Odds and Ends 11/19/25

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Welcome Back!


As expected, my Power Rankings did pretty well in predicting the committee rankings! My top 7 were all in the top 7 and in the 12-team bracket, I have 10 of the 12 (I have North Texas and Utah instead of Tulane and Oklahoma). Of the Committee's top 25, I have all of the top 19 in my top 25, in addition to Missouri, who the committee has at #22 and I have at 18. Where we differ is in the 20s, specifically 20, 21, 23, 24, and 25. Respectively, the committee has Tennessee (#29 in my rankings), Illinois (28 in mine), Houston (#36), Tulane (#37), and Arizona State (#33). Teams in my Top 25 that the committee left out were USF, North Texas, James Madison, Arizona, and Cincinnati.

Not too shabby!


Wednesday, November 19

Miami, Oh @ Buffalo- The Redhawks own a 17-9 lead in the series, but the home team has won each of the last 7 (since 2017). The Bulls are 5-5/4-2 and in a 5-way tie for 2nd place in the MAC that includes Miami. But Buffalo has lost 2 of their last 3, and are only 2-3 at home. The Redhawks are also 5-5/4-2, as they've lost 2 in a row and are 2-2 on the road. Both teams are just 1 win away from bowl eligibility- for the Bulls it would mean their 2nd in a row; for Miami, it would mean their 6th in a row (not counting their 2-1 season in 2020). Redhawks swoop in for the win.

Central Michigan @ Kent State- The Chippewas have a commanding 25-11 lead over the Golden Flashes, winning the last 2, but they haven't played since 2021. CMU is 6-4/4-2 and winners of 3 of their last 4, but they are 2-4 on the road (1-2 in the MAC). KSU is 4-6/3-3, a huge improvement over last year's 0-12 campaign, and need to win their last 2 games to qualify for a bowl. They've won 2 of their last 3 overall, and are 3-1 at home. I'm gonna go with the upset. KSU Flashes past the Chips.


Interconference results


Now that we are deep into conference play, there are only a few non-conference games each week. I will revisit this at the end of the season.


Intraconference results

The Sun Belt East still leads the West 7-5, and have clinched at least a .500 record, as there are only 2 more games left.


Undefeated/Winless teams

The following teams are undefeated with a 10-0 record (unless otherwise indicated):

Indiana (11-0)
Ohio State 
Texas A&M 

We still have 3 out of 136 teams (2.2%) that remain undefeated. 

Here is how many from each conference are still undefeated:

Big Ten    2 out of 18/.111
SEC     1-16/.063
Pac 12    0-2/.000
Independents 0-2/.000
CUSA    0-10/.000
MWC    0-12/.000
MAC    0-13/.000
SBC    0-14/.000
American    0-14/.000
Big 12    0-16/.000
ACC    0-17/.000


The following team has yet to win a game:

UMass 0-10

Only 1 team remain winless (0.7%).

This is how many from each conference are still winless:

MAC    1 out of 13 teams
Pac 12    0-2
Ind     0-2
CUSA    0-10
MWC    0-12
SBC    0-14
American    0-14
SEC    0-16
Big 12    0-16
ACC     0-17
Big Ten     0-18


The following teams have a win, but no FBS wins:

Boston College
Charlotte
Georgia State
Oklahoma State

4 teams (2.9%) do not have an FBS win, including 2 P4 teams.

This is how many teams from each conference fall into this category:

SBC-1
American-1
Big 12-1
ACC-1
MWC-0
Pac 12-0
MAC-0
CUSA-0
SEC-0
Big Ten-0
Ind- 0


Bowl eligible/eliminated

The following teams have reached 6 wins, and thus are bowl eligible. There are 35 bowl games, so 70 teams will be needed. If you add in the 12 teams for the CFP (using some of the bowls not previously counted), then 82 teams are needed. We added only 4 teams this week, which means 63 teams are now eligible, so we need 19 more. 

Alabama
Arizona
Arizona State
Boise State
BYU 
California
Central Michigan
Cincinnati
Coastal Carolina
East Carolina
Fresno State
Georgia
Georgia Tech 
Hawaii
Houston
Illinois
Indiana 
Iowa
Iowa State
Jacksonville State
James Madison
Kennesaw State
Louisville
LSU
Memphis 
Miami, Fl
Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri
Missouri State (if not enough teams- see next section)
Navy 
Nebraska
New Mexico
North Texas
Notre Dame
ODU
Ohio
Ohio State 
Oklahoma
Ole Miss 
Oregon
Pittsburgh
San Diego State
SMU
Southern Miss
Tennessee
TCU
Texas
Texas A&M 
Texas Tech
Toledo
Troy
Tulane
UConn
UNLV 
USC
USF
Utah
Vanderbilt
Virginia
Wake Forest
Washington
Western Michigan
WKU

As teams reach 7 losses, they become ineligible for a bowl, unless there are an insufficient amount of teams to fill all the bowl slots. In that case, teams that are 5-7 may be invited in the order of their Academic Progress Rate scores. Akron is ineligible for a bowl regardless of their record due to academics. Delaware and Missouri State may only go to a bowl if there are not enough eligible teams (they would be picked 1st if they reach 6 wins), so I will be listing all 3 of those teams here for now. We currently have 34 teams ineligible.

Akron
Arkansas
Boston College
Bowling Green
Charlotte
Colorado
Colorado State
Delaware
Eastern Michigan
Florida
Georgia State
Michigan State
Middle Tennessee
Missouri State
Nevada
New Mexico State
Northern Illinois
Oklahoma State
Oregon State
Purdue
Sam Houston
San Jose State
South Alabama
South Carolina
Stanford
Syracuse
Tulsa
UAB
UCLA
ULM
UMass
UTEP
Virginia Tech
West Virginia

Here are the remaining teams and their chances to reach a bowl game.


Team: Northwestern
Record: 5-5
Remaining Schedule: Minnesota, Illinois
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair

Team: Temple
Record: 5-5
Remaining Schedule: Tulane, at NT
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Poor

Team: Miami, Oh
Record: 5-5
Remaining Schedule: at Buff, Ball St
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Very Good

Team: Mississippi State
Record: 5-6
Remaining Schedule: Ole Miss
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Poor

Team: NC State
Record: 5-5
Remaining Schedule: FSU, UNC
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Very Good

Team: Duke
Record: 5-5
Remaining Schedule: at UNC, WF
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Good

Team: Baylor
Record: 5-5
Remaining Schedule: at Arizona, Houston
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair

Team: Kansas
Record: 5-5
Remaining Schedule: at ISU, Utah
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair

Team: Arkansas State
Record: 5-5
Remaining Schedule: Lou, at App St
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair

Team: Buffalo
Record: 5-5
Remaining Schedule:  Mia, Ohio
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair

Team: La Tech
Record: 5-5
Remaining Schedule: Liberty, at Mo St
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Good

Team: Rutgers
Record: 5-5
Remaining Schedule: at Ohio St, Penn St
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Good

Team: Rice
Record: 5-5
Remaining Schedule: NT, at USF
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Poor

Team: Utah State
Record: 5-5
Remaining Schedule: at Fresno St, Boise St
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Poor

Team: Kansas State
Record: 5-5
Remaining Schedule: at Utah, Colo
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Very Good

Team: Marshall
Record: 5-5
Remaining Schedule: at App St, Ga Sou
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Good

Team: FSU
Record: 5-5
Remaining Schedule: at NC St, at Fla
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Very Good

Team: UTSA
Record: 5-5
Remaining Schedule: ECU, Army
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair

Team: Clemson
Record: 5-5
Remaining Schedule: Furman, at SC
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Excellent

Team: Washington State
Record: 5-5
Remaining Schedule: at JMU, Oregon St
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Very Good

Team: Georgia Southern
Record: 5-5
Remaining Schedule: ODU, at Marsh
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair

Team: FIU
Record: 5-5
Remaining Schedule: Jax St, at SHS
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Very Good

Team: Kentucky
Record: 5-5
Remaining Schedule: at Vandy, at Louisville
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair

Team: Army
Record: 5-4
Remaining Schedule: Tulsa, at UTSA, Navy (Phila)
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Excellent

Team: Auburn
Record: 4-6
Remaining Schedule: Mercer, Ala
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Very Poor

Team: Maryland
Record: 4-6
Remaining Schedule: Michigan, at Mich St
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Poor

Team: UCF
Record: 4-6
Remaining Schedule: Okla St, at BYU
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Very Poor

Team: Wyoming
Record: 4-6
Remaining Schedule: Nev, at Haw
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Poor

Team: Appalachian State
Record: 4-6
Remaining Schedule: Marsh, Ark St
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair

Team: Liberty
Record: 4-6
Remaining Schedule: at La Tech, Kenn St
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Poor

Team: FAU
Record: 4-6
Remaining Schedule: UConn, ECU
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair

Team: North Carolina
Record: 4-6
Remaining Schedule: Duke, at NC St
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Poor

Team: Louisiana
Record: 4-6
Remaining Schedule: at Ark St, ULM
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair

Team: Penn State
Record: 4-6
Remaining Schedule: Neb, at Rutgers
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair

Team: Texas State
Record: 4-6
Remaining Schedule: ULM, S Ala
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair

Team: Ball State
Record: 4-6
Remaining Schedule: at Toledo, at Mia
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Very Poor

Team: Kent State
Record: 4-6
Remaining Schedule: CMU, at NIU
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair



Paul's Playoff Picks

Most of my picks are still in play, but more and more teams are being eliminated each week.

As a refresher, here is the setup for the CFP:

5 slots are reserved for the 5 highest ranked conference champions; 7 slots are at-large (any team)
The top 4 seeds get a bye for the 1st round. This year, there are no allowances made for conference champions beyond being accepted into the field. The next 4 seeds get a home game for the 1st round, and the 9-12 seeds travel to play 4-8 (4 vs 12, 5 vs 11, etc.). Teams are not reseeded after the 1st round. After the 1st round, it plays out like any tournament- quarterfinals, semifinals, then finals, all at neutral sites (which I hope will change in future years).

Here is who I think makes it into this year's 12-team CFP, presented in no particular order:

Georgia- still looking good at 9-1, but still have GT ahead
Ohio State- still undefeated
Clemson- ELIMINATED
Kansas State- ELIMINATED
Notre Dame- 8-2 with no real challenges remaining
Boise State- ELIMINATED
Texas- now with 3 losses
Alabama- just suffered 2nd loss
Oregon- in excellent shape at 9-1
Penn State- ELIMINATED
Georgia Tech- big games against Pitt and UGA, both at home
LSU- ELIMINATED

NOTE: Eliminated only means from an at-large spot. Some of these teams could still win their respective conferences. 


Here is the list of the next most likely teams to get in:


Oklahoma- Perhaps the best 2-loss team out there
Ole Miss- seems almost a lock
Michigan- a win over OSU (again) would complicate matters
Indiana- STILL undefeated
USC- 8-2 with Oregon this weekend
Miami, Fl- big game at Pitt the last week
BYU- big game at Cincinnati this week
Utah- 2 losses has them on the edge of being eliminated
Tulane- 2 losses now
James Madison- lost at Louisville by only 14

I am 99.9% sure that I will be wrong about much of this, but I would be happy if I get at least 6 of the 12 teams right, and if all 12 come from these 2 lists.

Here are teams that have played themselves into contention:

Texas A&M
Vandy
Virginia
Texas Tech
Cincinnati
Houston
USF
Navy
North Texas
San Diego State
WKU


I'll update how my picks are doing each Wednesday throughout the season.




Feel free to leave a comment. Come back tomorrow for Paul's Picks! 

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!    

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