Paul's Picks 2025 Week 9
Welcome Back!
Last week, I was slightly better than the week before, but still below my 75% target, finishing 43-17 (71.7%), making me 418-113 overall with a winning percentage of 78.7% (down 0.9% from last week).
This week we are back down to 53 games, the fewest since Week 6, but the lineup is rather sparse, with few games you feel like you must see. I'm only 1-3 so far after the early games, which is pretty terrible, but better (slightly) than the 1-4 start to last week. CUSA games are destroying my percentage! Let's see if I can get back above 80% for the year, but I'm afraid that ship has sailed.
So... on with the picks!
Thursday, October 23
South Alabama @ Georgia State- The Panthers hold a 5-4 lead in this brief series, winning the last 3, but they haven't played each other since 2020. GSU is 4-1 in games played in Atlanta, but are 1-6/0-3 this year with no FBS wins. However, the Jaguars are also 1-6/0-3 with no FBS wins. The difference is that SA has 3 losses by 7 points or less while the Panthers have just one. Usually, the team that plays the best wins, but I think each team is hoping to be the one that plays less poorly. GSU wins at home.
Friday, October 24
North Texas @ Charlotte- The 49ers have won both matchups, winning in 2019 and 2020, but this year they are 1-6/0-4 with no FBS wins, and they are losing games by more than 17 ppg. The Mean Green is 6-1/2-1, losing only to USF, and they've scored at least 33 points in every game, more than Charlotte has scored in any game this season against FBS competition. UNT wins big.
California @ Virginia Tech- The Golden Bears managed a 52-49 win in the 2003 Insight Bowl in their only previous contest. The Hokies are 2-5/1-2, and are 0-3 at home against FBS teams, but they were off last week. Cal is 5-2/2-1 and 2-1 on the road, and though they weren't off last week, they are not playing on a short week as they played last Friday as well. Bears squeeze VT.
Boise State @ Nevada- The Broncos hold a commanding 32-14 lead in the series, winning the last 2, and 18 of the last 20 (since 1999), including the last 4 (and 8 of the last 9) played in Reno. The Wolf Pack are 1-6/0-3 with no FBS wins, but 3 losses were by 3 points or less (a combined 6 points!). BSU is 5-2/3-0 with losses on the road at USF and Notre Dame. Broncos trample Nevada.
Saturday, October 25
UCLA @ Indiana - This is an intriguing matchup, as the Hoosiers have been dominant, winning by an average of 32.29 ppg, but the Bruins have won 3 in a row to run their record to 3-4/3-1, and a win here would establish them as a real threat in the Big Ten after their horrific start to their season. IU owns the only victory in this "series", winning 42-13 last year in Pasadena, and they've won their last 13 home games. UCLA is 1-2 on the road this season, and 3-3 in their last 6 away from Rose Bowl Stadium, but a win in Memorial Stadium would be even bigger than their win over Penn State just a few short weeks ago. Hoosiers end UCLA's streak and win, but it might be close.
Syracuse @ Georgia Tech- The Yellow Jackets are 7-0/4-0, and their challenge now is handling success, and to avoid losing to lesser teams, like this one. The Orange is 3-4/1-3 and out of the ACC race, but they defeated GT 31-28 last year. The Jackets have a 4-2 lead in the series that includes a win in the 2004 Champs Sports Bowl. GT wins.
Ole Miss @ Oklahoma- This is an elimination game in the SEC as both teams are 6-1 overall, with the Rebels 3-1 in the conference and the Sooners 2-1. These teams have met twice before, with Ole Miss winning the 1999 Independence Bowl and 26-14 last year in Oxford. The Rebels have an excellent offense and an inconsistent defense, while OU has an excellent defense and an inconsistent offense. Should be fun! Sooners win by playing better offense against the Rebels' defense than Miss's offense does against their defense.
Virginia @ North Carolina- The Tar Heels hold a 66-59-4 edge over the Cavaliers, winning 3 of the last 4, including 41-14 last year, but the Wahoos have won 5 of the last 8 in the series. UNC is 2-4/0-2, and until their 3-point loss at Cal last week, all of their losses had been by at least 25 points each. UVA ia 6-1/3-0 with their one loss a non-conference contest with ACC member NC State. Hoos win, but the Tar Heels keep it close.
USF @ Memphis- These just may be the 2 best teams in the American Conference, but each one has a loss at 6-1. The difference is that the Bulls lost their game at Miami in week 3 while the Tigers lost to conference foe UAB last week. Memphis holds a 9-4 lead in the series, winning each of the last 4, but USF has a win in the 2008 St. Petersburg Bowl. If the Tigers lose this, their only remaining role will be as spoiler, as they play the other 2 conference leaders in the next few weeks. Memphis wins in an upset.
Northwestern @ Nebraska- The Cornhuskers lead this series 10-7, winning the last contest in 2023 by a 17-9 score, and the last 3 in Lincoln. The Wildcats are 5-2/3-1 and Nebraska is 5-2/2-2, but NW has played tougher competition. Wildcats win.
Rutgers @ Purdue- The Scarlet Knights have won both meetings, in 2017 and 2020, by a combined 9 points. Both teams are 0-4 in the Big Ten, with Rutgers 3-4 overall and Purdue 2-5, and both are hoping to get to 6 wins and bowl eligibility, so this is in essence an elimination game. Flip a coin. Purdue wins at home.
SMU @ Wake Forest- The Mustangs are 3-0 against the Demon Deacons, winning in 1949, 1972, and 1975, with the latter in Winston-Salem. SMU is 5-2/3-0 and WF is 4-2/1-2. Ponies win.
Kansas State @ Kansas- The Jayhawks lead this series 64-53-5, but the Wildcats have won the last 16, and the last 8 played in Lawrence. KU is 4-3/2-2, while KSU is 3-4/2-2, so both are having disappointing seasons below expectations. However, the Cats have won 2 of their last 3, and the Birdies have won 2 of their last 4, and are 3-1 at home this season. KU wins to break their long losing streak in the series.
Appalachian State @ ODU- A few weeks ago, the Monarchs were 4-1 and riding high, looking like one of the top teams in the SBC, but they've been routed each of their last 2 games, losing by a combined 60 points at Marshall and JMU. However, ODU is 3-0 at home this season. App State is 4-3/1-2, winning 2 of their last 3, but that loss was last week to CCU. The Mountaineers lead the series 4-1, but the Monarchs won the last time this was played in Norfolk. ASU wins.
Bowling Green @ Kent State- The Falcons have a huge 62-24-6 lead in this series, winning the last 2, but the Golden Flashes have won 5 of the last 7. Both teams are 1-2 in the MAC, with KSU 1-0 at home and BGSU 0-1 on the road. Despite all that, the Falcons win.
Ohio @ Eastern Michigan- The Bobcats have almost doubled up the Eagles, leading the series 21-12-1 and winning each of the last 3 (since 2017) and 12 of the last 14 (since 1996). Ohio is 4-3/2-1 while EMU is 2-6/1-3. Bobcats win.
Auburn @ Arkansas- The Tigers lead the series 20-13-1, and have won 7 of the last 9, but the Razorbacks have won 2 of the last 3, including 24-14 last year. However, the Hogs haven't won in Fayetteville since 2015, losing 4 straight at home. Arkansas is 0-2 vs P4 teams at home this season, as the War Eagles are 2-1 on the road against the same level of competition. The Piggies are 0-2 under interim HC Bobby Petrino, losing each game by 3 points. All 4 of the Plainsmen's losses have come by 10 points or less, with 3 by 7 or less. AU wins a close one.
Akron @ Buffalo- The Bulls hold a narrow 13-11 lead in the series, but they've won the last 7, including 41-30 last year, and they've won the last 8 over the Zips in games played in UB Stadium (since 2007). Buffalo wins again.
UConn @ Rice- The Huskies have defeated the Owls each of the last 2 years in this budding cross-country rivalry, as those are the only 2 prior meetings. Rice had a promising 3-1 start to the season, but they lost 3 in a row before heading into their bye week last week. UConn is 5-2, with both losses in OT (one to Syracuse) and a win over Boston College last week. Huskies win.
Utah State @ New Mexico- The Aggies lead this series 17-14, winning 7 of the last 8, but the Lobos won 50-45 last year. Both teams are 4-3 overall, but UNM is only 1-2 in the MWC while USU is 2-1. Both teams have played SJSU, with the Aggies coming out on top 30-25 last week and the Lobos coming up short, 35-28. This game could go either way, so I'm going with the home team: UNM wins.
Alabama @ South Carolina- The Crimson Tide have a 12-4 lead in the series, winning the last 2 (since 2019), and they would have 14-3 lead except their win in 2005 was vacated, and their win in 1993 was forfeited to the Gamecocks. Three of SC's wins have come in Columbia (including the forfeit, and the vacated one was played there as well), but they have struggled this year, losing 4 of their last 5. The only danger for Alabama is if they relax and overlook the Gamecocks and look ahead to LSU after the upcoming off week. The Tide rolls.
Missouri @ Vanderbilt- The Tigers lead this series 11-4-1, winning the last 5, including 30-27 last year. Both teams are 6-1/2-1, and both losses were to Alabama- Mizzou by a 27-24 score at home and Vandy by 30-14 in Tuscaloosa. With the game in Nashville, I'm picking the Commodores to continue their magical season in what amounts to an elimination game.
BYU @ Iowa State- The Cyclones have won all 5 iterations in this series, with 4 of those between 1968 and 1974, and the last a 45-13 victory in 2023. The Cougars are 7-0/4-0, winning by an average of just under 12 ppg in their FBS games, but by only 6.5 ppg in Big 12 contests. ISU is 5-2/2-2 and must win out to have any chance at a Big 12 CG or CFP berth, as they've lost 2 consecutive games, but are 3-0 at home and have a 5-game home winning streak, winning 8 of their last 9 at home. BYU pulls the upset, ending any hopes the Cyclones have of a conference championship.
Illinois @ Washington- The Huskies hold a 7-4 lead in the series, winning the last 4, but the last meeting was in 2014, and the Fighting Illini hold the most important victory: 17-7 in the 1964 Rose Bowl. Both teams are 5-2/2-2, with both losing to Ohio State at home. This is yet another coin flip type game. This time I think I'll pick the visitor. Illinois wins a close one.
Minnesota @ Iowa- The Golden Gophers have a 63-53-2 lead in this series, but the Hawkeyes have won 9 of the last 10. However, Minnesota's last win was in 2023, the last time this game was played in Iowa City. Both teams are 5-2/3-1, with Iowa losing to Indiana at home and the Gophers dropping a 42-3 decision at Ohio State. This is yet another elimination game, with the loser probably out of the Big Ten race. Iowa wins at home and retains the Floyd of Rosedale Trophy.
Toledo @ Washington State- The Cougars will defeat the Rockets on the Palouse in this 1st time meeting.
NC State @ Pittsburgh- Each team has 5 wins apiece in this series with 1 tie (in 1986), with the Wolfpack winning the last 3 (from 2009-2020). They've also split their contests in the Tangerine Bowl with NCSU winning in 1978 and the Panthers grabbing a victory in 2001. The Wolfpack were off last week, but other than a win over UVA in game 2, they haven't really done much, losing their last 3 FBS games. Pitt is 5-2/3-1 and fighting for their postseason lives as they've won their last 3 contests. Panthers win big.
San Diego State @ Fresno State- The Aztecs have a slim 31-27-4 lead in this series, winning 33-18 in the last meeting in 2023, but the Bulldogs have won 4 of the last 6, and the last 2 played in Fresno. SDSU is 6-1/2-0, losing only at Washington State, and they have a shutout victory over Cal, but their MWC wins are only over Colorado State and Nevada. FS is 5-2/2-1, losing at Kansas and at Colorado State (by 28), and their wins are over Nevada and Hawaii. Aztecs win.
ULM @ Southern Miss- The Golden Eagles have a 6-3 lead in the series, and are 4-2 in Hattiesburg, but the Warhawks won 38-21 last year in Monroe. USM is 5-2/3-0, with wins over App St, Ga St, and Louisiana. ULM is 3-4/1-2, with a win over Arkansas State, and losses to CCU and Troy. Eagles soar to the win.
FAU @ Navy- The Midshipmen have won both previous matchups, in 2013 and 2017. Navy is 6-0/4-0, topping UAB (who just beat Memphis), Tulsa, Rice, and Temple, so they haven't exactly faced a murderer's row. The Owls are 3-4/2-2, besting Rice and UAB, and falling to Memphis and USF. FAU has played tougher competition, but was blown out in each. Navy wins at home.
Temple @ Tulsa- The Golden Hurricane hold a 5-4 edge in the series, winning 3 of the last 4, and 3 of 4 played at home, but the Owls won 20-10 last year, and are seemingly having a decent season, as they've already won more games this season than all of last year. Temple wins.
Ball State @ Northern Illinois- This series is tied 25-25-2, with the Cardinals winning the last 3, 5 of the last 6, and 2 of the last 3 played in DeKalb. The Huskies are having a miserable season at 1-6/0-3, with their only win over an FCS squad by a measly 2 points and MAC losses to Miami, EMU, and Ohio. Ball State has already matched last year's 3 wins, and at 2-1 in the MAC, have wins over Ohio and Akron and a loss to WMU. Cardinals prevail.
UMass @ Central Michigan- The Chippewas have back-to-back wins in 2012 and 2013 in the only prior meetings. The Minutemen are perhaps the worst team in the FBS, but finally played a close contest, losing 28-21 to Buffalo, which is 3-0 in the MAC. CMU is 4-3/2-1 with a loss to Akron and wins over EMU and BGSU. Chips win.
Western Michigan @ Miami, Oh- The Redhawks hold a substantial 38-24-1 lead in this series, winning 34-21 in their last matchup in 2023, but the Broncos have won 8 of the last 9 (since 2006), and 14 of the last 18 (since 1988), and the last 4 played in Oxford. Miami and WMU are tied at the top of the MAC (with Buffalo) at 3-0, so the winner will hold the tiebreaker advantage over the other should they end the season in a 2-way tie. WMU's big win is by 1 over Toledo (2-2 in the MAC), while the Redhawks hold wins over teams with a combined record of 1-9 in the conference. Broncos win.
Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech- This series is tied at 24-24-3, with the Red Raiders winning 56-48 last year, but the Cowboys have won 3 of the last 4. OSU is having a horrific season with their only win over an FCS team in their opener. TTU is having a fantastic season, but their QB situation is still up in the air with the injury to Behren Morton. Still, the Red Raiders should win easily.
Baylor @ Cincinnati- The Bears own a 32-29 win in 2023 as this will be only their 2nd meeting ever. The Bearcats are 6-1/4-0 and one of the surprise teams in the Big 12, with wins over Kansas and Iowa State. Baylor is 4-3/2-2, with a win over Kansas State and losses to Arizona State and TCU. Both teams have a win over Oklahoma State. Cincy needs to win to keep pace with the top of the conference. Bearcats eke out a victory.
Texas @ Mississippi State- The Longhorns lead the series, but only by 3-2, with wins in 1921, the 1999 Cotton Bowl, and 35-13 last year. MSU's 2 wins came in 1991 and '92, so they are 1-0 in Starkville. It's obvious to anyone who has watched them play that the Bulldogs are vastly improved; it just hasn't shown up often in the win column. 2 of their 3 SEC losses were by 7 points or less, so they've been close to breaking their 12-game SEC losing streak (now 15) coming into this season. The Horns have looked good at times, but have mostly been mediocre. The question is which UT team will show up? They seem to play well against good competition, but poorly against lesser teams, and eventually that will catch up to them. This is the week. MSU pulls the upset!
TCU @ West Virginia- The Mountaineers hold an 8-5 lead in the series, winning the first meeting in the 1984 Bluebonnet Bowl, and winning 24-21 in the last meeting in 2023, but the Horned Frogs won the last time they played in Morgantown, and 3 of their 5 wins are there. TCU is 5-2/2-2 and still nominally in the Big 12 title chase. WVU is 2-5/0-4 and on a 4-game losing streak. Make it 5. Frogs win.
Wisconsin @ Oregon- Poor Badgers. After winning their 1st 2 games, they've lost 5 in a row, beginning with a game at Alabama (6-1), and their last 3 losses were to Michigan (5-2), Iowa, (5-2) and Ohio State (7-0), the last 2 by shutout. And now they get Oregon (6-1) on the road, followed by Washington (5-2), Indiana (7-0), Illinois (5-2), and Minnesota (5-2). Do you see any win possibilities there? UW won the 1st 3 contests with the Ducks, in 1977, 1978, and 2000, but UO has won the last 4, in the 2012 and 2020 Rose Bowls, and in 2001 and 16-13 last year in Madison. Ducks win big.
Stanford @ Miami, Fl- The Hurricanes will bounce back from their 1st loss to defeat the Cardinal in Hard Rock Stadium in this 1st ever matchup on the gridiron.
Georgia Southern @ Arkansas State- This series is tied 3-3 with the Red Wolves 2-0 in Jonesboro, but the Eagles own a 48-21 win in the 1986 Division I-AA Championship Game in Tacoma, WA. Both teams are 3-4 overall, but ASU is 2-1 in the SBC, with wins over South Alabama and Texas State, and a loss to ULM, while GS is 1-2, with a win over rival Ga State last week, and losses to JMU and USM. Eagles win.
Louisiana @ Troy- This series is tied 11-11 (thanks to 3 vacated UL wins from 2011-13), with the Ragin' Cajuns winning 51-30 last year, but the Trojans have won 2 of the last 3. The Cajuns are 2-5/1-2, so there isn't much raging going on in Louisiana (except maybe by the fans...). Troy is 5-2/3-0, and appears to be a clear favorite, but I expect a close game. Trojans win.
Texas A&M @ LSU- The Tigers lead this series 32-24-3 winning the last 6 played in Tiger Stadium (though 2 of those, in 2013 and 2015, have been vacated). The Aggies are the last remaining undefeated team in the SEC at 7-0/4-0, but they've defeated teams with a combined 2-12 conference record. The Bayou Bengals are 5-2/2-2 and fighting for their CFP lives, and are 4-0 at home this season, and have won 15 of their last 16 at home. LSU in an upset!
Boston College @ Louisville- The Cardinals have a 10-7 lead, winning the last 2, including 31-27 last season. The Eagles just might be the worst P4 team in FBS, though Oklahoma State may beg to differ. UL wins easily.
Michigan @ Michigan State- The only thing that might keep this close is that it's a rivalry game, but the Wolverines have a dominating 74-38-5 lead in the series, winning the last 3, and 3 of the last 4 played in East Lansing. The Spartans are 0-4 in the Big Ten, and all 4 losses have been by double digits. UM wins.
Colorado State @ Wyoming- The Rams will be playing their 1st game under interim HC Tyson Summers. The Rams lead this series 60-51-5, winning 24-10 last year, but the Cowboys have won 3 of the last 4, and 7 of the last 9, as well as the last 4 played in Laramie. Both teams are 1-2 in the MWC, with CSU defeating Fresno State and dropping decisions to SDSU and Hawaii. Wyoming has a win over SJSU and losses to UNLV and Air Force. Cowboys win at home.
Tennessee @ Kentucky- These teams have been playing since 1893, and though the Wildcats won that 1st contest by a score of 56-0, they haven't won too often since, as the Volunteers hold an overwhelming 84-26-9 lead, winning the last 4. The Vols haven't lost in Lexington since 2014, and have only lost 7 times to the Wildcats since 1965 (they've played every season since 1906, sans 1917-18 for WWI). UT wins again.
Houston @ Arizona State- This is another one of those elimination games, as both teams come into this game with a 3-1 Big 12 record. The Sun Devils lead this series 5-4, but all the games have been played between 1952 and 1990, so it's been a bit since they've seen each other on the field. The Cougars have wins over Colorado, OSU, and Arizona, with their loss to Texas tech. ASU has wins against Baylor, TCU, and Texas Tech (last week), with their loss at Utah. Sun Devils win at home.
Colorado @ Utah- The Utes have a 35-33-3 lead in this series, winning 7 of the last 8, and 13 of the last 16 to overtake CU, but the Buffaloes won 49-24 last year. However, the Buffs haven't won in Salt Lake City since 2011, which was the 1st time they played this century. All the other games were between 1903 and 1962. Utah is 5-2/2-2 and coming off a loss to rival BYU, so they may be a little emotionally spent. The Buffs are only 3-4/1-3, but their last contest was over Iowa State, and they were off last week, so they've had an extra week to prepare for this game. The Utes will win, but CU will give them a tough game.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
Comments
Post a Comment