TWIF Notes 10/27/25
Welcome Back!
Wow! We had yet another exciting weekend, and my predicting percentage took a huge hit (more on that in my Paul's Picks on Thursday). And we had yet another coach let go.
This year, I decided to keep up with which teams I watch on tv, with a goal of seeing every team. Now, there is no way I can watch every team play a full game, so my criteria is seeing every team play at least one offensive and one defensive drive or series. So far, I have seen 126 of the 136 FBS teams, including every P4 team. I am only missing 2 teams from the Mountain West, 5 from the MAC, and 3 from CUSA. If that seems like I am prioritizing the G5 teams less, that is only partially true. My TV package does not include ESPN+ or CBS Sports Network, so I have to wait for teams to appear on Fox, CBS, NBC, ESPN, SEC, BTN, or ACC networks. I also have the MWC app (it's free!), which allows me to watch contests from the Mountain West Conference that don't appear on other networks. For this reason, I'm looking forward to the midweek games in the MAC, CUSA, and SBC this month and next so I can catch those that don't normally make the "big" networks. Oh, and I also can't stay up to watch the late night games; I'm way too old for that!
Anyway, let's get into this week's winners and losers. Just as a heads up, I've changed the way I'm presenting this week, moving more toward what I envisioned. I hope you like this new format!
Winners
KSU- Yes, I realize that there are 3 teams with those initials, but they all won. Kennesaw State pummeled FIU 45-26 to move to 5-2/3-0, Kansas State demolished Kansas 42-17 to win their 2nd in a row and get back to .500 at 4-4/3-2, and Kent State eased by Bowling Green 24-21to improve to 3-5/2-2 and keep alive their hopes for a bowl bid.
Fans of OT games- We had 7 games go to OT, 2 to double OT, and they were as dramatic as you would expect, as 3 were decided by just 1 point. I don't know what the record is for most OT games in one weekend (I'm not willing to go down that particular rabbit hole), but this has to at least be close.
Virginia- The Cardiac Cavaliers have won 6 in a row and are 4-0 in the ACC, but their last 4 wins were all by 8 points or less, and 3 were in OT (1 in 2 OTs). How long can they keep living on the edge before they fall off? And how did this team lose to NC State?
Georgia Tech- The Yellow Jackets are 8-0 for the 1st time since they started the season 9-0 in 1966. They eventually finished 9-2, losing to Georgia and Florida in the Orange Bowl in their last 2 games. That team was led by QB Kim King and RB Lenny Snow in Bobby Dodd's last year on The Flats, and while a number of coaches have had decent or even outstanding seasons, sustained success has been difficult to obtain since Coach Dodd retired, as there have only been 10 seasons with as many as 9 wins, and only once were they back-to-back (9-4 in 2008 and 11-3 in 2009 under HC Paul Johnson). I picked the Jackets to make the CFP in my previews (back in August), and I am sticking by that prediction.
BYU and Cincinnati- The Cougars and Bearcats are the last remaining undefeated teams in the Big 12, but they'll play each other on Nov 15 in Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati. BYU has an off week this week, but has tough games at Texas Tech and vs TCU at home to contend with. UC has games at Utah and TCU as well, so the path for either certainly isn't guaranteed.
Temple- The Owls have won 3 of their last 4 to get to 5-3/3-1, and one more win would make them bowl eligible for the 1st time since the 2019 season.
San Diego State- The Aztecs are 6-1/3-0 and have a realistic chance of making the MWC CG, but they'll need to avoid upsets and get past Boise State on Nov 15.
The Sun Belt West- The West Division was 2-0 against the East this past weekend, with the 2 Georgia teams- State and Southern- losing to South Alabama and Arkansas State respectively. In addition, Southern Miss and Troy look headed for a winner-take-all contest on the final weekend of the season for the privilege of taking on James Madison (probably) in the SBC CG. Finally, South Alabama finally got their 1st FBS win with their victory over the Panthers.
Northern Illinois- The Huskies were able to secure their 1st FBS win by dispatching Ball State 21-7. The win also keeps alive their faint hopes of making a 3rd straight bowl game.
Delaware and Missouri State- The 2 newest FBS members won on the same day for the 2nd time this year (the other was on Sep 20), as both are 4-3 overall, with the Bears 2-1 in CUSA and the Fightin' Blue Hens at 2-2.
Losers
Upset-minded SEC teams- The SEC had a number of games go down to the wire, but none of the upsets came through. First, Texas overcame a 17-point deficit to force OT and down Mississippi State 45-38. Then Alabama trailed South Carolina 22-14 before scoring 15 unanswered to win 29-22. Finally, Oklahoma had a brief lead late before succumbing 34-26 to Ole Miss. You can even throw in LSU, who led at the half before collapsing in the 2nd half to lose 49-25 to Texas A&M, Arkansas who led at home before dropping a 33-24 decision to Auburn, and Missouri who came within a few inches of tying the game at Vandy, but lost 17-10.
My prediction percentage- I had my worst week in years (more on that Thursday) as I once again was way off the mark on the early games. I've been especially poor at picking MAC, CUSA, and SBC games.
Big Ten fans- Only 3 of 7 games were decided by less than 10 points, as teams won by 14, 11, 50, 7, 38, 17, and 3 points. Not much to keep you tuned in.
Baylor, Iowa State, and Arizona State- These 3 teams started the season as Big 12 favorites according to most pundits, and after 6 games, all 3 were 4-2 or better, but now each has 3 losses and are likely out of conference and CFP discussion. Baylor is 4-4/2-3 after a 2nd straight loss (41-20 at Cincinnati), ISU is 5-3/2-3, losing their last 3 in a row with the latest at home to BYU, and defending Big 12 Champion ASU is 5-3/3-2 after a loss to Houston gives them 2 losses in their last 3 games.
UConn- The Huskies have 3 losses after dropping a 37-34 decision at Rice, and all 3 have come in OT, with this one in double OT. It appears that the way to beat UConn is to get them into OT. The Huskies should be favored in 3 of their last 4 games, so they have a decent chance to match last year's 8 regular season wins, and with a bowl victory, have a 2nd consecutive 9-win season.
The American Conference- This is turning into one of the more interesting races. Everyone is still assuming the winner of the American will be the G6 CFP representative, but if no team can make it through the season with only 1 loss, then that may not happen. Memphis just handed USF their 2nd loss, and with one loss themselves, they will need to beat both Tulane and Navy while avoiding being upset on the road at Rice and ECU. North Texas may have the best chance to finish the season at 11-1, as they have the easiest remaining schedule of those with only 1 loss or less, but they'll need to get past Navy at home this weekend (which would hand the Midshipmen their 1st loss).
Buffalo- The Bulls had a chance to stay in a tie for 1st in the MAC, but instead lost by 8 to 3-6/2-3 Akron. Buffalo is still in the chase, but with games against CMU, Miami, and Ohio, their chances of staying there has almost disappeared as they now have no margin for error.
Conference Races
Here is where the teams stand and what they need to do to make their conference championship game. Please note that since we still have a month to play, I am not presenting every scenario- just the most likely path, and since every conference has its own tie breakers (TB), I am also not considering those yet. I'll refine these each week until the end of the season. Please note that "bottom feeders" doesn't mean eliminated; it just means the odds are long.
SEC
Big Ten
ACC
Big 12
American
Mountain West
Sun Belt East
Sun Belt West
MAC
CUSA
That's it for this week! Come back tomorrow for my updated Power Rankings!
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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