Paul's Picks 2025 Week 14
Welcome Back!
Happy Thanksgiving! I am especially blessed this year, as my son and his wife have added a daughter to their little family, my first grandchild. And I am blessed by my loyal readers, few though they may be, for making this effort worthwhile. May this holiday fill you with joy and the warmth of family and friends.
Last week I was back up to where I want to be, as I was 48-16 (75%), making me 611-200 overall with a winning percentage of 75.3% (no change from last week). This time, it was the ACC, CUSA, and the Sun Belt that did me in.
This week we are at 67 games, 2 more than last week, as every team is playing except for 2: Akron and UConn have already completed their seasons. I'm 2-0 so far after the early games, which means I'm off to a good start (thanks MACtion!). I am barely staying above 75%, as I keep creeping ever closer to that number. Let's see if I can continue to be above 75% for the year.
So... on with the picks!
Thursday, November 27
Navy @ Memphis- The Tigers hold a 6-4 lead in the series, including winning 5 in a row from 2019-2023, but the Midshipmen won 56-44 last year. However, Navy is only 1-5 in Memphis, winning the 1st ever contest in this series in 2015. Memphis is 8-3/4-3 and on a modest 2-game losing skid, but they did have a bye last week. The Midshipmen are 8-2/6-1 and were also off last week, but they are playing for a chance to make it into the American Conference Championship game. The teams are a combined 1-3 over their last 2 games with Navy upsetting USF at home in their most recent contest. This will go down to the wire, but I have the Tigers winning at home.
Friday, November 28
Ole Miss @ Mississippi State- I wonder how focused the Rebels will be on this game with all the rumors swirling around HC Lane Kiffin. With an announcement about his future scheduled for after the game, it would be difficult for any team . The fact the announcement is coming after the game indicates that he is leaving, because if he were staying, they would have already announced it. However, it's possible he could announce to the team in the locker room just before the game that he is staying, which could give them an emotional boost. To me, all of this seems ridiculous, as the Ole Miss team should be focusing on this very important Egg Bowl, and on getting ready for the CFP. Instead, we have this nonsense. Anyway, the Rebels lead this series 66-46-6, as they've won the last 2, 4 of the last 5, and 4 of the last 5 played in Starkville. The Bulldogs are 5-6/1-6 and 1 win away from returning to a bowl after a 1-year hiatus. Ole Miss is 10-1/6-1 and still harbors slim hopes of making the SEC CG. I would not be surprised to see MSU pull the upset, but I think the Rebels will pull it out in the end, maybe on a late TD and 2-point conversion.
Utah @ Kansas- Each team has 2 wins in this series, and are 1-1 both at home and on the road, as the Jayhawks won in 1950 and 1951 and the Utes won in 1993 and 1996. UU is 9-2/6-2 and winners of 4 straight as they hope for lots of dominoes to fall to get them into the Big 12 CG, and they are 4-1 on the road. KU is 5-6/3-5, losing 4 of their last 5, and are 4-2 at home. Utah wins big.
Iowa @ Nebraska- The Cornhuskers have a 30-22-3 lead in this series that began way back in 1891 with a 22-0 Iowa win, but the Hawkeyes have won 9 of the last 10 (since 2015) including 13-10 last year, and they've won the last 6 played in Lincoln. The Huskers are 7-4/4-4 and are looking for their 1st winning Big Ten record since they were 6-3 in 2016. However, they've lost 2 of their last 3, including by 27 to Penn State last week, and they are 4-2 at home. Iowa is 7-4/5-3 and have also lost 2 of their last 3, and they are 2-2 on the road. Hawkeyes win.
Ohio @ Buffalo- The Bobcats hold a 19-11-3 lead in the series, winning the last 3, and 5 of the last 6, including 2 of the last 3 in Buffalo, but the Bulls have won 5 of the last 7 played in UB Stadium. Buffalo is 5-6/4-3 and have lost their last 2 overall, and are just 2-4 at home. Ohio is 7-4/5-2, winning 4 of their last 5, but are only 1-4 on the road (1-2 in the MAC). Something will have to give in this one. Bobcats maul the Bulls.
Kent State @ Northern Illinois- The Huskies have a commanding 23-8 lead in this series, winning the last 2, and 23 of the last 27, including wins in the 2012 and 2021 MAC Championship Games. The Golden Flashes haven't won in DeKalb since winning the very 1st contest in this series in 1949 and then again in the 3rd meeting in 1966 as they won the 1st 4 matchups overall (1950 and 1967 are the other 2). The only other wins for KSU were in 1976, 1981, and 2001, and 2021.This year, NIU is 3-8/2-5 and 2-3 at home (1-2 in the MAC). The Flashes are 4-7/3-4 and 1-5 on the road (1-2 in the MAC). This game is a true flip-of-the-coin contest, so I guess I'll go with the Huskies at home.
Air Force @ Colorado State- The Falcons have a 39-22-1 advantage, winning 7 of the last 8 (since 2016), and the last 4 played in Fort Collins, but the Rams won 21-13 last year. CSU is 2-9/1-6, a huge backslide from 8-5 last year, and they are 0-4 under interim HC Tyson Summers. They are only 2-4 at home, 1-2 in the MWC. The Air Force Academy is not much better at 3-8/2-5, and they will miss a bowl for the 2nd straight year. The Falcons are 1-4 on the road (1-2 in the MWC), but 3 of their losses have been by exactly 3 points, and their biggest loss was by 19 at Utah State in their 2nd game. Falcons bomb the Rams.
Georgia vs Georgia Tech (Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta)- The Bulldogs lead this series, known as Clean, Old Fashioned Hate, by a record of 72-41-5, winning the last 7, and generally dominating the series since ending Tech's 8-game winning stretch from 1949-1956. In fact, the Yellow Jackets only have 3 other stretches of longer than 2 wins in a row: 5 in a row from 1904-1909, 3 in a row from 1961-63, and 3 straight from 1998-2000. I guess you could technically count the time from 1914-1925, when the Jackets were 3-0-1, but the tie in 1915 breaks up the winning streak. Despite their recent dominance, the Dawgs still don't have a streak to match GT's 8-game run, winning 7 in a row twice before from 1991-1997 and from 2001-2007, but a win here would be UGA's 8th in a row. Interestingly, Georgia Tech hasn't won in Atlanta since 1999 as they are harboring a 12-game home losing streak. But this won't be played in Grant Field; this will be played at the home of the Atlanta Falcons, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, where the Bulldogs are 6-5, with 4 losses to Alabama and 1 to LSU. I could not find any records of Georgia Tech having ever played there, but that doesn't mean they haven't. The Yellow Jackets are 9-2, but have lost 2 of their last 3 while giving up 124 points in that span (and scoring 100). UGA is 10-1 with their only loss at home to Alabama, as they are 4-0 away from Sanford Stadium this season. Dawgs win to tie Tech's record 8-game winning streak and claim the Governor's Cup yet again.
San Diego State @ New Mexico- The Aztecs hold a 29-16 lead in this series, winning 9 of the last 10 (since 2009), but the Lobos won 21-16 last year (though they haven't won in Albuquerque since 2008). SDSU is 9-2/6-1 and gets into the MWC CG with a win or a UNLV loss. UNM is 8-3/5-2 and gets into the MWC CG with a win and a Boise State loss, so it's possible that these 2 could meet again next weekend. The Aztecs lost at Washington State and at Hawaii, so they are 3-2 on the road. The Lobos lost at Michigan, at SJSU, and at Boise State (which is why they need the Broncos to lose), so they are 5-0 at home, probably the 1st time in many years that has happened, if ever. There are so many tough games to pick this weekend, and this is one of the toughest. I'll go with the Lobos at home, which will deprive me the chance of seeing the Aztecs on TV during the regular season.
Temple @ North Texas- The Mean Green has won this game each of the last 2 years, but last year was only by a 24-17 score. The Owls are 5-6/3-4, their most wins since they were 8-5 in 2019, but they've lost 3 in a row and are 3-2 on the road, leaving them 1 win shy of qualifying for a bowl. UNT is 10-1/6-1, and has already tied their record for wins in a season. The Mean Green were 10-2 in 1947 under HC Odus Mitchell and winning the Lone Star Conference, and though they finished 9-2 in 1977 under HC Hayden Fry as a Division I Independent, their record was later changed to 10-1 after a forfeit by Mississippi State due to playing ineligible players. UNT wins to clinch a spot in the American Conference CG and deny Temple a bowl game.
Boise State @ Utah State- The Broncos hold a dominating 24-5 lead over the Aggies, and have won the last 9 (since 2016), and 21 of the last 22 (since 1998). However, USU's last 2 wins have come in Logan, and 3 of their 5 wins have been in Maverik Stadium. Boise State is still alive in the MWC with a 7-4/5-2 record, but they are 2-3 on the road and have lost 2 of their last 3 games overall. The Aggies are 6-5/4-3, and they are 5-0 at home, but none of the wins were over a team with a winning record. Broncos win.
Indiana @ Purdue- The Boilermakers lead the Battle for the Old Oaken Bucket 77-43-6, winning 3 of the last 4, and 5 of the last 7, but the Hoosiers won 66-0 last year. Expect a similar result as IU is 11-0/8-0 and Purdue is 2-9/0-8 in HC Barry Odom's 1st year in West Lafayette. Hoosiers win big.
Texas A&M @ Texas- The Longhorns have a huge 77-37-5 lead in this series, winning the last 2 (2011 and 17-7 last year), and the last 3 played in College Station. Most of TAMU's wins came in the 1980's and 1990's, when they were 10-1 from 1984-1994. The Aggies are 11-0/7-0 and 1 win from playing in the SEC CG for the very 1st time. UT is 8-3/5-2 and are 5-0 at home, but Vandy is the only one of those wins that has a winning record. I'm still not convinced Texas A&M is all that good as Notre Dame, LSU, and Missouri are the only wins over teams with a winning record, but all of those were on the road. I'm also not convinced that Texas is all that good, either. All of this is to say that this could go either way, but I think the Horns win at home.
Arizona @ Arizona State- The Wildcats lead the Battle for the Territorial Cup 51-45-1, winning 2 of the last 3, but the Sun Devils won 49-7 last year. Arizona is 8-3/5-3 and on a 4-game winning streak, as they are 2-2 on the road this season. ASU is 8-3/6-2 winning 3 in a row, but they are 5-1 at home. This should be a good one! ASU wins.
Saturday, November 29
Ohio State @ Michigan - The Wolverines lead this series 62-51-6, and as everyone knows- unless you've been living under a rock- has won the last 4, which broke a streak of the Buckeyes winning 17 of 19 between 2001 and 2019 (though the 2010 win was vacated). The teams have played every year since 1918, with the exception of 2020. They 1st met in 1897 and played 14 times through 1912 before taking a hiatus, beginning their streak in 1918. OSU is 11-0/8-0, as they have won at least 11 games every year since 2012 (except for 7-1 in 2020), and 18 of the last 19 full seasons (since 2006). In fact, the only regular season game the Bucks have lost in 2 of the last 4 seasons is to Michigan (in 2021 and 2024 they also lost to Oregon). UM is 9-2/7-1 and on a roll with 5 straight wins, and they are 5-0 at home this season, and have won 10 of their last 11 home games. Can the Wolverines pull off a 5th win in a row in the series, something they haven't done since 6 straight from 1922-27? Though to be fair, they did have runs of 13-0-2 from 1897-1918, 6-0-1 from 1945-51 (7-7 tie in 1949), and 5-0-1 from 1988-93 (13-13 tie in 1992). The Ohio State University wins The Game.
Texas Tech @ West Virginia- This series is tied at 7 wins apiece, with the Red Raiders winning 5 of the last 6, including 52-15 last year, but the Mountaineers won the last time this was played in Morgantown. WVU also owns a victory in the 1938 Sun Bowl by a score of 7-6. TTU is 10-1/7-1, on a 4-game roll, 3-1 on the road, and were off last week. Oh, and a win puts them in the Big 12 Championship Game for the 1st time ever. The Mountaineers are 4-7/2-6, but have won 2 of their last 3, and lost to Arizona State 25-23, whereas TT lost to the Sun Devils by a 26-22 score. They are 3-2 at home and were also off last week. The Red Raiders ride roughshod over WVU.
Miami @ Pittsburgh- The winner of this game may or may not make the ACC Championship, but who wins may decide which other team makes it in- Duke or Ga Tech, if SMU or UVA (or both!) stumble. The Hurricanes have a large 29-12-1 lead in this series that began way back in 1950, and they've won 4 of the last 5, but the Panthers won the last time they met, in 2022. The Canes are 9-2/5-2, winning their last 3, and they are 2-1 on the road (1-1 outside the state of Florida). Pitt is 8-3/6-1, winning 6 of their last 7, and are 4-2 at home. Both teams have good offenses, but Miami has the better defense. Canes win.
Houston @ Baylor- The Cougars had a chance to make the Big 12 CG, but like Ga Tech, they've lost 2 of their last 3 to fall out of the race. Baylor began the season as one of the favorites to win the conference, but is now fighting just to make a bowl. All this is to say I'm not sure which team will be more motivated to win this. The Bears lead the series 15-14-1, winning 5 of the last 7 (since 1991), including 20-10 last year, but UH won the last time this contest was played in Waco, and 3 of the last 5 there. Baylor is 5-6/3-5, losing their last 2, and 4 of their last 5, and are only 3-3 at home. The Cougars are 8-3/5-3, but are 5-0 on the road. UH wins.
Kentucky @ Louisville- The Wildcats hold a narrow 19-16 lead in this series, winning 5 of the last 6 on the field (the 2021 victory was vacated), but the Cardinals won 41-14 last year. These teams matched up 6 times between 1912 and 1924, all won by the Cats, and then suspended the series for 70 years before picking it back up in 1994, whereupon they have played every year since for the Governor's Cup. UK is 5-6, winning 3 of their last 4, and are 1 win from returning to a bowl after a 1-year hiatus, but they are only 1-3 away from Lexington. UL is 7-4, but have lost 3 in a row, and are 4-3 at home. UK wins.
Clemson @ South Carolina- The winner of this game will be able to redeem their season (somewhat). The Palmetto Bowl has been played continuously since 1909 (except for 2020), and they also met 6 times between 1896 and 1902, with the Tigers owning a 73-44-4 lead. However, the Gamecocks have won 2 of the last 3, including 17-14 last year, but have lost the last 5 played in Columbia. SC is 4-7 and are just 3-3 at home. Clemson is 6-5, winning their last 3 and are 3-1 on the road, so all signs are pointing to a CU win. But I think SC pulls the upset.
Colorado @ Kansas State- The Buffaloes have a huge 45-21-1 lead in this series, but the Wildcats have won 4 of the last 6, including 31-28 last year. CU is 3-8/1-7, having lost each of their last 4 contests, and they are 0-4 on the road. KSU is 5-6/4-4, one win from their 5th consecutive bowl, and 3-2 at home. Cats take down the Buffs.
Iowa State @ Oklahoma State- The Cowboys lead the series 34-21-3, but the Cyclones have won 2 of the last 3, including 34-27 in their last meeting in 2023. ISU is 7-4/4-4, winning their last 2 after a midseason 4-game slide, and they are 3-2 away from Jack Trice Stadium. OSU is a miserable 1-10/0-8, with no FBS wins, as they've lost 19 FBS contests in a row, and 18 consecutive Big 12 games. However, the Cowboys have won 5 of the last 6 games in this series played in Stillwater. Cyclones blow away the Cowboys.
East Carolina @ FAU- The Pirates have won all 3 matchups with the Owls, winning in 2013, 2023, and 49-14 last year, with all 3 by at least 15 points each. FAU is 4-7/3-4 and 3-2 at home, but they've lost their last 2, and 4 of their last 5 overall. ECU is 7-4/5-2 with their loss last week ending a 4-game win streak, and they are just 2-3 on the road. The Pirates win.
Toledo @ Central Michigan- The Rockets own a comfortable 30-20-3 lead in the series, winning the last 3 (37-10 last year), and 13 of the last 15 (since 2010), but the Chippewas have won 2 of the last 3 played in Mount Pleasant. Both teams are 7-4/5-2 as a win in this game could very well place that team in the MAC Championship Game. CMU has won their last 2 games, and 4 of their last 5, and they are 4-0 at home. The Chips have also had a little extra time to prepare, as their last game was Wednesday, Nov 19. Toledo has won 3 in a row but is only 1-3 away from the Glass Bowl. Comparative scores are very close, so it all comes down to a feeling. The Rockets win a close one.
Ball State @ Miami, Oh- The Redhawks lead the series 24-13-1, winning the last 5 (27-21 last year), 8 of the last 9, and the last 4 played in Oxford. The Cardinals are 4-7/3-4, losing their last 2, and they are a pitiful 0-6 on the road. Miami is 6-5/5-2, and are 3-2 at home, but they've lost 2 of their last 3 overall. Redhawks win.
UCF @ BYU- The Cougars have a 3-1 lead, including wins in the 2020 Boca Raton Bowl and 37-24 last year, but they've only ever played in Provo once before, in their 1st meeting in 2011. The Knights are 5-6/2-6 and need just 1 more win to secure a bowl berth, as their win over OSU last week ended a 3-game skid. Unfortunately, UCF is 0-4 on the road this season, and they've lost 8 consecutive games away from the Bounce House. BYU is 10-1/7-1 and 5-0 at home, and have won 10 of their last 11 in Provo. A win in this game secures a spot in the Big 12 CG for the 1st time for the Cougars. BYU wins big.
UTEP @ Delaware- The Miners are 2-9/1-6, losing their last 4, but their last 3 were all by 6 points or less, with 2 by exactly 3 points. They are also 1-4 on the road. The Blue Hens are 5-6/3-4, losing their last 2, and are a good 4-1 at home. A win here could get Delaware into a bowl, if there aren't enough bowl eligible teams. The Blue Hens peck their way to victory in this 1st time matchup.
FIU @ Sam Houston- These teams have only played each of the last 2 years, with the visiting team winning each time. The Panthers are 6-5/4-3, qualifying for a bowl for the 1st time since 2019, as they are on a 3-game winning steak but just 2-3 on the road. The Bearkats are 2-9/1-6, winning 2 of their last 3, but only 1-3 at home. Either team could win this, but I'm going with FIU over SHS.
Georgia Southern @ Marshall- The Thundering Herd lead this series 6-3, winning 6 of the last 7 (since 1993), and the last 3 in Huntington, but the Eagles won 24-23 last year. Both teams are 5-6/3-4, so the winner will qualify for a bowl while the loser will have to wait until next year. Marshall has lost 3 of their last 4 games and are 3-2 at home (2-1 in the SBC). GS has won 2 of their last 3, but are only 1-4 on the road (1-2 in the SBC). The Herd tramples the Eagles.
WKU @ Jacksonville State- The Hilltoppers lead this series 5-3, including wins in the 2003 Division I-AA Playoffs and 19-17 last year, but the Gamecocks won 52-12 in last year's CUSA Championship Game. The winner of this game will return to the CG, and if KSU loses their game at Liberty, we could have a repeat of last year, where these teams play in back-to-back weeks. WKU is 8-3/6-1, winning 3 of their last 4 (lost 13-10 at LSU) and are 3-0 on the road in CUSA games (3-2 overall, with the aforementioned loss at LSU and at Toledo in week 3). JSU is 7-4/6-1 with their loss last week at FIU ending a 5-game winning streak, and they are 4-0 at home and on a 10-game home winning streak. Jax State wins.
La Tech @ Missouri State- The Bulldogs and Bears have met once before, with Mo State winning, but I'll be danged if I can find when or where or what the score was. LT is 6-5/4-3, losing 2 of their last 3, and they are 1-4 on the road (1-2 in CUSA). MSU is 7-4/5-2, with a loss to KSU last week ending a 5-game winning streak, and they are 3-2 at home (2-1 in CUSA). With a win, Mo State will tie for 2nd place (at worst) in CUSA in just their 1st year in FBS. Bears devour the Bulldogs.
Georgia State @ ODU- The Monarchs have won 5 of the 6 matchups in this series, with GSU's lone win coming in 2022 in Atlanta, but the last 2 wins, in 2023 and 2024, were by a combined 8 points after the 21-14 win last year. The Panthers are 1-10/0-7 with no FBS wins, and they are 1-10 on the road in the 2 years under HC Dell McGee, as they have won just 1 road game in their last 14 attempts. ODU is 8-3/5-2, finally breaking through in HC Ricky Rahne's 6th year, and they are 5-0 at home this season. Monarchs win.
Arkansas State @ Appalachian State- This game has huge stakes, because if App State wins, the East will hold the 8-6 advantage over the West Division, but if Arkansas State wins, then it will be 7-7. Just kidding; no one really cares. The Mountaineers lead the series 4-1, but Arkansas State's lone win was in Boone in 2015, and they haven't played since 2021. App State is 5-6/2-5, losing 4 of their last 5, and are 3-2 at home (1-2 in the SBC). The Red Wolves are 5-6/4-3, losing their last 2, and they are 2-3 on the road (2-1 in the SBC). The winner of this game gets the prize of bowl eligibility and the extra practices that go along with it. Red Wolves win to even the record between the divisions.
Boston College @ Syracuse- The Orange lead the series 33-24, but the Eagles have won the last 2, and 4 of the last 6, including 37-31 last year. Syracuse is 3-8/1-6. losing their last 7 after QB Steve Angeli was out for the year. They are 2-3 at home, and 0-3 in the ACC. BC is even worse, as at 1-10/0-7, are one of 2 P4 teams without an FBS win and are on a 10-game losing streak, but 3 of their losses have been by 4 points or less, and they were off last week. BC wins in a mild upset, but no one will be watching except die-hard fans of the respective teams.
Middle Tennessee @ New Mexico State- The Aggies hold a slim 4-2 lead in this series, winning the last 3 (since 2004), including 36-21 last year. The Blue Raiders are 2-9/1-6, but coming off a 31-17 win over Sam Houston, as they are 1-4 on the road. NMSU is 4-7/2-5 with a 34-31 win last week at UTEP breaking a 5-game losing streak, and they are 3-2 at home this season. Aggies win.
ULM @ Louisiana- The Ragin' Cajuns lead this series 33-26, winning the last 2 (37-23 last year) and 14 of the last 17 on the field (2011 victory was vacated). The Warhawks are 3-8/1-6, on a 7-game slide, and are 1-5 on the road (0-3 in the SBC). UL is 5-6/4-3 after winning 3 in a row, and they are 3-2 at home (2-1 in the SBC). The Cajuns win to become bowl eligible.
South Alabama @ Texas State- The Bobcats lead the series 6-4, thanks to winning the last 2, including 45-38 last year, but the Jaguars have never won in San Marcos (0-5). TSU is 5-6/2-5, winning their last 2, and are 3-2 at home, but only 1-2 in the SBC. SA is 4-7/3-4, also winning their last 2, and are 2-3 on the road, but 2-1 in the SBC. These teams have near identical results against teams in the SBC West- both lost to Arkansas State by 1, and both lost to Troy by 7 in OT, as well as both having wins over ULM and Southern Miss. *shrugs* I guess I'll go with the Bobcats at home to become bowl eligible.
UAB @ Tulsa- Both of these teams have had their moments this year, with the Blazers beating Memphis and the Golden Hurricane winning at Oklahoma State and Army and taking Temple to OT. Tulsa leads the series 4-1, but UAB got the 59-21 win last year, but has never won in H.A. Chapman Stadium. The Hurricane is 4-7/1-6, winning their last 2, and are 2-3 at home, but 0-3 in the American Conference. The Blazers are 3-8/1-6, on a 4-game losing streak, and are 0-5 on the road (0-3 in the AC). Tulsa wins at home.
Oregon @ Washington- The Huskies hold a 63-49-5 advantage in this series, winning 3 of the last 4, including in the 2023 PAC 12 Championship Game, but the Ducks won 49-21 last year, and have won 2 of the last 3 played in Seattle. This year, UW is 8-3/5-3, winning their last 2, and they are 5-1 at home with their only loss to #1 Ohio State. UO is 10-1/7-1, losing only to #2 Indiana at home, as they've won their last 11 regular season road games (4-0 this year), with their last road loss to the Huskies in 2023. The Quack Attack wins again to all but guarantee a slot in the CFP!
LSU @ Oklahoma- The Sooners own a win in the 1950 Sugar Bowl, but the Tigers have wins in the 2004 Sugar Bowl, the 2019 Peach Bowl (a CFP Semifinal), and 37-17 last year. This will be the first time the game will be played in Norman. The Bayou Bengals are 7-4/3-4, and 2-1 under interim HC Frank Wilson, but neither win was very convincing, and they are 1-3 on the road this season. OU is 9-2/5-2, winning 3 in a row, and are 5-1 at home, winning 7 of their last 8 in Memorial Stadium. Boomer Sooner! OU wins big.
Vanderbilt @ Tennessee- The Volunteers have dominated this series, holding a huge 79-33-5 lead and winning the last 6 on the field (2019 and 2020 wins have since been vacated). 19 of Vandy's 33 wins came in the 1st 23 matchups, between 1892 and 1926, and 2 of those 23 were ties (19-2-2 lead), but after another tie in 1927 in General Neyland's 2nd year in Knoxville, the Commodores didn't win again until 1935, when W.H. Britton stepped in for a season. This means Vandy has only won 14 times since 1926, and they've played every year since 1900 except for 1906-07, 1911-12, 1917, and 19443-44. The Dores are 9-2/5-2, winning 4 of their last 5, as they are 2-2 on the road, but they haven't won in Neyland Stadium since 2017. UT is 8-3/4-3, winning 2 in a row, and are 4-2 at home, their 1st time losing 2 at home since the 2021 season. The Vols usually win this game, as illustrated by their long dominance, but occasionally the Commodores jump up and win. This is one of those times. Vandy wins.
Missouri @ Arkansas- The Tigers own an 11-4 edge in the series, winning the last 3 (28-21 last year), and they also have a win in the 2008 Cotton Bowl. The Razorbacks have wins in 1944, the 2003 Independence Bowl, 2015, and 2021, with the last 2 in Fayetteville. Mizzou is 7-4/3-4, but have lost 3 of their last 4 and are 1-2 on the road in the SEC. The Hogs are 2-9/0-7 and 0-6 under interim HC Bobby Petrino, but 5 of their losses have been by 6 points or less, and only 1 has been by more than 15 points, as they are 2-4 at home (0-3 in the SEC). The Tigers win to claim the Battle Line Trophy.
Wisconsin @ Minnesota- After 134 matchups, this series is tied at 63-63-8, thanks to the Golden Gophers winning 3 of the last 4, including 24-7 last year to claim Paul Bunyon's Axe. But the Badgers have won 9 of the last 10 played in Minneapolis. Minnesota is 6-5/4-4, losing their last 2, but they are 6-0 at home. UW is 4-7/2-6, winning 2 of their last 3, but are 0-4 on the road. Yikes! Gophers win.
Penn State @ Rutgers- In one of the most dominating series of all time, the Nittany Lions lead 32-2, winning the last 17, as the Scarlet Knights have never defeated the Lions at home. Both teams are 5-6/2-6, so the winner of this game becomes bowl eligible. PS is 1-3 on the road, and Rutgers is 4-2 at home (1-2 in the Big Ten). The Lions have won their last 2 games, so it appears they have turned their season around late. Penn State wins a close one.
Wake Forest @ Duke- The Blue Devils have a substantial 61-41-2 lead in this series, winning the last 3 (23-17 last year), but the Demon Deacons have won 2 of the last 3 played in Durham. WF is 8-3/4-3, winning their last 3, and 6 of their last 7, and they are 3-1 on the road (2-1 in the ACC). Duke is 6-5/5-2, losing 2 of their last 3, and only 2-3 at home, 1-2 in the ACC. The Demon Deacons will exorcise the Blue Devils.
Cincinnati @ TCU- This series is tied 2-2, with the Horned Frogs winning the only contest played in Ft. Worth, back in 2003, and winning 20-13 last year. The Bearcats are 7-4/5-3 and have lost 3 in a row, but are 2-1 on the road in the Big 12. TCU is 7-4/4-4, losing 2 of their last 3, but are 4-1 at home (2-1 in the Big 12). Frogs win at home.
Kennesaw State @ Liberty- The teams are tied at 2 wins apiece, and each 2-2 both at home and on the road, but the Owls have won the last 2, including 27-24 last year for their 1st ever win as a member of the FBS. KSU is 8-3/6-1 and a win in this game puts them in the CUSA Championship Game in just their 2nd year in the conference. They've won 8 of their last 9 after starting the season 0-2 (losses at Wake Forest by 1 and at Indiana), as they are 2-1 on the road in CUSA. The Flames are 4-7/3-4 and already assured of their worst record since joining the FBS in 2018, and they've lost 3 straight and are 2-1 at home in CUSA (3-2 overall). The Owls swoop in and snuff out the Flames.
Troy @ Southern Miss- The winner of this game will represent the SBC West in the Championship Game against James Madison. The Golden Eagles lead the series 8-6, but the Trojans have won the last 4, including 52-20 last year. Most of USM's wins came from 1936 to 1940 (Troy won the 1st meeting in 1935), with their other wins in 1977, the 2008 New Orleans Bowl, and in 2019, the 1st time this game was ever played in Troy, as they've met in Hattiesburg 8 times, and once each in Dothan and Montgomery. Both teams come into this game at 7-4/5-2, with the Eagles losing their last 2 and the Trojans losing 2 of their last 3. Troy is 3-2 on the road (2-1 in the SBC) while USM is 4-2 at home (2-1 in the SBC). The Golden Eagles win at home.
Army @ UTSA- The Black Knights hold a 4-1 edge over the Roadrunners, winning the last 2, and 29-24 last year. This year, Army West Point is 5-5/3-4, winning 2 of their last 3, and are 3-2 on the road (1-2 in the conference). UTSA is 6-5/4-3, winning their last 2, and are 4-1 at home, 3-0 in the American. When the Roadrunners are good, they are very good, but when they are bad... well, you know how the nursery rhyme goes. The question is which UTSA team will show up? Meep! Meep! Roadrunners win and keep the Knights from a bowl.
James Madison @ Coastal Carolina- The Dukes have won 4 in a row in this series, taking a 4-1 lead after the Chanticleers won the initial contest in 2005 in Conway. JMU has a win in 2007, and then each of the last 3 years, including 39-7 last year. At 10-1/7-0, the Dukes have already clinched a berth in the SBC CG, but they have bigger fish to fry; if things break right for them, they could end up in the CFP. CCU is 6-5/5-2, losing their last 2, but they are 4-1 at home, and 3-0 in the SBC at home. This won't be easy, but JMU pulls out the win.
UCLA @ USC- The Trojans lead this series 51-34-7, winning 19-13 last year, but they only lead 7-6 over the last 13 years, and the Bruins have won the last 2 times they have met in the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. UCLA is 3-8/3-5, losing their last 4, and they are 1-4 on the road (1-3 in the Big Ten). The Men of Troy are 8-3/6-2, winning 3 of their last 4, and they are an outstanding 6-0 at home (4-0 in the Big Ten). USC takes home the Victory Bell.
FSU @ Florida- The Gators own a 38-28-2 advantage in this series, winning 4 of the last 6, including 31-11 last year, but the Seminoles have won 2 of the last 3, including the last one played in Gainesville. These teams have met twice in the Sugar Bowl, with FSU winning in 1995 and UF winning in 1997 to claim the 1996 National Championship. The Noles are 5-6, losing 2 of their last 3, but worse, they have lost 10 consecutive games away from Doak Campbell Stadium. Florida is only 3-8, and are 0-4 under interim HC Billy Gonzalez with 3 of those losses by 10+ points, but they are 3-2 at home this season, and 8-4 at home the last 2 seasons. One of these teams will see their misery extended for at least 1 more game, but the biggest misery would be FSU falling short of a bowl for a 2nd consecutive season. Gators chomp the Seminoles.
Oregon State @ Washington State- We have all been anxiously awaiting this tilt, to see who wins the Pac 12. Just in case you missed it, that was sarcasm, because either Oregon State wins it, or they end up tied. Also because no one really cares, at least until the expansion hits next season and they become the "State Conference". In case you miss that reference, every team in the new Pac 12 will have "State" in their name, except for Gonzaga, who doesn't field a football team. Anyway, the Cougars lead this series 57-50-3, winning 9 of the last 12, but the Beavers have won the last 2: 41-38 last season, and 10-7 on Nov 1 of this year. OSU is 1-9/1-0 and 2-2 under interim HC Robb Akey, with their only FBS win against Wazzu. WSU is 5-6/0-1, losing 2 of their last 3, but they are 4-1 at home with their only loss to rival Washington. Cougars win at home to create a tie atop the conference.
Virginia Tech @ Virginia- The Hokies own a large 62-38-5 advantage in this series, winning the last 4 (37-17 last year), and 19 of the last 20 (since 2004), but UVA's only win in that time came in Charlottesville in 2019. VT is 3-8/2-5, their worst season since they were 3-8 in 2022, as they've lost 3 in a row and are 1-3 away from Lane Stadium (1-2 in the ACC), but they are 3-5 under interim HC Philip Montgomery. UVA is 9-2/6-1 with a win here vaulting them into the ACC Championship Game. The Cavaliers have split their last 2 games, and are 5-1 at home, and 2-1 at home in the ACC. The Hoos also had last week off to prepare for this game. Wahoos win, but the Hokies will give them everything they've got.
Maryland vs Michigan State (Detroit)- The Spartans hold a 10-4 edge in the series winning 27-24 last year (since vacated), but the Terrapins have won 2 of the last 3. The Terps are 4-7/1-7 and on a 7-game losing streak and are 1-3 on the road in the Big Ten. MSU is 3-8/0-8 and on an 8-game losing streak, and 0-3 at home in the Big Ten (and 0-5 on the road, as this is a "neutral" site). One of those losing streaks will have to end, unless this game ends in a tie. Ha ha! Just kidding! We don't have ties anymore. Spartans win.
Rice @ USF- Each team has won once in this series, with the Bulls winning in 2023 in Tampa and Rice winning 35-28 last year in Houston. USF is 8-3/5-2, winning 2 of their last 3, and are an outstanding 6-0 at home. Rice is 5-6/2-5 and striving to reach a bowl, as they've split their last 4 games and are 2-2 on the road (1-2 in the conference). I'll be rooting hard for the Owls to be victorious and reach a bowl, but the Bulls will probably win big.
Alabama @ Auburn- The Crimson Tide lead the Iron Bowl 51-37-1, winning the last 5 (28-14 last year), but each of Auburn's last 3 wins in the series have come in Jordan-Hare Stadium (2013, 2017, and 2019). The Tide are 9-2/6-1, needing only a win in this game to clinch a berth in the SEC Championship Game, but they've split their last 2 games, and are 3-1 on the road (3-0 in the SEC). The Tigers are 5-6/1-6, needing this win to get to a bowl, but they are 1-1 under interim HC DJ Durkin (win over FCS Mercer last week), and are 3-3 at home, but 0-3 in the SEC. The War Eagles will give them a fight, but Bama rolls on the Plains.
Northwestern @ Illinois- The Fighting Illini have a slim 58-55-5 lead in this series, winning 3 of the last 4, including 38-28 last year, but the Wildcats won the last time this was played in Champaign, and indeed, have won 4 of the last 5 played there. The Cats are 6-5/4-4, losing 3 of their last 4, and are 1-3 on the road (0-3 in the Big Ten). The Illini are 7-4/4-4, winning 2 of their last 3, and are 5-1 at home, with their only loss to Ohio State. Illinois wins the Land of Lincoln Trophy.
Charlotte @ Tulane- The Green Wave won 34-3 last year in their only prior meeting. The 49ers are1-10/0-7 with no FBS wins, and they're losing by more than 20 ppg. Tulane is 9-2/6-1 and 5-0 at home, with 2 of those wins over P4 foes, both of which are bowl bound. The Green Wave washes over Charlotte.
North Carolina @ NC State- The Tar Heels lead this series 68-40-6, but the Wolfpack have won the last 4 (35-30 last year), and 7 of the last 9. The Heels are 4-7/2-5, losing their last 2, and only 2-3 away from Kenan Memorial Stadium, 1-2 in the ACC. NC State is 6-5/3-4, winning 2 of their last 3, and 5-1 in Carter-Finley Stadium, with their only loss to Va Tech, of all teams. This game shouldn't be close, but UNC will not go down easily. The Wolfpack wins.
SMU @ California- The Mustangs have the only 2 wins in the series: 13-6 in 1957 in Berkeley, and 38-6 last year in Dallas. The Golden Bears are 6-5/3-4 and just fired HC Justin Wilcox and replaced him with interim HC Nick Rolovich, so this will be his 1st contest as HC. Cal has lost 3 of its last 4, and are 3-2 at home, but just 1-2 in the ACC. SMU is 8-3/6-1 and only needing a win in this game to make the ACC CG. The Ponies are on a 3-game winning streak and are 3-2 on the road, 2-1 in the ACC. The Pony Express rides again to beat the Bears.
UNLV @ Nevada- The Wolf Pack lead this series 28-22, but the Rebels have won the last 3 (38-14 last year), and 4 of the last 6 played in Reno. UNLV is 9-2/5-2, winning their last 3, and 4-1 on the road (2-1 in the MWC). Nevada is 3-8/2-5, winning their last 2, and are only 2-3 at home (1-2 in the MWC). UNLV wins and claims the Fremont Cannon, which could propel them into the MWC CG, depending on results elsewhere.
Notre Dame @ Stanford- The Fighting Irish only lead the series 23-14, and that's thanks to winning 5 of the last 6 (since 2018, 49-7 last year), as they've won the last 3 played at Stanford. Their 1st meeting ever was in the 1925 Rose Bowl, a 27-10 Irish victory. The Cardinal are 4-7, losing 3 of their last 4, but are 4-1 at home. ND is 9-2, on a 9-game winning streak, and just need this win to secure a spot in the CFP (most likely). The Irish win big to claim the Legends Trophy.
Fresno State @ San Jose State- The Bulldogs hold a 45-39-3 lead in the Battle for the Valley, winning 5 of the last 7 (33-10 last year), but the Spartans have won 2 of the last 3 played in San Jose. FS is 7-4/4-3, winning 2 of their last 3, and are 2-2 on the road (2-1 in the MWC). SJSU is 3-8/2-5, losing 3 in a row, and 3-2 at home (2-1 in the MWC). The Bulldogs win to claim the Valley Trophy.
Wyoming @ Hawaii- The Cowboys lead the series 17-11, winning the last 2, but the Rainbow Warriors have played nearly even since 2014 (3-4), and are 2-1 in Honolulu in that time. This season, Wyoming is 4-7/2-5, losing their last 3, but only 1-4 on the road (0-3 in the MWC). UH is 7-4/4-3, losing 2 of their last 3, and are 5-1 at home (2-1 in the MWC). The Rainbow Warriors win to claim the Paniolo Trophy.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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