Paul's Picks 2025 Bowls Part 2

Welcome Back

So far in the early bowls and CFP games (and the Army-Navy game), I am a miserable 5-7 (41.7%), making me 675-224 overall with a winning percentage of 75.1% (down 0.4% from last week). You should know that I often root against my picks, as I rarely go with my heart- I almost always pick the team I think will win, not the one I hope wins.

So now we have more bowl games, and the CFP Quarterfinals to go, as well as the semifinals and the final. Full disclaimer- I'm usually around 50% for bowls, as they are notoriously difficult to predict, due to coaching changes, opt-outs, etc. In other words, don't bet the house based on my picks; it's all a crapshoot anyway, but I'm going to give it the ol' College Try!

So...on with the picks!

Monday, December 22

Washington State vs Utah State (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl- Boise, ID) - The Famous Idaho Potato Bowl has been around since 1997, first as the Humanitarian Bowl (1997-2004, 2007-2010), then the Micron PC Bowl (2004-2006), before finally settling on its current name in 2011. Utah State has the most appearances in this bowl, but are only 1-4 with their lone win in 2012. This will be WSU's 1st time here. Both teams have been relatively unsuccessful in bowls, with USU at 6-10, losing their last 2, and WSU at 8-11, losing their last 4 (since 2019). WSU leads the series 3-2, winning in 1949, 1950, and 49-28 last year, with Utah State winning in 1961 and 2021. Both teams are 6-6, with the Aggies alternating losses and wins over the last 7 games, and the Cougars doing the same over the last 6. Wazzu is 1-5 away from Gesa Field at Martin Stadium in Pullman, while USU is also 1-5 outside of Maverik Stadium. Kinda eerie how similar the results for these teams are, so I'm going with the one coached by Bronco Mendenhall over the team with an interim HC. Aggies win a close one.

Tuesday, December 23

Toledo vs Louisville (Bush's Boca Raton Bowl- Boca Raton, FL)- The Boca Raton Bowl has been around since 2014. With this appearance, Toledo will tie WKU with the most all-time as they enter this matchup 2-0 here, winning contests in 2015 and 2022. This will be Louisville's 1st appearance, but the ACC is 0-1 here following a loss by Syracuse in 2023. The MAC is 2-3, so the Rockets own both wins. Toledo is 12-10 in bowl games, winning 3 of their last 4, while Louisville is just 13-13-1, winning 2 of their last 3. UL leads the series by only 5-3, but the last meeting was in 1981, as they played their other 7 contests between 1925 and 1958. The Cardinals are 8-4, but lost 3 of their last 4 as they are 3-1 away from L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. Toledo is also 8-4, but only 2-4 away from the Glass Bowl, but they enter this game on a 4-game winning streak. In a rare twist (for this year), both teams will be coached by the same person who coached the team all year, and both are scheduled to be there next year. UL wins big.

WKU vs Southern Miss (New Orleans Bowl- New Orleans, LA)- The New Orleans Bowl began play in 2001, with USM having the 2nd most appearances, just 1 behind Louisiana's 7. At 4-1, the Golden Eagles have the 2nd best winning percentage behind WKU's 1-0 following a win in 2022. WKU is 7-4 in bowls and making their 7th straight bowl trip, winning 3 of their last 4, while USM is 12-13, losing 2 of their last 3 (since 2017). The Hilltoppers lead this series 4-0, winning games in 2012, the 2015 CUSA CG, 2019 (in Hattiesburg), and 2020. WKU is 8-4, but lost their last 2 by 3 points each to LSU and Jax State, and are 3-3 on the road, including those last 2 losses. USM is 7-5 and are also coming into this game on a losing streak, losing the last 3 to miss the SBC CG. The Eagles were 3-2 away from M.M. Roberts Stadium. The Golden Eagles win to break losing streaks for this season and in the series.

UNLV vs Ohio (Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl- Frisco, TX)- The Frisco Bowl is relatively new, being established only in 2017, and this will be UNLV's 1st appearance here, but Ohio will be making their 2nd, winning in the 2nd iteration in 2018 by a score of 27-0 over San Diego State. The MWC is 2-2 in this bowl, but the MAC is a perfect 2-0, with both of those wins over MWC teams. The Bobcats are 8-8 in bowls, winning their last 6 (since 2017) while the Rebels are 4-2, winning their last 2. Ohio comes into this game at 8-4, winning their last 2 and 4 of their last 5, as they are only 2-4 away from Peden Stadium, though 2 of those losses were to Big Ten teams. However, HC Brian Smith has just been fired for cause, so the Bobcats will be led by interim HC John Hauser, the DC. UNLV is 10-3, having lost a 3rd straight MWC CG to Boise State, which broke a 4-game winning streak. The Rebs were 5-2 away from Allegiant Stadium, with both losses at Boise State. These teams have met once before, with UNLV winning 26-18 in September of 1988 in Las Vegas. UNLV wins big.

Wednesday, December 24

California vs Hawaii (Sheraton Hawaii Bowl- Honolulu, HI)- The Hawaii Bowl was 1st contested in 2002, but was canceled in back-to-back years in 2020 and 2021. Unsurprisingly, Hawaii has been the most frequent participant as this will be their 10th appearance, 7 more than any other team. The Rainbow Warriors are 5-4 here, winning their most recent contest in 2019 (they were scheduled to appear in 2021). The Mountain West is 4-7 in this game (the WAC was 4-6), but both Cal and the ACC will be making their 1st appearance (Pac 12 teams were 1-1). UH is 8-6 in bowl games, meaning 60% have been in this bowl, and they've won their last 2 (in 2019 and 2020). The Golden Bears are 12-13-1 in bowls, losing their last 2, and 3 of their last 4 (since 2018). This game will mark the return of former UH HC and current Cal interim HC Nick Rolovich to the Islands. Cal is 7-5, winning 2 of their last 3, and are a respectable 3-3 away from California Memorial Stadium. UH is 8-4, also winning 2 of their last 3, and are 6-1 at home in Clarence TC Ching Athletics Complex, where this game will be played. In the series, Cal holds a slight 3-2 edge, winning contests in 1968, 1993 (both in Honolulu), and the most recent meeting in 2016 (51-31 in Sydney, Australia), with the Warriors winning in the 1935 New Years Classic (played on Jan 1 in Honolulu) and 1994 in Berkeley. This is yet another contest that looks evenly matched, but I like the Rainbow Warriors at home.

Friday, December 26

Central Michigan vs Northwestern (GameAbove Sports Bowl- Detroit, MI)- This bowl game began life in 2014 as the Quick Lane Bowl before changing last year to its current name. CMU is 0-1 here following a loss in 2015, part of the MAC's 2-5 record in this bowl. This will Northwestern's 1st appearance, but the Big Ten is 4-1 here in Detroit, with the only loss by Maryland in 2016 to Boston College. The Wildcats are 7-10 in bowl games, winning their last 5 (since 2016), while the Chippewas are 4-9, with their win in the 2021 Sun Bowl breaking a 5-bowl losing streak (since 2014). NU is 6-6, but lost 4 of their last 5, and were just 1-4 away from Ryan Field. CMU is 7-5, winning 2 of their last 3, and are 3-4 away from Kelly/Shorts Stadium, with 2 of those losses at P4 teams Pitt and Michigan (by a combined 88 points). The Wildcats won the only previous contest 30-25 in 2010, and they'll win this one as well, probably by a similar score.

New Mexico vs Minnesota (Rate Bowl- Phoenix, AZ)- This bowl has had several names, beginning life as the Copper Bowl (1989-1996), then becoming the Insight.com Bowl (1997-2001), the Insight Bowl (2002-2011), the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl (2012-2013), the Cactus Bowl (2015-2017), the Cheez-It Bowl (2018-2019), the Guaranteed Rate Bowl (2020-2023, but the 2020 game was canceled because, well, you know why...), before finally settling in as just the Rate Bowl in 2024. This game has also moved around a bit, but always staying in Arizona, as it's been played in Tucson, Phoenix, Tempe, and now back in Phoenix. Minnesota is 1-3 here (win in 2021), and this appearance will tie them for most all-time with Kansas State. UNM is 0-1 in this bowl, losing to Arizona in 1997. The Big Ten is only 6-7 here, while the MWC is just 1-2. The Lobos are 4-8-1 all-time in bowls, but they've won 2 of their last 3 (since 2007) and are making their 1st bowl appearance since 2016, breaking the 2nd longest bowl-less streak, leaving only 6 teams that haven't been to a bowl in the 2020s. Those 6 teams? Those would be UMass 1972, ULM 2012, Stanford 2018, Charlotte 2019, and Temple, also 2019. There were several others (and some that had never made a bowl), but those are all going bowling this season. Anyway, the Golden Gophers are 13-12 in bowls, winning their last 8. Minnesota is 7-5, losing 2 of their last 3, and are an incredible 0-5 away from Huntington Bank Stadium. UNM is 9-3, on a 6-game winning streak, their longest since they started the 1997 season 6-0 under HC Dennis Franchione (with a win at the end of the '96 season making it a 7-game streak). The Lobos will upset the Gophers in this 1st ever meeting to extend their streak.

FIU vs UTSA (SERVPRO First Responder Bowl- Dallas, TX)- This is another bowl that has changed names over the years, starting as the TicketCity Bowl (2011-2012), then the Heart of Dallas Bowl (2013-2017), and finally the First Responder Bowl beginning in 2018. UTSA is 0-1 here, losing in 2020 to Louisiana, and the American Conference is 1-2 in this game. FIU will be making it's 1st appearance in this game, but CUSA teams are 4-3, with one of those losses by UTSA, who was a member from 2013-2022. The Panthers are 2-3 in bowls, but this appearance will break one of the longest bowl-less streak, as all of their bowl games were between 2010 and 2019. The Roadrunners have been even less successful at 2-4, but they've won their last 2 after starting 0-4. FIU is 7-5, winning their last 4, and they are 3-3 away from Riccardo Silva Stadium, with 2 of those at Penn State and UConn. UTSA is 6-6, winning 2 of their last 3, and are 2-4 away from the Alamadome, with one of those losses at Texas A&M. The series is tied at 2 wins apiece, with the Panthers winning in 2017 and 2018, and UTSA in 2014 and 2022, so each is 1-1 both home and away. Meep! Meep! Roadrunners win.

Saturday, December 27

Pittsburgh vs East Carolina (Go Bowling Military Bowl- Annapolis, MD)- The Military Bowl was 1st held in 2008 and was known as the EagleBank Bowl for 2 years before adopting its current name. ECU is 1-1 here, losing to Maryland in 2020 and winning here last year 26-21 over NC State. This 3rd appearance will tie them with Navy, Va Tech, and Temple for the most all-time. Pitt is 0-1 in this bowl, losing to Navy in 2015. The ACC has the most appearances, and are 7-5, while the American have the 2nd most, and are 4-5. The Pirates are 8-9 in bowl games, winning their last 2. The Panthers are 15-23 in bowls, losing their last 3, including last year in 6 OTs to Toledo. Both teams are 8-4, with Pitt losing 2 of their last 3 and ECU winning 5 of their last 6. However, the Panthers are 4-1 away from Acrisure Stadium, while ECU is only 3-3 away from Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium. The series is tied at 2-2, with Pitt winning in 1984 and 1989 and the Pirates in 1991 and 1992, including the only one played in Greenville. Pitt wins to take the lead in the series.

Penn State vs Clemson (Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl- Bronx, NY)- If someone had told me that these 2 teams would be playing each other in the postseason, I would have assumed they meant in the CFP. That is obviously not the case, as both teams had disappointing seasons after starting the season in the AP Top 5. The Pinstripe Bowl has been around since 2010, and since 2014, has pitted an ACC team against one from the Big Ten, as this year's edition does. Penn State is 1-0 in this game, winning 31-30 in OT over Boston College in 2014, as the Big Ten is 9-1 here. Clemson will be making their 1st appearance, as the ACC is 1-9 with their lone win coming from Duke in 2015 with an OT win over Indiana, 44-41. The Nittany Lions are 33-21-2 in postseason play, going 2-1 in last year's CFP. The Tigers are 27-24 in the postseason, but have lost 2 of their last 3 appearances. CU is 7-5, winning their last 4, and they were a stellar 4-1 away from Memorial Stadium in Clemson. PSU was 6-6 with their season divided in 3 segments: a 3-0 start, a 6-game losing streak that led to the firing of HC James Franklin, and a 3-0 finish to get here. These teams have met once before, in the 1988 Florida Citrus Bowl in Orlando, with the Tigers laying a 35-10 beatdown on the Lions. I daresay it will be a bit colder in the Bronx than it was in Orlando that day. Penn State wins.

UConn vs Army (Wasabi Fenway Bowl- Boston, MA)- This is one of the newer bowls, starting just in 2022, and of the 2 teams, only UConn has played here, winning 27-14 over UNC last year. The American Conference is 0-2 here, with losses by Cincinnati in 2022 and by SMU in 2023. Of course, both of those teams have since moved on to bigger and better things. The Huskies are 4-4 in bowl games, losing 3 of their last 4 (since 2010), while the Black Knights are 8-3, winning their last 2 (since 2021). Army is only 6-6 after their 1-point loss to Navy, meaning they have lost 2 of their last 3, and they are only 4-3 away from Michie Stadium in West Point. UConn is 9-3, winning their last 4, and were only 3-3 away from Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field, with all 3 losses in OT, with one of those in double OT. The Huskies currently hold a 5-4 lead in the series, winning 4 in a row from 2003-2006, and then again in 2015, with Army West Point notching wins in 1979, 2014, 2021, and 2022, the latter 2 by a combined 86-38. I'm picking the Huskies, even though they will be led by interim Gordon Sammis (Jim Mora will be taking over at Colorado State, and new HC Jason Candle- from Toledo- will not be involved).

Georgia Tech vs BYU (Pop-Tarts Bowl- Orlando, FL)- This is another one of those bowls that has been around for a long time (since 1990) and has changed names multiple times. It began as the Blockbuster Bowl (1990-1993; Remember them?), then was the Carquest Bowl (1994-1997), the MicronPC Bowl (1998), the MicronPC.com Bowl (1999-2000), the Tangerine Bowl (2001-2003, itself a revived name from an earlier bowl), the Champs Sports Bowl (2004-2011), the Russell Athletic Bowl (2012-2016; I was at the 2015 game where Baylor destroyed North Carolina 49-38, and it wasn't that close), the Camping World Bowl (2017-2019), the Cheez-It Bowl (2020-2022, and yes, there were actually 2 bowls with that name IN THE SAME YEAR), and finally reached its current name in 2023, with the winning team getting to eat a toasted "live" mascot, all on live TV! The game was originally played in Miami Gardens, but has since moved to Orlando. Georgia Tech will be making their 3rd appearance, which is tied for 6th all-time, and they are currently 2-0 here, winning in 1997 over WVU and in 2004 over Syracuse. BYU is making its 1st appearance in this bowl. The ACC is 17-13 in the many iterations of this bowl, while the Big 12 is just 6-8, but they've won their last 2 contests. The Cougars are 18-22-1 in bowl games, winning their last 2, and the Yellow Jackets are 26-21, losing 2 of their last 3 (since 2018). GT is 9-3, losing their last 2 games, and 3 of their last 4, and they are 4-2 away from Grant Field (but 4-1 away from Atlanta). BYU is 11-2, with both losses coming to Texas Tech away from Lavell Edwards Stadium, with one of those in the Big 12 CG. The Cougars lead the series 3-1, winning 3 straight (2003, 2012, and 2013) after the Jackets won the 1st meeting in 2002 in Atlanta. BYU has the better defense, and knows how to win close games. Cougars win.

Miami, Oh vs Fresno State (Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl- Tucson, AZ)- This is a relatively new bowl, as it began in 2015. Miami is 1-0 here, winning 43-17 last year over Colorado State. This will be Fresno State's 1st appearance, but the MWC is 5-5 here, while the MAC is a heady 3-1. The Redhawks are 9-7 in bowl games, but have lost 2 of their last 3, while the Bulldogs are 17-15 in bowls, winning 5 of their last 6 (since 2017). Miami is 7-6, winning their last 2, and they are 3-3 away from Yager Stadium, with 2 of those losses at Big Ten teams. FS is 8-4, winning 3 of their last 4, and are 4-2 outside of Valley Children's Stadium, with one of those at Kansas. The Bulldogs will win this 1st ever contest between the 2. 

North Texas vs San Diego State (Isleta New Mexico Bowl- Albuquerque, NM)- The 1st New Mexico Bowl was in 2008, and both UNT and SDSU have appeared there once- the Aztecs winning in 2019 and the Mean Green losing in 2018. The Mountain West Conference is 12-5 here, winning their last 5 appearances, and the American Conference is 0-2, losing in 2020 and 2022. SDSU is only 7-10 in bowls, but they've won 2 of their last 3 (since 2019), with this being their 1st bowl since 2022. UNT is an even worse 2-12, one of the worst winning percentages in FBS, as they haven't won a bowl since 2013, losing each of their last 7. However, the Mean Green is 11-2 this year, losing only to USF in the regular season, as they are 5-1 away from DATCU Stadium, with their only loss in the AC CG. The Aztecs took a huge leap in HC Sean Lewis's 2nd year, going from 3-9 to 9-3, winning 2 of their last 3, with a 3-3 record away from Snap Dragon Stadium. UNT will be led by interim HC Drew Svoboda after HC Eric Morris left for Oklahoma State, but the new HC will be former Troy and WVU HC Neal Brown. SDSU leads the series 6-1, with UNT's lone win in 1974 in a series played exclusively between 1969 and 1975. History suggests that the Aztecs will win, but I think the Mean Green has too much offensive firepower (assuming few, if any, dropouts). UNT wins.

Virginia vs Missouri (TaxSlayer Gator Bowl- Jacksonville, FL)- These teams have been playing football for well over 200 years combined, but they have only met once, 52 years ago in 1973 in Columbia, with Mizzou coming out on top on Sep 9 by a score of 31-7. This time, they'll be meeting in one of the older bowl games. The Gator Bowl has been played every year since 1946, with Missouri 1-2 and UVA 0-2. This will be Virginia's 1st appearance since 2008 (other loss in 1991), while Mizzou hasn't been here since their 1968 win over Alabama (losses were in 1949 and 1950).The Cavaliers are 8-13 in bowl games, losing 4 of their last 5, but this is their 1st bowl since the 2019 season (2021 bowl was canceled). The Tigers also have a losing record at 17-21, but they've won their last 2. Mizzou is 8-4 this season, winning 2 of their last 3, but all 4 losses were following a 5-0 start, and they are 2-2 away from Faurot Field in CoMo. The Wahoos were 10-3, winning 3 of their last 4, and were 4-1 away from Scott Stadium, including a loss to Duke in Charlotte, NC that cost them a spot in the CFP. I have no way of knowing how motivated either team will be, but I just can't imagine the Hoos are thrilled to be settling for the Gator Bowl over the CFP. The Tigers win.

LSU vs Houston (Kinder's Texas Bowl- Houston, TX)- The Texas Bowl is one of many that have started up since 2001 (21 bowls in all have been added since then), with LSU (2-1 with 2015 win vacated) making their 4th appearance and Houston (0-1) making their 2nd. The Tigers had a loss in 2022 and wins in 2015 (the vacated one) and last year, while the Cougars lost in 2007, the 2nd contest of this bowl. Big 12 teams are 8-7 here, while SEC teams are a less than stellar 4-6, with the Bayou Bengals accounting for half of those wins. LSU is 31-24-1 in bowl games, winning their last 3, and 9 of their last 12 postseason games, including the 2019 National Championship Game. In fact, they've scored 63 points twice in their last 6 postseason games. UH is 13-16-1 in bowls, winning their last 2. The Cougars improved from 4-8 in 2024 to 9-3 this year, and ended the regular season winning 2 of their last 3, and were an incredible 6-0 away from TDECU Stadium. LSU was only 7-5 this year, their worst season since 2021, and though they won 2 of their last 3 games, were only 1-4 outside of Tiger Stadium. Interim HC Frank Wilson will be coaching his last game for the Tigers, as new hC Lane Kiffin will be moving over from Ole Miss to take over after the bowl game. LSU won 2 of the 3 games that have been played between them and the Cougars, winning in 1996 and 2000, with UH besting the Tigers in 1999, but all 3 games took place in Death Valley in Baton Rouge. Cougars win in a mild upset. 

Feel free to leave a comment. Come back next week for more bowl picks!

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!