Paul's Picks 2025 Week 4
Welcome Back!
Last week, I was a decent 59-11 (84.3% for the 2nd week in a row!), making me 210-39 overall, a winning percentage of 84.4% (down 0.01% from last week).
This week there are "only" 62 games, the fewest so far, and very few of them are what I would call compelling. However, we are finally getting into conference play a bit more, but there are quite a few teams enjoying an off week. Let's see if I can have another week above 80%.
So... on with the picks!
Thursday, September 18
Rice @ Charlotte- This series is tied at 3 wins apiece, with the 49ers winning 3 of the past 4, including 21-20 last year in Houston. However, the Owls have won 2 of the 3 games played in Charlotte. If Rice wants to have a winning season, they absolutely must win games like this, especially since there appear to be at least 5 more losses on their schedule- at Navy, at UTSA, Memphis, UNT, and at USF. In other words, they need to avoid upsets, and maybe pull one or 2 of their own. Charlotte is still looking for their 1st FBS win of the season. Owls win.
Friday, September 19
Tulsa @ Oklahoma State- The Cowboys lead this series 44-28-5, winning the last 10, and the Golden Hurricane haven't won in Stillwater since 1951! That's 23 straight losses for Tulsa on the road. However, OSU has lost 10 FBS games in a row, with their last win over this very same Hurricane squad last year by a score of 45-10. Some might say if Tulsa can't get them this year, they never may. I have a hard time picking the Pokes over anyone, but they had an off week last week, and maybe had a chance to fix some of their issues. OSU wins, but Tulsa could make it difficult if they can win the turnover battle and avoid penalties.
Iowa @ Rutgers- The Scarlet Knights have never defeated the Hawkeyes in 4 tries, with all 4 being played since 2016. In fact, Rutgers has been shut out twice, and have never scored more than 10 points against Iowa's defense. This year, RU has scored 139 points in 3 games for an average of 46.3 ppg, so maybe they can at least get to 13. Nah, won't happen. Iowa wins 20-6.
Saturday, September 20
Syracuse @ Clemson - The Tigers lead this series 10-2, winning the last 6, as the Orange has never beaten Clemson in Death Valley. However, Syracuse did win their very first matchup 41-0 in the 1996 Gator Bowl. This will be the Orange's 1st ACC game, as they are 2-1 on the young season, but the Tigers are already 0-1 in the ACC, and only 1-2 overall. I see both teams 2-2 after this game, but Clemson needs to get their offense going if they hope to make the ACC CG. Tigers win a close, low-scoring game.
South Carolina State @ USF- The Bulls finally get a break in their schedule as they will be meeting the Bulldogs for the 1st time. USF wins big.
Texas Tech @ Utah- The Red Raiders have won both contests with the Utes, winning in 1972 and 1973, but this will be the first time they will play in Salt Lake City. Both teams are 3-0, but neither one has really played anyone of consequence, so this is a huge tone-setter for both teams. Expect a high scoring affair, with the Utes outlasting TTU in a shootout.
Arkansas @ Memphis- The Tigers actually lead this series 3-2, winning the 1st 3 from 1992-94, but the Razorbacks won the next 2, in 1995 and 1998. However, Memphis is 2-1 at home in the series. The Piggies are coming off a 6-point loss to Ole Miss, so they should be focused on this game, even though it comes before a visit from Notre Dame. The Tigers are 3-0, and they've been dominant, but they've played an FCS squad and 2 bottom feeders from the Sun Belt, though both were on the road. A win against the Hogs would certainly make their case for inclusion in the CFP, if they can make it to the American Conference CG. This should actually be a competitive game, and I could see Memphis pulling the upset, but I'm going with Arkansas on the road.
Maryland @ Wisconsin- The Badgers are 4-0 against the Terrapins, with all games between 2014 and 2022, and only one being closer than 13 points: a 31-24 win in 2015. The Terps are 3-0, but have yet to play a P4 team. UW is 2-1, with a loss to Alabama on the road. UM was only 1-5 on the road last year, while Wisconsin was 3-4 at home. Badgers win.
Wofford @ Virginia Tech- The Hokies won the only prior meeting 27-7 in 2022 against the Terriers, and they'll win this one, too, despite this being the 1st game for interim HC Philip Montgomery.
SMU @ TCU- The Horned Frogs lead this series 53-43-7, winning 19 of the last 24 (since 1999), but the Mustangs have won 3 of the last 5, including 66-42 last year. This is a game that has been played almost annually since they 1st met in 1915. The Ponies are 2-1, already losing to Baylor, TCU's fellow Big 12 member. The Frogs are 2-0, with a win over North Carolina in their opener. True rivalries can go either way, and you can generally throw out their respective records. TCU wins, though they've lost 2 of their last 3 in Fort Worth.
Bowling Green @ Louisville- The Cardinals and Falcons will be meeting on the gridiron for the very first time. UL is 2-0, with a win over James Madison, and they were 4-2 at home last year (2-0 so far this year). BGSU is 2-1, with a win over Liberty and a 14-point loss at Cincinnati, and they were 4-2 on the road in '24. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if the Falcons kept it close until halftime, and maybe even longer, but Louisville will come out on top.
UNLV @ Miami, Oh- The Rebels and Redhawks have never met before. UNLV is 3-0 and coming off their bye week, and they own a victory over P4 team UCLA. Miami is 0-2 and also coming off a bye, but their losses are at Wisconsin and Rutgers, but neither was closer than 17 points. Rebels win.
North Texas @ Army- The Black Knights lead the series 6-2, including a win in the 2016 Heart of Dallas Bowl and a 14-3 win last year. The Mean Green are 1-2 in West Point, but all the games have been relatively close, with the largest margin of victory being 17 points. UNT is 3-0 for the 1st time since 2018 (when they started 4-0) and coming off a big win over Washington State. Army is 1-1 with a win over Kansas State and a loss to an FCS team, and they are coming out of an off week. The key will be the tempo of the game. If the Black Knights can control the ball and avoid turnovers, they are likely to win. If the Mean Green can get out to a lead and get a turnover or 2, they could win in a rout. This is the best UNT has looked since they were 9-4 in 2018, so I think they pull the upset.
UAB @ Tennessee- The Volunteers are 5-0 versus the Blazers, with all 5 played in Knoxville. After this game, they will be 6-0. Vols win big.
Wagner @ Central Michigan- The Chippewas will defeat the Seahawks to claim victory in this 1st time matchup.
Oregon State @ Oregon- The Ducks lead this rivalry series 67-48-10, winning 14 of the last 17, including the last 2. The Beavers haven't won in Eugene since 2007 (8 straight losses). This year, the teams are complete opposites: Oregon is 3-0 with no win closer than 20 points, and OSU is 0-3 with no loss closer than 9 points. The Quack Attack smashes the Beavers. UO wins.
Purdue @ Notre Dame- Nobody would have ever thought that the Boilermakers would come into this game with a better record than the Fighting Irish, but here we are. ND comes in with a 58-26-2 lead, winning the last 9 (though wins in 2012 and 2013 were vacated) in this in-state rivalry. Purdue hasn't won in South Bend since 2004. The Irish are an astonishing 0-2, with both losses by a combined 4 points to current Top 10 teams Miami and Texas A&M. The Boilermakers are 2-1, with wins against MAC and FCS teams, and a loss to USC at home. Irish win big.
Kent State @ FSU- The Golden Flashes and Seminoles will be meeting for the first time, and my guess is that KSU will wish they had never met. FSU wins easily.
Auburn @ Oklahoma- The Sooners have won all 3 prior meetings: 40-22 in the 1972 Sugar Bowl, 35-19 in the 2017 Sugar Bowl, and 27-21 last year. Both teams are 3-0 on the young season, each with a win against a fellow P4 squad, OU over Michigan at home and AU over Baylor in Waco. The Tigers have former Oklahoma QB Jackson Arnold, and he so far has thrived in the War Eagles' system. OU's new QB, John Mateer, is also thriving, and has rocketed up to become one of the early Heisman Trophy favorites. With the game in Norman, I expect the Sooners to prevail over the Plainsmen. OU wins.
Tulane @ Ole Miss- The Rebels lead this series 44-28, winning the last 13 (since 1989), though the 2010 win has since been vacated. Most of Tulane's wins came between 1895 and 1939, as they've won only 8 times since that win in '39, and they haven't won in Oxford since 1988, their last win in the series. But the Green Wave are 3-0 with wins over 2 P4 teams already, and they would like nothing more than to add Ole Miss to that list. The Rebels were played closely by 2 lower tier SEC teams, beating Kentucky and Arkansas by a combined 13 points, so they appear to be vulnerable. But I just don't see that happening. Ole Miss upends Tulane.
Michigan @ Nebraska- The Wolverines have an 8-4-1 lead in this series, winning the last 4 (since 2018). Nebraska owns wins in 2012 and 2013, in the 2005 Alamo Bowl, and in 1962, but they are only 1-2-1 in Lincoln, including the 6-6 tie in 1911. UM won the 1st contest, in 1905, and they have wins in 1917, 2011, and the 1986 Fiesta Bowl. The Cornhuskers are 3-0, defeating Cincinnati in Kansas City and overwhelming 2 outmatched teams. Michigan is 2-1, losing at Oklahoma, and winning at home vs 2 G5 teams. Huskers pull the upset at home.
North Carolina @ UCF- The Tar Heels and Knights will be meeting for the 1st time. UNC is 2-1, routing 2 lesser teams and getting routed themselves by TCU in the opener. UCF is 2-0, also against 2 inferior teams. I'm not sure I have much faith in either program, but the Knights are coming out of their off week and are at home. UCF wins.
Ball State @ UConn- The Cardinals are 4-0 vs the Huskies, winning all 4 games between 2000 and 2022, and 2 both at home and at Storrs. Both teams have just 1 win, and both are against an FCS outfit. Ball State has lost at Purdue and Auburn, 2 P4 teams, while UConn has lost at Syracuse in OT and at Delaware in OT. Both teams need this win to have any hope of reaching a bowl game, because getting 5 more wins following a loss here might be near impossible. Huskies finally break through and win, but they better hope it doesn't go into OT.
James Madison @ Liberty- The Dukes lead this series 12-6, but they haven't played as FBS members, with the Flames winning the last meeting in the first round of the 2014 FCS Playoffs. JMU is coming out of their off week, and LU has losses at Jax St and at Bowling Green. Dukes win to hand the Flames their 3rd consecutive loss on the road this year, and their 5th consecutive loss away from Lynchburg.
Louisiana @ Eastern Michigan- The Ragin' Cajuns hold a 2-1 lead, winning the last 2 in 2006 and 2022, with Eastern Michigan's lone win coming in 2005. Each team has won the games played in their home stadiums. The Eagles have had a terrible start to the season, losing to Texas State and an FCS team, as well as at Kentucky. Louisiana has lost to both of their FBS opponents, but has a win over FCS McNeese. One of these teams will get their 1st FBS win of the season, and my (figurative) money is on the Ragin' Cajuns.
Troy @ Buffalo- These teams have met only once before, in the 2018 Dollar General Bowl, with the Trojans pulling out the 42-32 win. Troy is only 1-2, with its win over an FCS team. The Bulls are 2-1, but haven't beaten anyone of note. Flip a coin. Troy wins.
Toledo @ Western Michigan- The Rockets lead this series 46-32, winning 5 of the last 7, and 10 of the last 14, including 49-31 in their last contest in 2023. However, the Broncos have won the last 2 played in Kalamazoo, and 3 of the last 4. Toledo is 2-1, losing by only 8 to Kentucky, while WMU is 0-3, losing to 2 Big Ten teams and in OT to what may be a very good North Texas team. The Rockets are the better team, with better talent, but I don't know; the MAC is just weird. W Mich wins in an upset at home.
Gardner-Webb @ Ohio- The Bobcats are 3-0 against the Runnin' Bulldogs, and none of the games have been close. Ohio wins.
NC State @ Duke- The Blue Devils lead this series 43-37-5, winning the last 2, and 4 of the last 5 (since 2009). This year, the Wolfpack is undefeated with a 3-0 record and wins over 2 ACC opponents (though only 1 counts in the standings), but their wins are by a combined 21 pts, or 7 ppg. Duke is only 1-2, with no FBS wins, but were 6-1 at home last year (only loss in OT to SMU by 1 point). Blue Devils pull the mild upset at home.
Northern Illinois @ Mississippi State- The Bulldogs and Huskies will be playing for the 1st time when they meet in Starkville this Saturday. MSU is 3-0 and are looking to go 4-0 for the 1st time since 2014, when the Bulldogs started 9-0, and ended the season 10-3 and ranked #11 in the final AP Poll. NIU is only 1-1, but they had a bye week last week, and they have road wins at Ga Tech in 2021, Boston College in 2023, and Notre Dame in 2024, so they probably won't be intimidated by a few thousand cowbells. I actually think the Huskies might get the upset, but my pick is MSU.
Temple @ Georgia Tech- The Owls won the only prior matchup 24-2 in 2019 in Philadelphia, so the Yellow Jackets will be looking for revenge. The only real danger for GT is coming out flat after their huge win last week over Clemson, and perhaps looking ahead to their tilt at Wake Forest next week. Temple is hoping that will be the case, and that they can get some turnovers that they can convert into TDs. That's a lot to hope for against these Jackets. GT wins easily.
Idaho @ San Jose State- The Spartans lead the series with the Vandals 13-10-1, winning the last meeting in 2010, but Idaho has won 3 of the last 4. SJSU has had a rough start to the '25 season, but had an off week to correct their problems. Spartans win.
West Virginia @ Kansas- The Mountaineers have a commanding 11-2 lead, winning 32-28 last year, and all but the first game, won 21-0 by WVU in 1941, have been played since 2012. The Mountaineers are 4-1 in Lawrence, but this is a different breed of Jayhawks, and one coming into this game following their off week. KU wins a close one.
Delaware @ FIU- Surprisingly, both teams are 2-1, and both losses were to P4 teams, and each has a win over a fellow G5 team- FIU over rival FAU, and Delaware over UConn in OT. The Blue Hens are making their 1st foray into the FBS and CUSA, and seem to be on par with the rest of the conference. The Panthers are off to a fast start under 1st year HC Willie Simmons, and are attempting to achieve their 1st winning season since they were 9-4 in 2018. FIU wins at home, maybe on a late FG or in OT, in this 1st time matchup.
Arkansas State @ Kennesaw State- The Red Wolves and Owls have never met before. ASU and KSU are both 1-2, with no FBS wins between them. But each has played P4 team within 8 points, losing by a combined 9 points. Red Wolves ground the Owls.
Duquesne @ Akron- The Zips will get their 1st win of the 2025 season with a win over the Dukes as they play for the 1st time.
South Carolina @ Missouri- The Tigers lead the Gamecocks 8-6, winning 5 of the last 6, but SC won 34-30 last year. However, Mizzou is 5-2 in Columbia, Missouri. The Tigers have looked dominant in their 3 wins, but the Gamecocks are practically in desperation mode, as they can't afford another SEC loss if they hope to secure a spot in the SEC CG, especially with LSU, Oklahoma, Alabama, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M still on the schedule, with 3 of those on the road. Mizzou pulls away in the 2nd half.
Murray State @ Jacksonville State- The Gamecocks are 13-1 vs the Racers, winning the last 8, but their one loss was in Jacksonville in 2013. JSU wins.
Marshall @ Middle Tennessee- The Thundering Herd hold a 6-5 lead in the series, but the Blue Raiders have won 3 of the last 4, and are 4-1 in Murfreesboro. MTSU started off the season with a loss to an FCS team at home, then were routed at Wisconsin, but last week they upset Nevada in Reno. Marshall has a win over an FCS team, but also has a loss to FBS newcomer Missouri State. Flip a coin, but I'm going with the home team. Blue Raiders eke out a win.
UT Martin @ Missouri State- The Bears are 3-2 vs the Skyhawks, and are 2-1 in Springfield. Mo State wins to extend their lead.
Nevada @ WKU- The Wolf Pack and Hilltoppers will be meeting for the 1st time. Nevada is 1-2 with their only win over an FCS team while WKU is 2-1, defeating Sam Houston in their opener and losing to Toledo last week. This is yet another game between 2 mediocre (at best) teams that could go either way. Hilltoppers win at home.
Boise State @ Air Force- Like South Carolina in the SEC, the Air Force Academy is staring at a possible 0-2 start in the conference. Both the Falcons and the Broncos are 1-1, and neither has an FBS win, so one of them will get their 1st this weekend. The Broncos lead the series 8-4, winning the last 2, and they've won 6 of the last 7, and the last 3 played in Colorado Springs. Boise State was off last week, so maybe they have fixed what ailed them against USF in their opener. BSU wins.
Maine @ Georgia Southern- The Eagles are 4-0 against the Black Bears, and like this one, all the contests have been in Statesboro. GS wins again.
Coastal Carolina @ South Alabama- The Chanticleers hold a 2-1 advantage over the Jaguars, and are 1-1 in Mobile, but they haven't played since 2021. Both teams are 1-2, with a combined 2 wins over FCS squads and combined losses to 2 P4 teams and 2 from the American Conference. The difference is that SA has looked competitive (lost by a combined 18 points) while CCU has not (losses by a combined 79 points). And the Jaguars have played better competition. SA wins to give the West Division a 2-0 lead on the East.
Florida @ Miami, Fl- The U has a 30-27 lead in this series, winning 41-17 last year, but it's been 2-2 over the last 4 meetings (since 2008), with Miami winning the last 3 played at home (since 1987). The teams have played twice in bowl games: a 27-10 Canes win in the 2004 Peach Bowl, and a 37-20 Miami win in the 2001 Sugar Bowl. The Hurricanes are 3-0 with 2 big wins over Notre Dame and USF, and the Gators are 1-2, with losses to LSU and that same USF team. UF is getting desperate to get an FBS win , but there aren't many opportunities left, with their schedule. This could be a good game, but Miami wins.
Illinois @ Indiana- The Fighting Illini lead this series 46-25-2, winning 48-45 in the last meeting in 2023 in Champaign, but the Hoosiers have won 4 of the last 5, and 5 of the last 7 played in Bloomington. For the 1st time in who knows how long, both teams are undefeated coming into this game (it helps that this is only the 4th game of the season for both), but neither team has played anyone of consequence: 2 FCS teams, and teams from the ACC, MAC, SBC, and CUSA. This could be a game between 2 great teams (or 2 terrible ones) and we won't know until one or both plays one of the top teams in the Big Ten. Illinois does have USC and Ohio State in the next 3 weeks, both at home, while Indiana still has Iowa, Oregon, and Penn State, all on the road. The Illini have the easier path, but it won't matter if they can't get by the Hoosiers. Illinois is the pick.
Georgia State @ Vanderbilt- The Panthers upset the Commodores 36-32 last year in Atlanta, so Vandy is keen on getting payback. GSU has already been destroyed by 1 SEC team (Ole Miss), and I expect the 'Dores to do the same. Vandy wins big.
Washington @ Washington State- The Huskies have a commanding 76-34-6 lead in this series, and have won 12 of the last 16, but the Cougars won 24-19 last year. WSU hasn't won in Pullman since 2012, losing 4 in a row, and while they are 2-1 this season, they just got flattened by North Texas. UW is 2-0, and is coming out of their off week. Huskies win the Apple Cup on the Palouse.
Stanford @ Virginia- The Cavaliers and Cardinal have never clashed on the gridiron before, and this 1st meeting will be with both as ACC members. UVA is 2-1, with a close OOC loss to NC State, while Stanford is 1-2 after an upset of Boston College. Were this game being played in California, I might go with Stanford, but my gut says the Wahoos win at home.
Arizona State @ Baylor- The Sun Devils bedeviled the Bears in their only prior contest, winning 34-13 in 1990. These are 2 teams expected to finish at or near the top of the Big 12, but each already has a loss to an SEC team. These look like evenly matched teams, so expect a close game, but the Bears win at home.
BYU @ East Carolina- The Pirates actually lead this series 2-1, winning the last 2, and all 3 have been played since 2015. The Cougars are 2-0, and were off last week while ECU is 2-1, losing by only 7 at NC State. This should be a competitive game, but BYU comes out on top.
Southern Miss @ La Tech- The Golden Eagles have a big lead in this series, 36-17, winning 5 of the last 7, and 12 of the last 17, including 35-19 in their last contest in 2021, but the Bulldogs have won 2 of the last 3. USM is 2-1 with a loss to resurgent Mississippi State and a win over App State, as LT is also 2-1, losing to LSU and also owning a conference win over NMSU. This should actually be a really good game, and either team could win, but I think the Golden Eagles are just a little bit better.
SE La @ LSU- The Bayou Bengals won the only previous meeting 31-0 in 2018 against the Lions, and I'll be shocked if this game is any closer than that one. Tigers win big.
Sam Houston @ Texas- The Longhorns destroyed the Bearkats by a score of 56-3 way back in 2006, and I expect this game to be closer, but not by much. However, if UT QB Arch Manning continues to struggle, the Horns may want to consider a QB change before they get into SEC play. UT wins.
McNeese @ Utah State- The Aggies and Cowboys will be playing for the 1st time, and USU is going to win.
Nicholls @ Texas State- The Bobcats hold a slim 16-15 lead over the Colonels, but a win will extend that lead. TSU wins.
ULM @ UTEP- The Miners and Warhawks have met once before, with UTEP winning 31-6 in 2020. Each team has a win over an FCS outfit, but UTEP has 2 losses (to Texas and Utah State) while ULM has only 1 (to Alabama), as they were off last week. Flip a coin. UTEP wins at home.
UTSA @ Colorado State- The Rams have won both matchups, in 2015 and 2016. UTSA is off to a rough start, losing to Texas A&M and to Texas State, with their only win over an FCS team. CSU is 1-1, with a loss to Washington and a win over an FCS squad, but they were off last week. This is yet another toss-up game. I have a feeling my pick percentage is going way down this week. Meep! Meep! Roadrunners win.
Wyoming @ Colorado- The Buffaloes have a lopsided 23-3-1 lead in the series, winning the last 3, though their win in 1997 was forfeited. The Cowboys lost to Utah last week, but are 2-1 on the season. CU has 2 losses, to Ga Tech and to Houston, so they'll be trying to get the season going in the right direction. Buffs win.
California @ San Diego State- The Golden Bears have a narrow 5-4 edge against the Aztecs, winning 31-10 last year, but SDSU is 4-0 in games played in San Diego. However, I'm starting to believe Cal QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is no flash-in-the-pan. Bears devour the Aztecs.
Michigan State @ USC- This series is tied at 4 wins each, with the Spartans winning the last 3, including the last 2 in the 1988 Rose Bowl and the 1990 Sun Bowl. Both teams are 3-0, but the Trojans have been much more dominant. USC wins.
Fresno State @ Hawaii- The Bulldogs lead the series 30-25-1, but the Rainbow Warriors have won 3 of the last 4, including 21-20 last year in Fresno, but the Bulldogs have won 5 of the last 6 played in Honolulu. Both teams are 3-1, but only Hawaii has a P4 win to their credit, even if it is only UCLA. Rainbow Warriors win a close one.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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