year, and 2-11 on the road the last 2 seasons. Like Purdue, Ball State won their opener last year for the 1st time since 2021. Boilermakers win.
Northwestern @ Tulane- The Green Wave lead this series 3-1, winning the last 2, but this will be only the 2nd time they will play in New Orleans. However, those games were played in 1925, 1930 (NU's only win), 1955, and 1956, and the winning team in each matchup never scored more than 21 points. Tulane was 9-5 last year, and were 4-2 at home, and they've won 3 opening games in a row. The Wildcats fell back to 4-8 (after an 8-5 season in 2023), going 2-3 on the road, and they've won 2 of their last 3 openers, including last year against Miami, Oh. This is one of those intriguing matchups that make CFB so interesting- is a top G5 team better than a middle-of-the-road (at best) P4 team? We shall find out. The Green Wave washes over the Wildcats and pulls out a win at home.
Duquesne @ Pittsburgh- The Panthers lead this series 4-2, but the Dukes have the most recent win- in 1939! These teams met 6 times between 1932 and that 1939 contest, and Duquesne's other win was in 1936, with all games being played in Pittsburgh, of course, since that is where both schools are located. Pitt wins big over the Dukes, who were 8-3 last year.
VMI @ Navy- The Midshipmen have won all 10 games against the Keydets (1-11 last year), as this series has spanned from 1898-2014, with all games in Annapolis except 2- 1963 in Norfolk, VA (neutral site) and 1973 in Lexington, VA, the only time VMI has hosted. Navy wins easily.
Merrimack @ Kent State- This is the 1st time the Golden Flashes will face the Warriors, who were 5-6 last season. Merrimack is 0-3 all-time against FBS teams, while KSU is 27-11 against FCS teams since the divisional split in 1978. The Flashes desperately need to get a win, as HC Matt Carney is only here on an interim basis (no idea if he can win the job or not, or if he even wants it permanently). Kent State has lost 21 games in a row, and their last 22 FBS games (1-1 vs FCS teams the last 2 years), as they are 1-23 the last 2 seasons. I think KSU will win, but I'm not overly confident about it.
Toledo @ Kentucky- The Wildcats have the only win in the series, 38-24 in 2019. The Rockets were 8-5 last year, and 3-3 on the road but got a win over Pitt in the bowl game, and lost at Illinois by only 2 points in their 2023 opener. They also got a 24-point win over SEC member Mississippi State last year in Starkville. UK had their 1st losing season since 2020 when they finished at 4-8 last year, as they were only 3-5 at home. However, the Cats have won 4 straight opening games. This is a game much like the Northwestern-Tulane game mentioned above, but I'm going the opposite way in this one. Wildcats win.
Fordham @ Boston College- The Eagles lead this series 14-11-2, winning the last 3, but those were played from 1952-54. The series started in 1912 with a Fordham win, and the Rams won 3 of the first 5 games, with one of those a tie. The Rams also won 8 of 11 between 1929 and 1951. Fordham was only 2-10 last year, so BC should win this easily.
Robert Morris @ West Virginia- The Mountaineers and Colonials (7-5 last year) will be meeting for the 1st time. WVU wins big.
Central Connecticut @ UConn- The Huskies defeated the Blue Devils (7-6 last year) in their only previous meeting, 28-3 in 2022. Huskies will win again.
ODU @ Indiana- The Monarchs and Hoosiers will be competing on the gridiron for the 1st time. IU had a magical season last year, and the question is whether they can repeat that success, as they haven't had back-to-back winning seasons since 2019-2020. But they were 8-0 at home last year, and they've won 3 of their last 5 opening games (losses at Iowa and Ohio State). ODU was only 5-7 last year, but had 5 close losses, and were a respectable 3-3 on the road, including a 4-point loss to South Carolina in Columbia. However, they've lost their last 2 openers, both at P4 teams on the road, so this looks like a 3rd straight opening game loss away from home. Indiana wins, but don't be surprised if this is relatively close, even if the final score doesn't look like it.
Eastern Kentucky @ Louisville- The Cardinals lead this series, begun in 1927, by a score of 20-7-1, winning the last 5. The Colonels (8-5 last year) last won in 1985, and before then, is was back-to-back wins in 1953-54. Cards win easily.
Marshall @ Georgia- The Bulldogs won the only previous meeting by a score of 13-3 in 2004. The Dawgs were a "disappointing" 11-3 last year, but they did win the SEC Championship. The disappointment comes from a quarterfinal loss to Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl as the #2 seed. However, UGA has won their last 31 home games, won their last 11 opening games, and hasn't lost an opening game at home since 1996. The Thundering Herd were also conference champs last year, finishing 10-3, 4-3 on the road with a current 4-game road winning streak, and haven't lost an opener since 2012 (at West Virginia). However, the Herd is starting over with HC Tony Gibson, who will be making his HC debut this game. Dawgs win.
Nevada @ Penn State- The Wolf Pack and Nittany Lions will be playing against each other for the 1st time. PSU was 13-3 last year, progressing all the way to the CFP semifinals, where they lost to Notre Dame by a FG. The Lions were 6-1 at home, and haven't lost an opener since 2020. Nevada was perhaps the best 3-win team in FBS last year, as they finished 3-10, 1-5 on the road, and with 6 losses by 7 points or less. This will be their 3rd straight opening game against a P4 opponent (and 4th in last 5 years), and it looks like it will be a 3rd straight opening game loss, and it will be their 7th consecutive loss overall. Penn State wins.
Alabama @ FSU- The Crimson Tide lead this series 3-1-1, with the lone Seminoles win in 2007 in Jacksonville vacated due to academic fraud scandal. The Tide's 3 wins took place in 1965, 1974, and 2017, with the 37-37 tie in 1967. The game has been played in Tuscaloosa twice, Birmingham once, Jacksonville once, and most recently in Atlanta, so this will be the 1st time Bama visits Tallahassee. Alabama was "only" 9-4 last year, the 1st time they've won less than 10 games since 2007. The Tide were 2-3 on the road, and if you include bowl losses, are only 2-5 in their last 7 games away from home. Bama hasn't lost an opening game since losing to UCLA at home in 2001. FSU collapsed from 13-1 in 2023 to just 2-10 last year, their worst season since they were 1-10 in 1974. The Noles were only 2-4 at home, but they've won 2 of their last 3 openers. This game could reveal much about these respective teams. Will FSU bounce back to a winning season? Can Alabama reassert their dominance, and can they win on the road? Crimson Tide rolls.
South Dakota @ Iowa State- The Cyclones have defeated the Coyotes, 11-3 last year, in all 9 previous meetings. This will make 10 straight. ISU wins in a 2-0 start.
Bucknell @ Air Force- The Falcons and Bison, 6-6 last year, have never met before. AF wins.
Temple @ UMass- The Owls lead this series 3-0, winning in 2015, 2017, and 2022. Temple was 3-9 last year, 0-7 on the road (and losers of their last 21 away games), and has only won an opening game once in the last 5 years. The Minutemen were 2-10, 2-4 at home (both wins against FCS competition), losers of their last 12 FBS games, and has also won just one of their last 5 opening games. Both teams have 1st year coaches. One of these streaks has to end. Owls ease by UMass.
Holy Cross @ Northern Illinois- The Huskies and Crusaders (6-6 last year) have never played before. NIU wins.
Montana State @ Oregon- The Ducks defeated the Bobcats (15-1 last year) 27-14 in their only previous meeting in 1947. This is the only opponent UO could have played that had more wins, but with the same amount of losses. Oregon wins.
Maine @ Liberty- The Flames and Black Bears, 5-7 last year, have only met once with LU emerging victorious in 2019 by a score of 59-44. Liberty wins easily.
Alabama A&M @ Arkansas- The Razorbacks will make quick work of the Bulldogs (6-6 last year) in this 1st ever meeting. Soooo Pig!
Chattanooga @ Memphis- The Tigers lead this series between these 2 Tennessee teams, begun in 1942, by a record of 12-5, winning the last 9, with the last meeting in 2006. The Mocs (7-5 last year) won the 1st contest, and 5 of the 1st 8, but they haven't won since 1957. Memphis wins.
Illinois State @ Oklahoma- The Sooners and Redbirds, 10-4 last year, will be meeting for the 1st time. OU wins big.
UAlbany @ Iowa- The Hawkeyes and Great Danes (4-8 last year) have never met before. Iowa wins.
Coastal Carolina @ Virginia- The Cavaliers defeated the Chanticleers 43-24 in Conway last year, and I expect a similar result this year. CCU was 6-7 last year, their 1st losing season since 2019, and they were 3-3 on the road. The Chants have also won 4 of their last 5 opening games with their only loss in that span at UCLA in 2023. The Wahoos were 5-7, missing out on a bowl when they lost their final 3 games of the season, and they were only 2-4 in home games. They've also won 4 of their last 5 openers. UVA wins.
Weber State @ James Madison- The Dukes are 3-0 against the Wildcats (4-8 last year), winning in 2017, 2019, and 2021, with only the last contest being played in Ogden. JMU gets the season started with a big win.
Long Island @ Florida- The Gators will have no problems with the Sharks (4-8 last year) in this 1st time matchup.
North Dakota @ Kansas State- The Wildcats will be playing the Fighting Hawks (5-7 last year) for the 1st time ever. KSU wins to even their record at 1-1.
UTSA @ Texas A&M- The Aggies lead the series 2-0, winning in 2016 and 2019 by a combined 44 points. TAMU was only 8-5 last year, but were within a victory over Texas of playing in the SEC CG for the 1st time. The Aggies were 5-2 at home, and have won 4 of their last 5 opening games, losing last year to Notre Dame. The Roadrunners were 7-6 last year, their fewest wins since they were 7-5 in 2020, and were 0-6 on the road. Their win in the opening game last year was their 1st since 2021. Aggies win.
Charleston Southern @ Vanderbilt- The Commodores are 1-0 against the Buccaneers, 1-11 last year, winning 21-20 in 2014. This game will not be that close. Vandy wins as the Commodores sink the Bucs.
Austin Peay @ Middle Tennessee- The Blue Raiders lead the Governors (4-8 last year) 38-12-2 in this series that began in 1936. After winning 15 of the 1st 17 contests- there were ties in 1954 and 1955, MTSU finally succumbed to Austin Peay in 1964, as the Govs won 4 of 6 from 1964-1969. The Raiders then won 6 in a row, followed by AP winning 6 of 7 from 1975-81, whereupon MTSU has won 15 of the last 17, including the last 12, with AP's last win in 1986. These teams haven't met since 2010. Blue Raiders win, extending their winning streak in the series to 13.
North Alabama @ WKU- The Hilltoppers and Lions (3-9 last year) have never played before. WKU wins in a rout to start 2-0.
Southeast Missouri State @ Arkansas State- The Redbirds, 9-4 last year, lead the Red Wolves 8-5-1 in a series that began in 1916. After ASU won the initial contest, SE Mo St won 8 of the next 9 (0-0 tie in 1921) through 1946, but the Wolves have won the last 4 meetings: 1947, 1996, 2003, and 2018, all by at least 18 points. Curiously, only 2 of the 14 meetings have been held in Cape Girardeau, MO, in 1941 and 1947. ASU wins.
Morgan State @ South Alabama- The Jaguars and Bears (6-6 last year) will be playing for the first time. SA wins.
Nicholls @ Troy- The Trojans lead the series 4-1 against the Colonels (4-8 last year), winning the last 4. All games were played between 1997 and 2001, 3 times in Troy, and twice in Thibodaux, LA. Troy wins.
LSU @ Clemson- The Tigers (LSU) lead the Tigers (Clemson) 3-1, but this will be the 1st time they have ever played in the regular season. LSU has wins in the 1959 Sugar Bowl (7-0), the 1996 Peach Bowl (10-7), and the 2019 National Championship Game (42-25), with Clemson's lone win coming in the 2012 Peach Bowl by a score of 25-24. LSU was a disappointing (for them) 9-4 last year, and were only 2-2 on the road, 3-3 if you count neutral site games, and they have famously failed to win an opening game in the 4 years HC Brian Kelly has been there. In fact, they haven't won an opening game since their national championship year in 2019. Clemson bounced back from a subpar (for them) 9-4 record in 2023 to finish 10-4 in 2024 with an ACC Championship, but they lost in the 1st round of the CFP to Texas by 14 points. They've lost 2 straight openers, and 3 of their last 4. I expect this to be a close, hard fought game, but the Bayou Bengals will prevail.
New Mexico @ Michigan- The Wolverines and Lobos have never met on the field of play, so this will be the 1st time. UM was 8-5 last year as defending National Champions, which was quite a drop off from 15-0, and they were 6-2 at home, but they haven't lost an opening game since 2018 to Notre Dame. UNM isn't Notre Dame, but they were a respectable (for them) 5-7 overall, and 3-4 on the road, but they've lost 2 consecutive openers. Unfortunately for the Lobos, almost everyone transferred, which leaves new HC Jason Eck (26-13 at Idaho from 2022-24) a huge project to get UNM to a winning season, something they haven't done since they were 9-4 in 2016. Wolverines prevail.
Arkansas Pine-Bluff @ Texas Tech- The Red Raiders and Golden Lions, 3-9 last year, will be meeting for the 1st time. TTU wins.
Missouri State @ USC- The Men of Troy welcome the Bears to the FBS ranks in a 1st ever matchup between the 2 teams. I'm not sure any team has had as tough of an introduction. Trojans destroy MSU.
SE Louisiana @ La Tech- The Bulldogs lead the series 2-0, winning in 2008 and in 2021, both in Ruston, but the '21 victory was by only 3 points. The Lions were 7-5 last year, but LT usually handles FCS teams. Bulldogs win.
UTEP @ Utah State- The Aggies own victories in all 3 meetings with the Miners- in 1960 in El Paso, in 1961 in Logan, and in the 2014 New Mexico Bowl. In all 3 matchups, the score was nearly identical: 20-7, 21-6, and 21-6 (in order from 1960-2014). UTEP was 3-9 last year, but they won 2 of their last 3 games (2 wins sandwiched around a big loss to Tennessee), but they haven't won an opening game since 2021. USU had only a slightly better record at 4-8, winning 3 of their last 5, but they'll be starting over under new HC Bronco Mendenhall, as he returns to the Beehive State, where he spent 11 years as HC of BYU, after a year at New Mexico. UTEP was 1-6 on the road in 2023, while Utah State was 3-3 at home. The Aggies have won 3 of their last 4 openers. USU will be moving to the Pac 12 next year, and the Miners will be taking their place in the MWC. Aggies win, probably by a score of 20 or 21 to 6 or 7.
Georgia State @ Ole Miss- The Rebels and the Panthers will be meeting for the 1st time. GSU had a rough start to the Dell McGee era, as they fell to 3-9 last season, losing 8 of their last 9, and lost their 4th opening game in the last 5 years (only win vs an FCS team). The Rebs were 10-3, just missing out on the CFP, and all 3 losses were by 7 points or less. Ole Miss has won 4 openers in a row, and this game will make it 5 straight. Georgia State was 1-5 on the road last year while Ole Miss was 6-1 at home. Rebels win big.
Portland State @ BYU- The Cougars defeated the Vikings (3-8 last year) in their only previous meeting by a score of 20-6 in Provo in 2017. This game won't be that close. BYU wins.
Rice @ Louisiana- This series is tied 3 wins to 3, with the Owls winning in 1921, 1983, and the most recent matchup in 2022. The Ragin' Cajuns have wins in 1982, 1988, and 1989. UL was 10-4 last year, but lost 3 of their last 5, including the SBC CG and in the New Mexico Bowl. However, they've won 3 consecutive opening games, all against FCS foes, with their last loss coming at Texas. Rice is starting over yet again with HC Scott Abell (47-28 in 7 seasons at Davidson, 3 FCS playoff appearances, and 39-24 at Washington & Lee- so 86-52 overall, 62.3%), as they continue to search for a winning formula. The Owls haven't had a winning season since they were 8-5 in 2014 under HC David Bailiff, but they did win 2 of their last 4 games. Unfortunately, they haven't won an opener since 2018, and that was against an FCS squad. Louisiana was 4-3 at home last year while Rice was 0-6 on the road. This is the kind of game both teams really need to win if they hope to get to 6 wins and a bowl. UL wins.
Eastern Michigan @ Texas State- The Eagles hold the 1-0 advantage, winning 59-21 in 2021 in Ypsilanti, so the Bobcats will be looking to even the score in San Marcos. TSU was 8-5 last year, matching their record from 2023 as they won their bowl game both years. The Bobcats finished the season winning 4 of their last 5 games and in a 3-way tie for 2nd place in the SBC West, 2 games behind Louisiana. They've won each of their last 2 opening games, including a win at Baylor. EMU slipped to 5-7 last year, their 1st season without a bowl since the pandemic season of 2020. The Eagles started the season 5-2, but then lost their last 5 games, starting with an upset loss at Akron. EMU has started each of their last 4 seasons with a win, but they usually open with an FCS team, except last year when they played at UMass (which is about the same thing). I'm tempted to go with the Eagles, and I think I would have if they were at home (4-3 last year, but 2-4 on the road), but the Bobcats, 4-3 at home last season, win a close one.
Lamar @ North Texas- The Mean Green lead the Cardinals (7-5 last year) 5-2 in this series, winning the last 3. Lamar has wins in 1974 and 1984, with UNT winning in 1951, 1983, 1985, 1986, and 2017. North Texas wins.
Abilene Christian @ Tulsa- The Golden Hurricane and the Wildcats, 9-5 last year, will be sparring for the 1st time. Tulsa should win, but they have a new leader in HC Tre Lamb, who was 20-20 at Gardner-Webb (2020-23) and 7-5 at East Tennessee State (2024). An FCS team will pull an upset somewhere this weekend, and this seems the most likely choice, but I just can't get there. The Hurricane sweep away the Wildcats.
East Texas A&M @ SMU- ET A&M, formerly Texas A&M-Commerce, has never played SMU in football. The Mustangs will trample the Lions (3-9 last year).
Bryant @ New Mexico State- The Aggies and Bulldogs, 2-10 last year, will be playing for the 1st time. NMSU wins easily.
Georgia Southern @ Fresno State- This is yet another meeting between 2 teams that have never met before. The Bulldogs began their season last week with a 31-7 loss at Kansas, so they've had plenty to work on. The Eagles were 8-5 last season, their 1st winning season since 2020, and they were 4-2 on the road. The last time GS played a MWC team was in their opening game last year when they lost to Boise State 56-45 at home. FSU hasn't played a current Sun Belt Team since they defeated ULM in 1995 (before there was an SBC at the FBS level in football- it formed in 2001). This should be a competitive game, and having a game under their belts should help the Bulldogs, but the Eagles pull the upset on the road.
Northern Arizona @ Arizona State- The Sun Devils lead this series 26-7-1, winning the last 16 (since 1939). The teams split the 1st 2 meetings in 1915 and 1916, and played every year from 1924-1942, playing twice a year from 1929-1936, and then they continued the series after WWII from 1946-1950. The last 7 matchups have all been since 2003, with the latest in 2022. ASU fells the Lumberjacks, who were 8-5 last year.
Idaho @ Washington State- The Cougars lead this series 73-17-3, winning the last 10 (since 2001). The Vandals are the only team to move from the FBS ranks down to the FCS division, but they were a stellar 10-4 last season. Unfortunately, they lost their HC to New Mexico, and so are starting over. These teams first met in 1894, played again in 1899, and then yearly from 1901-1968 (minus 1943-44 for WWII), and even played twice in 1925 and 1945. They then resumed in 1970 after a 1-year hiatus, and after another 1-year hiatus, began playing yearly again from 1972-1978. After that they played twice in the 80s, twice in the 90s, and 11 times in the 21st century. Idaho's last win was in 2000. The teams alternated home and away for much of the series, but since 1968, only 3 times has this game not been played in Pullman- in 1970 in Spokane, in in 2003 in Seattle, and in 2004 in Moscow, ID. WSU wins on the Palouse.
California @ Oregon State- The Golden Bears lead the Beavers 40-37 (no ties!), winning 44-7 last year, but OSU has won 4 of the last 6, and 17 of the last 26 (since 1999). These teams have met every year since 1995, and met most years from 1917-1992, with their 1st matchup in 1905. The Beavers slipped to 5-7 last year after 3 consecutive winning seasons (25-14 combined record), so they will be looking to rebound. However, they lost 6 of their last 7 games after a 4-1 start, but they were 4-3 at home. OSU has won 3 straight opening games. Cal was 6-7, losing their bowl game to UNLV, but they won 3 of their last 5 regular season games and were 2-3 on the road. The Bears have also won 3 straight openers. OSU wins at home.
Hawaii @ Arizona- The Wildcats lead this series 5-1, 2-0 in Tucson, but the Rainbow Warriors won the most recent matchup in 2019. Hawaii started their season last week with a victory over P4 foe Stanford, and a 2nd P4 pelt on their wall would be good for both the Warriors and the Mountain West Conference. Arizona was only 4-8 last year, and 3-4 at home, but they've won their last 3 opening games, including over MWC opponent New Mexico last year (and at SDSU in 2022). Time for another upset. UH wins.
Utah @ UCLA- The Bruins lead the Utes 12-9, but Utah has won 6 of the last 7, winning their last meeting 14-7 in 2023 in Salt Lake City, and 3 of the last 4 played in Pasadena. Both teams were a disappointing 5-7 last year, but only Utah was expected to be much better. The Utes were a respectable 3-3 on the road, but lost 7 of their last 8 games of the 2024 season. However, they've won their last 2 opening games, and 3 of their last 4 (loss at Florida in 2022). UCLA was a miserable 2-4 at home, but did win 4 of their last 6 games, and have won their last 4 openers. I'm tempted to go with the Bruins, but I think Utah has a bounce-back season. Utes win a close one.
Colorado State @ Washington- I was surprised to learn that the Rams and Huskies have never met before. CSU was 8-5 last year, their 1st winning season since they were 7-6 in 2017, and their 1st time winning at least 8 games since they were 10-3 in 2014. They finished the season winning 6 of their last 8 games. The Rams were 2-3 last year on the road, and they haven't won an opening game since 2017, with most of those opponents P5 foes, but one being an FCS team. UW was 6-7 last year, losing their bowl to Louisville by 1 point, but they were 6-0 at home last season, and have won 20 consecutive home games with their last home loss against Wazzu in the last game of 2021. However, they lost 5 of their last 7 games, including that bowl loss. The Huskies have won their last 3 openers, and this win will make it 4 in a row.
Sunday, August 31
Virginia Tech vs South Carolina (Atlanta)- The Gamecocks lead this series 11-7-2, winning the last 2, but they haven't played since 1991. The 1st 4 meetings- in 1905 and from 1925-27- were held in Roanoke (1905) and in Richmond. Starting in 1933, they alternated home-and-home, and they've mostly competed in 3 or 4 year bursts- each year from 1933-36, 1968-70, 1972-74, and 1986-91 being a 6-year run. The Hokies were 6-7 last year, losing in the Mayo Bowl to Minnesota, which made them 2-5 away from Blacksburg, and they lost 4 of their last 5 games, including that bowl loss. SC was 9-4 last year, losing in the Citrus Bowl to Illinois, making them 4-2 away from Columbia, but they ended the season on a 6-game winning streak (before the bowl loss). VT has won 3 of their last 5 opening games while the Gamecocks have won 3 of their last 4. This could be a competitive game, with the interesting backstory of SC HC Shane Beamer being the son of longtime Hokies HC Frank Beamer. Gamecocks win.
Notre Dame @ Miami- The Fighting Irish lead the series 18-8-1, winning 4 of the last 5 (since 1990), but the Hurricanes won the most recent meeting in 2017 by a score of 41-8, and over the last 11 matchups lead 6-5. The big lead for the Irish is mostly due to winning 12 of the 1st 14, from 1955-1980 (with the tie in 1965 in Miami), and interestingly, the 1st 5 meetings were all in Miami, as they didn't play in South Bend until 1972. They've also competed in Japan (1979), in the 2010 Sun Bowl, and in Chicago in 2012, a win for ND since vacated due to academic misconduct by a student athletic trainer. Miami was 10-3 last year, with all 3 losses in the last 4 games by 6 points or less each (including the bowl loss to Iowa State), but they were 6-0 at home and have won their last 3 opening games. The Irish were 14-2, finishing the season with a loss in the National Championship Game. ND was 3-0 in true road games, and have won 8 of their last 11 true road games, but if you include any game away from South Bend (includes neutral site/bowl/CFP), they have won 11 of their last 12, 14 of their last 17, and 23 of their last 27. Obviously the Irish are not intimidated on the road. ND has also won 13 of their last 14 games, have 54 wins over the last 5 years (54-13, 80.6%). I'm tempted to go with the 'Canes, but since the Irish are one of my CFP picks, and Miami isn't, I'll go with the Fighting Irish to pull out a close one.
Monday, September 1
TCU @ North Carolina- The Tar Heels have won all 3 meetings with the Horned Frogs, in 1940, 1994, and 1997, with 2 of those 3 played in Chapel Hill, as will be this one. TCU was 9-4 last year, including a win in the New Mexico Bowl, and 4-2 on the road, and they've won 3 of their last 4 opening games. UNC was 6-7 with a bowl loss to UConn, and were only 3-4 in home games, and their on a 3-game losing streak, including that bowl loss. The Heels have won 3 consecutive openers. The Frogs are looking for their 1st back-to-back winning seasons since they had 5 in a row from 2014-18, and they have momentum as they ended last season with 4 straight wins. The Tar Heels are starting over, replacing one aging HC legend (Mack Brown) with another aging HC legend (Bill Belichick). TCU wins, and I don't think it will be particularly close.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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