Odds and Ends 11/26/25

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Welcome Back!


As expected, my Power Rankings did pretty well in predicting the committee rankings! My top 6 were all in the top 6 and in the 12-team bracket, I have 9 of the 12 (I have BYU, North Texas and Utah instead of Ole Miss, Tulane and Oklahoma). Of the Committee's top 25, I have all 21 in my top 25. Where we differ is in the 20s, specifically 20, 21, 23, and 24. Respectively, the committee has Arizona State (#28 in my rankings), SMU (#26 in mine), Georgia Tech (#32), and Tulane (#33). Teams in my Top 25 that the committee left out were USF, North Texas, James Madison, and Missouri.

Not too shabby!


Interconference results


I will have a full accounting next week, as there are several non-conference rivalry games this week.


Intraconference results

The Sun Belt East still leads the West 7-6, and have clinched at least a .500 record, as there is only 1 more game left.


Undefeated/Winless teams

The following teams are undefeated with a 10-0 record (unless otherwise indicated):

Indiana (11-0)
Ohio State 
Texas A&M 

We still have 3 out of 136 teams (2.2%) that remain undefeated. 

Here is how many from each conference are still undefeated:

Big Ten    2 out of 18/.111
SEC     1-16/.063
Pac 12    0-2/.000
Independents 0-2/.000
CUSA    0-10/.000
MWC    0-12/.000
MAC    0-13/.000
SBC    0-14/.000
American    0-14/.000
Big 12    0-16/.000
ACC    0-17/.000


The following team has yet to win a game:

UMass 0-12

Only 1 team finished the season winless (0.7%).

This is how many from each conference are still winless:

MAC    1 out of 13 teams
Pac 12    0-2
Ind     0-2
CUSA    0-10
MWC    0-12
SBC    0-14
American    0-14
SEC    0-16
Big 12    0-16
ACC     0-17
Big Ten     0-18


The following teams have a win, but no FBS wins:

Boston College
Charlotte
Georgia State
Oklahoma State

4 teams (2.9%) do not have an FBS win, including 2 P4 teams.

This is how many teams from each conference fall into this category:

SBC-1
American-1
Big 12-1
ACC-1
MWC-0
Pac 12-0
MAC-0
CUSA-0
SEC-0
Big Ten-0
Ind- 0


Bowl eligible/eliminated

The following teams have reached 6 wins, and thus are bowl eligible. There are 35 bowl games, so 70 teams will be needed. If you add in the 12 teams for the CFP (using some of the bowls not previously counted), then 82 teams are needed. We added 9 teams this week, which means 72 teams are now eligible, so we need 10 more. 

Alabama
Arizona
Arizona State
Boise State
BYU 
California
Central Michigan
Cincinnati
Clemson
Coastal Carolina
Duke
East Carolina
FIU
Fresno State
Georgia
Georgia Tech 
Hawaii
Houston
Illinois
Indiana 
Iowa
Iowa State
Jacksonville State
James Madison
Kennesaw State
La Tech
Louisville
LSU
Memphis 
Miami, Fl
Miami, Oh
Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri
Missouri State (if not enough teams- see next section)
Navy 
NC State
Nebraska
New Mexico
North Texas
Notre Dame
ODU
Ohio
Ohio State 
Oklahoma
Ole Miss 
Oregon
Pittsburgh
San Diego State
SMU
Southern Miss
Tennessee
TCU
Texas
Texas A&M 
Texas Tech
Toledo
Troy
Tulane
UConn
UNLV 
USC
USF
Utah
Utah State
UTSA
Vanderbilt
Virginia
Wake Forest
Washington
Western Michigan
WKU

As teams reach 7 losses, they become ineligible for a bowl, unless there are an insufficient amount of teams to fill all the bowl slots. In that case, teams that are 5-7 may be invited in the order of their Academic Progress Rate scores. Currently, UNC would be the 1st choice. Akron is ineligible for a bowl regardless of their record due to academics. Delaware and Missouri State may only go to a bowl if there are not enough eligible teams (they would be picked 1st if they reach 6 wins), so I will be listing all 3 of those teams here for now. We currently have 41 teams ineligible.

Akron
Arkansas
Ball State
Boston College
Bowling Green
Charlotte
Colorado
Colorado State
Delaware
Eastern Michigan
FAU
Florida
Georgia State
Kent State
Liberty
Maryland
Michigan State
Middle Tennessee
Missouri State
Nevada
New Mexico State
North Carolina
Northern Illinois
Northwestern
Oklahoma State
Oregon State
Purdue
Sam Houston
San Jose State
South Alabama
South Carolina
Stanford
Syracuse
Tulsa
UAB
UCLA
ULM
UMass
UTEP
Virginia Tech
West Virginia
Wyoming

Here are the remaining teams and their chances to reach a bowl game.



Team: Temple
Record: 5-6
Remaining Schedule: at NT
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Poor

Team: Mississippi State
Record: 5-6
Remaining Schedule: Ole Miss
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Poor

Team: Baylor
Record: 5-6
Remaining Schedule: Houston
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair

Team: Kansas
Record: 5-6
Remaining Schedule: Utah
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Very Poor

Team: Arkansas State
Record: 5-6
Remaining Schedule: at App St
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair

Team: Buffalo
Record: 5-6
Remaining Schedule:  Ohio
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair

Team: Rutgers
Record: 5-6
Remaining Schedule: Penn St
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair

Team: Rice
Record: 5-6
Remaining Schedule: at USF
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Very Poor

Team: Kansas State
Record: 5-5
Remaining Schedule: Colo
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Good

Team: Marshall
Record: 5-6
Remaining Schedule: Ga Sou
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair

Team: FSU
Record: 5-6
Remaining Schedule: at Fla
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Good

Team: Washington State
Record: 5-6
Remaining Schedule: Oregon St
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Good

Team: Georgia Southern
Record: 5-6
Remaining Schedule: at Marsh
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair

Team: Kentucky
Record: 5-6
Remaining Schedule: at Louisville
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair

Team: Army
Record: 5-5
Remaining Schedule: at UTSA, Navy (Phila)
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair

Team: Auburn
Record: 5-6
Remaining Schedule: Ala
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Poor

Team: UCF
Record: 5-6
Remaining Schedule: at BYU
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Poor

Team: Appalachian State
Record: 5-6
Remaining Schedule: Ark St
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Good

Team: Louisiana
Record: 5-6
Remaining Schedule: ULM
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Very Good

Team: Penn State
Record: 5-6
Remaining Schedule: at Rutgers
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Very Good

Team: Texas State
Record: 5-6
Remaining Schedule: S Ala
Chances to reach bowl eligibility: Fair



Paul's Playoff Picks

Most of my picks are still in play, but more and more teams are being eliminated each week.

As a refresher, here is the setup for the CFP:

5 slots are reserved for the 5 highest ranked conference champions; 7 slots are at-large (any team)
The top 4 seeds get a bye for the 1st round. This year, there are no allowances made for conference champions beyond being accepted into the field. The next 4 seeds get a home game for the 1st round, and the 9-12 seeds travel to play 4-8 (4 vs 12, 5 vs 11, etc.). Teams are not reseeded after the 1st round. After the 1st round, it plays out like any tournament- quarterfinals, semifinals, then finals, all at neutral sites (which I hope will change in future years).

Here is who I think makes it into this year's 12-team CFP, presented in no particular order:

Georgia- still looking good at 10-1, but still have GT ahead
Ohio State- still undefeated
Clemson- ELIMINATED
Kansas State- ELIMINATED
Notre Dame- 9-2 with 4-7 Stanford remaining
Boise State- ELIMINATED
Texas- now with 3 losses
Alabama- just has to get by Auburn
Oregon- in excellent shape at 10-1
Penn State- ELIMINATED
Georgia Tech- only chance is to make the CG and win the ACC
LSU- ELIMINATED

NOTE: Eliminated only means from an at-large spot. Some of these teams could still win their respective conferences. 


Here is the list of the next most likely teams to get in:


Oklahoma- Perhaps the best 2-loss team out there
Ole Miss- seems almost a lock
Michigan- a win over OSU (again) would complicate matters
Indiana- STILL undefeated
Miami, Fl- big game at Pitt this week
BYU- looking for a rematch with Texas Tech in the Big 12 CG
Utah- 2 losses has them on the edge of being eliminated
Tulane- 2 losses now
James Madison- lost at Louisville by only 14

I am 99.9% sure that I will be wrong about much of this, but I would be happy if I get at least 6 of the 12 teams right, and if all 12 come from these 2 lists.

Here are teams that have played themselves into contention:

Texas A&M
Vandy
Virginia
Texas Tech
USF
Navy
North Texas
San Diego State
WKU


I'll update how my picks are doing each Wednesday throughout the season.




Feel free to leave a comment. Come back tomorrow for Paul's Picks! 

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!    

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