Paul's Picks 2025 Week 5
Welcome Back!
Last week, I fell way below 80%, finishing 45-17 (a measly 72.6%), making me 255-56 overall with a winning percentage of 82.0% (down 2.3% from last week).
This week there are "only" 53 games, the fewest so far, but there are some great matchups! And we go full bore into conference competition. Let's see if I can get back above 80%.
So... on with the picks!
Thursday, September 25
Army @ East Carolina- The Pirates lead the series 8-1, but the Black Knights won 45-28 last year in West Point. All of ECU's wins came between 1995 and 2004, and last year's game was the 1st time Army held them to under 30 points. Both teams have been inconsistent in the early part of this season, with Army WP at 1-2/0-1, losing to UNT last week and to FCS Tarleton State to open the season, both at home (and both in OT), but beating Kansas State in Manhattan. ECU is 2-2, shutting out CCU and obliterating their FCS foe, and losing by 7 to 3-1 NC State and by 21 to undefeated BYU. I have no idea whether Jekyll or Hyde will show up to play this game (for either team), but I'm going with the home team. Pirates win, maybe in OT.
Friday, September 26
FSU @ Virginia- The Seminoles hold a 14-4 lead in this series, but it's tied 3-3 since 2005 (though FSU vacated one of those wins, the one in 2006), with the Cavaliers winning the most recent matchup 31-24 in 2019. The Noles had a disastrous season last year, but appear to have bounced back this year, including a win over Alabama in their opener. UVA is 3-1 to start the season, but they look exactly as they usually do: thouroughly mediocre. The Wahoos have wins over CCU, and FCS team, and Stanford, all at home, with their lone loss on the road at NC State by 4 points. FSU wins, but the Hoos keep it close into the 2nd quarter, at least, and maybe beyond.
TCU @ Arizona State- The Sun Devils have won both prior meetings with the Horned Frogs, but those were in 1974 and 1975. TCU is 3-0, with wins over UNC and SMU from the ACC. Unfortunately, they are a part of the Big 12, which, this year at least, seems to be better (the conference is 6-1 vs the ACC). ASU is 3-1/1-0, getting by Baylor last week to earn their 1st Big 12 victory of the season, but their loss was at Miss State. These appear to be evenly matched teams, and both have quality QBs. I'll go with the Sun Devils to win at home.
Houston @ Oregon State- The Cougars lead the series 2-1, winning the last 2 in 1961 and 1970, so it's been a minute or 2 since they last played. OSU's lone win came in 1960, in a game played in Portland. UH had a bye last week, and the Beavers are 0-4, with 3 of the 4 losses by 19+ points (closest is by 9 to Fresno St). Cougars maul the Beavers.
Saturday, September 20
USC @ Illinois - The Trojans lead the series 11-2, but they haven't played since the Men of Troy bested the Fighting Illini 49-17 in the 2008 Rose Bowl. USC is 5-0 in games played in Champaign, and 1-0 in Urbana, so they are 6-0 against the Illini in the state of Illinois. The Trojans are 4-0, and have been mostly dominant, winning all 4 by at least 14 points. Illinois is 3-1, but just got flattened by Indiana by a score of 63-10. Can they bounce back from a loss like that? If this game were in Los Angeles, I would pick USC in a heartbeat, but teams on the West Coast (in the Big Ten or ACC) have struggled when they travel to the East Coast or Midwest. I still think the Trojans are the better team. USC wins.
Georgia Tech @ Wake Forest- The Yellow Jackets have dominated this series, leading 24-8, winning each of the last 4 (since 2009). However, the Demon Deacons have perhaps the biggest win in the series: a 9-6 slugfest in the 2006 ACC Championship game. These teams first played in 1917, and met 3 additional times through 1921, but they didn't start playing regularly again until 1982. GT is 4-0 this season with wins over Clemson and at Colorado, and they haven't lost in Winston-Salem since 1999. WF is 2-1, with a narrow 1-point win over Kennesaw State at home and a 10-point loss to NC State, also at home. The only thing in the Deacons favor is that they were off last week, but the Jackets basically were, too, as they played Temple. GT wins.
Notre Dame @ Arkansas- The Fighting Irish and the Razorbacks have never faced each other on the gridiron, which is surprising. Neither team is having the start to the season that they wanted or expected. The Piggies are only 2-2, losing their last 2 games by a combined 7 points, but both were on the road- the Hogs have won their last 6 non-conference home games, and 8 of their last 9. ND is 1-2, winning last week over Purdue to break a 3-game losing streak, their longest since they lost the 1st 2 games of the '22 season following a loss in the 2021 Fiesta Bowl. Irish win.
Rutgers @ Minnesota- The Golden Gophers lead this series 3-1, and are 2-0 in Minneapolis, but the Scarlet Knights won 26-19 last year. Rutgers is 3-1 after losing to Iowa last week, but their wins are over 2 MAC teams and an FCS squad. Minnesota is 2-1, also with wins over MAC and FCS teams, and lost their most recent contest (2 weeks ago) to Cal- yes, the same Bears that got shut out by San Diego State last week. In the scheme of things, this game is pretty irrelevant, but a loss with this pick still brings down my percentage. Oh well; after a roll of the dice, Gophers dig themselves out of a hole and procure the win.
Duke @ Syracuse- The Blue Devils lead the series 4-1, but 2 of the wins came in 1938 and 1939, though they are 3-0 at Syracuse. The Orange got their lone win in 2019 in Durham. Duke is 2-2 (0-1 on the road), losing to Illinois and at Tulane, and beating NC State last weekend. Syracuse is 3-1, but hasn't beaten anyone of consequence, which is a weird thing to say since they are coming off of a victory over Clemson (1-3) in Death Valley. Their other FBS win was over UConn in OT, and their loss was to Tennessee. This is another relatively inconsequential game, though though both are 1-0 in the ACC. Syracuse wins at home.
Louisville @ Pittsburgh- This is an even series, with the Panthers holding an 11-10 edge, winning 7 of the last 10, but the Cardinals have won 2 of the last 3, including 37-9 last year. Pitt has won the last 3 played in Pittsburgh, and 5 of the last 6. UL is 3-0, but with no P4 wins. Pitt is 2-1, losing to WVU in their only P4 contest. This is the ACC opener for both squads, and Louisville's 1st road game of the season. Cardinals win, for no reason other than I think they are the better team.
Cincinnati @ Kansas- The Jayhawks lead 2-1, winning in 1995 and 2023, and losing in 1997. This will be the 1st time they play in Lawrence since their 1st meeting in 1995. KU is 3-1/1-0, with their only loss on the road at Missouri. The Bearcats are 2-1, losing to Nebraska by 3 in Kansas City in the season opener, but they had a bye week last week. I expect a competitive game, as I like the way both of these teams have played this year. Kansas wins a close one.
UCF @ Kansas State- The Wildcats are 2-0 vs the Knights, winning both contests in Manhattan in 2010 and 2023. However, KSU, my preseason pick for Big 12 champion, is only 1-3, with no FBS wins, though they were off last week. UCF is 3-0, with a win over UNC last week, so they look much improved from last year. I still think the Wildcats will bounce back and make a run. KSU wins.
South Alabama @ North Texas- The Mean Green have a 2-0 lead in the series, winning in 2012, and 52-38 last year. UNT is 4-0 so far this year, with wins over Washington State and Army in OT. The Jaguars are 1-3, losing all 3 FBS games. The Mean Green win again.
Bowling Green @ Ohio- The Falcons lead this series 41-32-2, but the Bobcats have won 7 of the last 8, and the last 4 played in Athens. Ohio is 2-2 with a win over WVU and 2 P4 losses, while BGSU is also 2-2 with 2 P4 losses and a win over Liberty. This is likely to be close, but Ohio extends their recent dominance and wins for the 9th time out of the last 10 matchups.
Utah State @ Vanderbilt- The Commodores and Aggies will be playing for the 1st time. Vandy wins and stays undefeated.
Eastern Michigan @ Central Michigan- The Chippewas hold a commanding 64-32-6 lead, winning the last 6 played in Mount Pleasant, but the Eagles have won 2 of the last 3. The Chips have losses to 2 P4 teams, neither of them close, but they do have a win at SJSU. EMU is only 1-3, even losing to an FCS team, but won last week over Louisiana at home, making them 1-1 against the SBC West Division. I'm hoping EMU has turned things around, but I think CMU wins this at home.
Georgia Southern @ James Madison- After the Dukes won the 1st meeting in 1985, the Eagles have won 9 of the next 10, including 28-14 last year in Statesboro, but JMU won the last time this game was played in Harrisonburg, in 2023. The Dukes are 2-1, with a win at Liberty and a loss at Louisiana, who just lost to previously winless Eastern Michigan. GS is 2-2, with blowout losses at Fresno State and USC and a win over Jax State at home. Neither team has looked impressive in the early going, and in cases like these, I tend to favor the home team. JMU wins a close one.
Arkansas State @ ULM- The Red Wolves lead this series 31-14, winning the last 15, meaning it was only a 16-14 lead at one point (after the 2009 game). ASU is 1-3, with no FBS wins and losses at Arkansas and to Iowa State, both forgivable, and with a loss last week to Kennesaw State, which is a little less so. The Warhawks are 2-1, losing to Alabama, but winning their matchup with a CUSA team (UTEP). ULM wins and breaks the streak.
Ohio State @ Washington- The Buckeyes lead the series 9-3, winning the last 4, but they haven't played since the 2019 Rose Bowl (which is surprisingly the only time they ever met in a bowl), and this will be their 1st meeting as members of the same conference. They played twice in the 1950s, 3 times in the 60s, once in the 80s, 3 times in the 90s, and twice in the Aughts. OSU is 4-2 in games played in Seattle. The Huskies are 3-0, but haven't really played anyone. The Bucks are also 3-0, with a home victory over Texas, but this will be their 1st road game of the season, meaning the 1st time in a hostile environment for redshirt freshman QB Julian Sayin. So far, UW has had the better scoring offense and OSU has been better defensively. I wouldn't be surprised by a Huskies upset, but I'm going with the Buckeyes.
LSU @ Ole Miss- The Tigers have a 64-42-4 lead in this series, but the Rebels have won 2 of the last 4, both played in Oxford. Both teams are 4-0, and Ole Miss is 2-0 in the SEC while LSU is only 1-0. The Rebs have a 6-game home winning streak, and have won 16 of their last 17 at home. The Bayou Bengals have lost 2 of their last 3 road games, but are only 12-14 in games away from Death Valley since the beginning of the 2021 season (10-9 since HC Brian Kelly arrived in 2022). All the stats and recent history point towards an Ole Miss win, but my gut says LSU wins. And I usually go with my gut.
Auburn @ Texas A&M- The Aggies hold the 8-7 edge, including a win in the 1986 Cotton Bowl, winning the last 2 played in College Station, but the Tigers have won 2 of the last 3 overall. The War Eagles lost a close one to Oklahoma last week due to some questionable calls (or non-calls...), and they've lost 5 of their last 7 away from The Plains. TAMU is undefeated at 3-0, as they were off last week, including a 1-point win over Notre Dame in their last game, winning their last 4 at home (last home loss was to Vandy). Aggies eke out a win over the Plainsmen.
Utah @ West Virginia- The Utes and Mountaineers are both coming off losses, the 1st for Utah and the 2nd for WVU. Though both are 0-1 in the Big 12, they each have a win over a P4 non-conference foe. These teams have met twice previously, both in bowl games, with the Utes winning 32-6 in the 1964 Liberty Bowl, and then again 30-14 in the 2017 Heart of Dallas Bowl. With both teams winless in the early going in the Big 12, they desperately need a victory to stay relevant in the conference race. Utah wins.
Indiana @ Iowa- I'll admit it; I haven't fully bought in on the Hoosiers. And to be honest, I'm kinda afraid that when I do believe, they'll probably start losing again (see Cal from last week). The Hawkeyes have a huge 46-28-4 lead in this series, winning the last 4 (since 2014), and 8 of the last 9 (since 2008), and they haven't lost in Iowa City since 2007, but they last played in 2021, when IU was just 2-10, and the time before was in 2018. The Hoosiers are 4-0, and just destroyed a top-10-ranked (at the time of the game) Illinois by 53 points. Iowa is 3-1, losing by 3 to Iowa State, and after a win over Rutgers, both teams are 1-0 in the Big Ten. The Hawkeyes have won their last 7 home games, 11 of their last 12 at home, and 16 of their last 18 in Kinnick Stadium. Indiana will be playing their 1st game away from Bloomington this season, but were 3-2 away from home last season, with both losses to the 2024 National Championship Game participants: Ohio State and Notre Dame. This may be the kiss of death, but I'm all in on the Hoosiers after last week's pummeling of Illinois. Indiana wins.
UCLA @ Northwestern- This series is tied 3-3, with the Wildcats winning the 1st 3 in the 1930s and 40s and the Bruins winning the last 3, in 1969, 1970, and the 2015 Sun Bowl. Both teams have been disasters this season, with no FBS wins between them, so whoever wins this game will get their 1st. Between them, their 5 losses have been by an average of 21 points, with Northwestern losing their last 6 FBS home games, and UCLA losing 4 of their last 6 road games. Something has to give as this is a battle of teams exemplifying a stoppable offense going against a porous defense. A resistible force meeting a movable object as it were. Flip a coin. Wildcats win at home.
California @ Boston College- Back in 1986, the Eagles defeated the Golden Bears 21-15 in Chestnut Hill. And so they meet again in the same location. BC is 1-2 with no FBS wins and losses to Michigan State and Stanford. Cal is 3-1, with wins over Minnesota and at Oregon State, but an inexplicable 34-0 loss to San Diego State last week. I think that was just a blip. Bears ground the Eagles.
Baylor @ Oklahoma State- The Cowboys have just fired legendary HC Mike Gundy and replaced him with interim Doug Meacham. OSU has been a dumpster fire last season and this season, losing 11 consecutive FBS games, and I'm having a hard time seeing any wins the rest of this season, even though they have a "favorable" Big 12 schedule. But when you lose to Tulsa at home... Anyway, the Cowboys lead the series 23-20, but the Bears have won 7 of the last 11, including in the 2021 Big 12 CG and 38-28 last year, and 2 of the last 4 played in Stillwater. The Bears are just as disappointed in their 2-2 start, as they are 0-1 in the Big 12. Baylor wins.
UConn @ Buffalo- The Huskies hold a commanding 17-5 lead in the series, winning 9 of the last 10 (since 2002), including 47-3 last year, but the Bulls won the last time this game was played in Buffalo, in 2013. UConn is 2-2, with 1 win over a MAC team- Ball State- already, and both of their losses were in OT. Buffalo is also 2-2. losing to Troy and at Minnesota by just a combined 17 points. This should be a good game, as both teams were 9-4 last year, with the Bulls winning 6 of their last 8 at home and the Huskies having lost 5 of their last 7 true road games (did win their bowl over UNC). Buffalo wins at home.
San Diego State @ Northern Illinois- The Huskies will be playing someone from the conference they are joining next year, but the Aztecs will be leaving for the Pac 12 just as NIU arrives. SDSU has won all 6 previous meetings, but 2 were in the 1960s, 2 in the '70s, and the final 2 in 2016 and 2017. The Aztecs are coming off of a beatdown of Cal, but that followed being routed by woeful Washington State. The Huskies have lost both of their FBS games, but both were on the road at P4 opponents. If SDSU wins this, they will match last year's 3 wins in just their 4th game. Aztecs win.
Rice @ Navy- The Owls actually lead this series 7-6, winning 24-10 last year, but the Midshipmen have won 4 of the last 5 (since 2003). However, Navy is only 2-2 in games played in Annapolis, but they do own a 20-7 win in the 1958 Cotton Bowl. Rice is off to a phenomenal 3-1 start, with their only loss to Houston, and they are 2-0 on the road this season (0-6 last year). Navy is 3-0 and were off last week, but they haven't really played anyone, though they are 2-0 in the American Conference. The Owls have a chance in this game, and a win would go a long way in proving their legitimacy, but I think Navy prevails in the end.
Akron @ Toledo- The Rockets only lead this series 13-10, winning 4 of the last 5, including in the 2017 MAC Championship Game, but the Zips won 21-14 in OT last year in the final game of the season. However, Akron hasn't won in Toledo since 1937, losing 7 in a row there. Between these 2 teams, there is 1 FBS win, 3 P4 losses, and 1 G5 loss, but the Rockets lost to WMU last week to drop them to 0-1 in the MAC. Toledo wins at home again.
Lindenwood @ Miami, Oh- The Redhawks will defeat the Lions in this 1st time meeting to earn their 1st win of the 2025 season.
New Mexico State @ New Mexico- The Lobos have dominated the Aggies, leading the Rio Grande Rivalry 74-35-5, including a 50-40 win last year, but NMSU has won 2 of the last 3, and 2 of the last 4 played in Albuquerque. This year, the Aggies are 2-1, with a win over Tulsa and a loss to La Tech on the road. The Lobos are also 2-1, with a win at UCLA and a loss at Michigan. Both teams were off last week to prepare for the Battle of I-25. UNM wins to extend their lead in the series.
Tulane @ Tulsa- The Golden Hurricane hold a 13-7 lead in the series, but the Green Wave have won the last 2, 5 of the last 7, and 2 of the last 3 played in Tulsa. Tulane is 3-1 this season, with P4 wins over Northwestern and Duke, both at home, but they were stomped last weekend at Ole Miss. Tulsa is 2-2, losing to Navy and at New Mexico State, but winning last week over rival Oklahoma State. Both teams return to form. Tulane comes out on top.
Hawaii @ Air Force- The Falcons lead the series 14-8-1, but the Rainbow Warriors have won 2 of the last 3, including the last one played at the Air Force Academy. UH is 3-2 with a win over Stanford and losses at Arizona and to Fresno State. AFA is 1-2, with no FBS wins and losses to Boise State and at Utah State, so they are already 0-2 in the MWC. Hawaii has lost 5 of the last 6 games played on the mainland, but that has to stop sometime. Warriors win.
Tennessee @ Mississippi State- The Volunteers hold a 30-16-1 advantage over these Bulldogs, winning 11 of the last 13 (since 1987), including 24-14 in the 1998 SEC Championship Game and 33-14 last year. The teams have only played 10 times in Starkville, with each team winning 5 times. They played in Memphis for 5 of the 1st 9 meetings (1907-1924), then mostly in Knoxville from 1925-1951, and from 1952- 1986, the teams played 7 times in Knoxville and 9 times in Memphis. Anyway, MSU is undefeated at 4-0, including a win over Arizona State, while the Vols are 3-1 with a win over Syracuse in their opener and a loss to UGA 2 weeks ago. This is a chance for the Bulldogs to announce their presence in the SEC race, but I think UT can beat these Bulldogs. Vols win, but MSU keeps it close.
Middle Tennessee @ Kennesaw State- The Blue Raiders won 14-5 last year in their only prior meeting, but are only 1-3 this season, losing to an FCS team, at Wisconsin, and vs Marshall, but they do own a win on the road at Nevada. The Owls are 2-2, winning their last 2 games (FCS team and Arkansas State, both at home) after losing on the road at Wake Forest (by 1) and at Indiana (lost by less than Illinois did- by only 47!). KSU gets the win to move above .500 in a season for the 1st time ever in the FBS ranks.
Liberty @ ODU- The Flames lead the series 4-1, winning the last 4, but the teams have 1 win each in Norfolk. LU is off to a slow start, as they are only 1-3 with no FBS wins, and a loss to James Madison of the SBC East last week. The Monarchs are 2-1, with a competitive loss to Indiana and a win over Va Tech. ODU is also coming out of their bye week, so they should be well rested. Monarchs win.
Rhode Island @ Western Michigan- The Broncos move to 2-3 with a win over the 4-0 Rams.
Arizona @ Iowa State- The Wildcats have a 4-1-1 lead in the series, but those 6 games all took place between 1948 and 1968. This will be only the 2nd time these teams meet in Ames, but the 2nd time in a row. Both teams are undefeated with UA at 3-0 and coming out of their off week. The Cyclones are 4-0, and were also off last week. Interestingly, both teams have beaten Kansas State, but only ISU's win counts in the standings, as the KSU-Arizona game was counted as a non-conference contest. This is the game where we find out if the Wildcats are for real. I think they keep it close, at least into the 2nd half, but the Cyclones ultimately prevail.
Virginia Tech @ NC State- The Hokies lead this series 28-20-3, winning 5 of the last 7 (since 2005), but the Wolfpack have won the last 2, 22-21 in 2022 and 35-28 in 2023. VT won their 1st game under interim HC Philip Montgomery last week, but that was over an FCS squad, as they still don't have an FBS win. NCSU is 3-1, losing at Duke last week, and they are 1-1 in the ACC, though they also have a "non-conference" win over Virginia. The Wolfpack make a clean sweep of the state with a win. Or at least the ACC portion of the state.
Jacksonville State @ Southern Miss- The Golden Eagles have a slim 2-1 lead in the series, winning in 1937 and 1946 in Hattiesburg, but the Gamecocks won 44-7 last year at JSU Stadium. USM is 2-2 with losses to Miss State and at La Tech last week, and a win over App State; JSU is also 2-2, losing at UCF and Ga Southern and defeating conference mate Liberty. Both teams have new coaches. The Golden Eagles win this bird fight.
WKU @ Missouri State- The Hilltoppers have won 8 of 10 games against the Bears, winning the last 8, but the most recent contest was in 2006. MSU is 2-2 in their 1st FBS season, with a win at Marshall and 2 P4 losses. WKU is 3-1/1-0, with their one loss at Toledo by 24 points. The Hilltoppers have lost their last 4 games away from Bowling Green, while Mo State has won 6 of their last 7 home games. Bears win in a mild upset.
Memphis @ FAU- These teams have met twice before, both times in bowl games. The Owls won the 2007 NewOrleans Bowl 44-27 and the Tigers won the 2020 Montgomery Bowl 25-10. FAU is 1-2 with no FBS wins, but they were off last week. Memphis is undefeated and coming off a big win over Arkansas, and the danger here is overlooking the Owls. Here's thinking that doesn't happen, or if it does, that the Tigers wake up in time to get the win.
Oregon @ Penn State- This could very well be the best game of the week, or if not, could have the biggest repercussions. Both teams are undefeated, but neither has played an FBS team with a winning record. The Nittany Lions lead the series 3-2, winning in the 1960 Liberty Bowl, 1963 in Portland, and in the 1995 Rose Bowl. The Ducks have wins in 1964 in State College and in 2024 in the Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis. PSU was off last week, but I believe in the Quack Attack. Oregon wins a defensive struggle.
Alabama @ Georgia- This one could also be the best game of the week. The Crimson Tide lead the series 44-26-4, but this is their 1st time playing in Athens since 2015. They've only played in Tuscaloosa twice since then, in 2020 and 2024, though they've met in other venues 6 times since 2012: 5 times in Atlanta (4 for SEC CGs, once for the National Championship Game, all won by Bama) and once in Indianapolis for the 2021 National Championship Game (won 33-18 by UGA). The teams first met in 1895, with the Dawgs winning 30-6, and 3 of the 4 ties happened between 1901 and 1908 (2 of the 0-0 variety, the other 6-6), with the other a 0-0 affair in 1954. The Tide have won the last 2 played in Athens, in 2015 and 2008, and Alabama has won as many as 7 in a row in the series (2008-2021, 4 in Atlanta, 2 in Athens, and 1 in Tuscaloosa) while UGA's longest streak is 5 consecutive wins, from 1910-1916, with 4 of those in Birmingham and 1 in Columbus, Ga. I'm pretty sure that was before Nick Saban came to Tuscaloosa, and even before Wallace Wade came to town. There have been a lot of great games played between these 2 teams, not the least of which was the 2017 National Championship Game won in OT by the Crimson Tide. Both teams were off last week, so I expect to see a few new wrinkles, but I sure hope it doesn't start like last year's game! Bulldogs win, extending their home winning streak to 34 games, but it won't be easy. It rarely is, as the Dawgs haven't won by more than 15 points since their 21-0 win in Athens in 1976.
UMass @ Missouri- The Minutemen were off last week, but it won't make a difference as the Tigers will win by at least as much as they did in their only other meeting, 45-7 in Foxboro last year.
Washington State @ Colorado State- The Cougars have a slight 2-1 lead, winning the last 2, but the Rams have a 48-45 win in the 2013 New Mexico Bowl. Wazzu is 2-2, losing their last 2 to UNT and rival Washington (59-24). CSU is 1-2, also losing to Washington (38-21) and to UTSA by 1, and they have no wins over FBS opposition. The Rams have won 6 of their last 7 home games while WSU has lost their last 4 games away from The Palouse. CSU wins in a mild upset.
San Jose State @ Stanford- The Cardinal have a massive 52-15-1 lead in this series, winning the last 9 in Stanford Stadium, but the Spartans won 34-31 last year. Both teams have had a miserable start to the season, with Stanford at 1-3 (win over Boston College) and SJSU at 1-2 (FCS win). The Cardinal have already lost to 1 MWC team (Hawaii), so they are perfectly capable of losing to another. But the Spartans lost to a MAC team by 2, got stomped by Texas, and then barely survived against FCS Idaho after a bye week. Both teams have struggled to score, but Stanford has played tougher competition. The Cardinal wins.
Appalachian State @ Boise State- The Broncos have a win in the only prior meeting, 17-14 in the 1994 Division I-AA Quarterfinals. Boise State has recovered nicely from losing their opener at USF by 27 points, and at 2-1 are back in the chase for the G5 CFP slot. The Mountaineers are also 2-1, but their loss is to fellow SBC member Southern Miss, though they were off last week. Broncos win on the "Smurf Turf".
Kentucky @ South Carolina- The Gamecocks lead the series 21-14-1, winning the last 3, including 31-6 last year, but the Wildcats have won 7 of the last 11. SC is reeling a bit, losing the last 2 weeks, each one an SEC game, to fall to 0-2 in the conference. UK is 2-1 with their only loss to Ole Miss by 7, and they had an off week last week. Both teams need a win to keep their season from spiraling out of control. The Gamecocks have won 2 of the last 3 in the series played in Columbia, and have won 4 of their last 5 overall played at home. SC wins, but the Wildcats won't make it easy.
Marshall @ Louisiana- The Ragin' Cajuns have wins in the 2021 New Orleans Bowl and in 2022 in Huntington, but the Thundering Herd won 31-3 last year in the SBC Championship Game in Lafayette. This year, Marshall is 2-2 with losses at Georgia and vs Mo State and wins against an FCS team and MTSU. UL is 1-3, winning their FCS game and losing to Rice, at Missouri, and at Eastern Michigan. This is a good chance for the Cajuns to get well and to exact revenge for last year's loss. UL wins.
La Tech @ UTEP- The Bulldogs have a huge 17-3-1 lead in this series, winning the last 3 and 11 of the last 12. However, 2 of UTEP's wins (and the tie) happened in El Paso, including their last win in 2021. The Miners are 1-3 with no FBS wins. LT looks like it finally has a team capable of making it back to a bowl and perhaps get their 1st winning record since they were 10-3 in 2019, as they are 3-1 on the young season with their only loss at LSU. Bulldogs win big.
BYU @ Colorado- The Buffaloes lead this series 8-4-1, but all 8 of their victories and the tie came between 1923 and 1947. The Cougars got one win in 1946, and their other 3 wins in 1981 in Boulder, in the 1988 Freedom Bowl in Anaheim, and in the 2024 Alamo Bowl. Despite the loss of their QB in late Spring, BYU is 3-0 with wins over Stanford and ECU. The Buffs are 2-2, with wins over FBS newcomer Delaware and Wyoming, and losses to GT and at Houston. This should be a good game. The Cougars win a shootout.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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