Paul's Picks 2025 Week 15
Welcome Back
Last week I had a fantastic week, as I was 54-13 (80.6%), making me 665-213 overall with a winning percentage of 75.7% (up 0.4% from last week).
This week is Championship Week, as the 9 conference championship games will be played- 4 on Friday and 5 on Saturday. Though there are 6 rematches within the 9 games, there are some fantastic matchups so...
On with the picks!
Friday, December 5
Kennesaw State @ Jacksonville State- The Gamecocks (8-4) and Owls (9-3) played on Nov 15 in Jacksonville, with JSU coming out on top by a score of 35-26. The win pulled the Gamecocks even with KSU in the series with 3 wins apiece, but JSU is now 2-1 in games played in Burgess-Snow Field at JSU Stadium. This is s return trip to the CUSA Championship Game for Jax State in just their 2nd year of eligibility, and this is obviously Kennesaw State's 1st appearance, as this is their 1st year of eligibility. The Gamecocks were able to exact revenge on WKU in the CG after losing to the Hilltoppers in their finale last year. This year, JSU is 5-0 at home while KSU is a 3-3 on the road, including 2 losses to P4 teams, making them 3-1 in CUSA. If the Owls can pull off the win, there is the slimmest of chances they could make the CFP. That may sound crazy, but hear me out, as this is what it would take: James Madison would have to lose big to 8-4 Troy, UNLV would need to lose to Boise State again, but in a close game (I think), and Duke would have to defeat Virginia. That would leave a choice between 8-5 Duke, 9-4 Troy, 8-5 Boise State, and 10-3 KSU for the final spot. It could happen! Wouldn't that be something. KSU wins the rematch in a close one.
Troy @ James Madison- These teams have met 3 times before- twice in the 1st Round of the Division I-AA Playoffs, in 1994 and 1999, with each team winning at home, and then in 2023, when The Dukes won 16-14 in Troy. JMU is 11-1, 6-0 at home, and have won 23 of their last 26 games at home. This will be their 1st appearance in the SBC Championship Game. The Trojans are 8-4, but 4-2 on the road with one of those losses at Clemson. Troy has been to 2 SBC CG's, in 2022 and 2023, winning both, but those were both at home. JMU has a chance to make the CFP if they win and Duke upsets Virginia. I'll be surprised if this game is close, as Troy lost 33-0 to a 9-3 ODU team that JMU defeated 63-27. Dukes win big.
North Texas @ Tulane- The Green Wave have won all 3 meetings with the Mean Green, in 2013, 2023, and 2024, with 2 of those in New Orleans. Tulane (10-2) will be making their 4th appearance in the American Conference Championship Game, the most of any team, but their record so far is just 1-2 (1-1 in New Orleans), as they have a win in 2022, and losses in 2023 and 2024, making this their 4th consecutive appearance. UNT will be making their 1st appearance, but they did appear in the 2017 CUSA CG, losing 41-17 to FAU. The Green Wave was 6-0 at home, including wins over P4 foes Northwestern and Duke, while the Mean Green was 5-0 on the road, so something will have to give. UNT has had an explosive offense, as they have scored 31 or more points in every game, scoring 51+ in 7 games, including their last 3, and 5 of their last 6. And their defense has been good enough, allowing more than 25 points just 3 times, 2 of those on the road, and the only blemish on their record is a 63-36 loss at home to USF. Tulane has been ok on offense, scoring between 23 and 38 points in 11 out of 12 games, with 5 games in the 20s and 6 in the 30s. Their losses were 45-10 at Ole Miss and 44-27 at UTSA. the only games where they allowed more than 32 points. The winner of this game is almost guaranteed a spot in the CFP, and I think there will be a lot of green in the stands and on the field. UNT pulls the mild upset.
UNLV @ Boise State- The Broncos have dominated this series 12-3, including wins in the last 2 Mountain West Championship Games, and then 56-31 on October 18 of this year. This will be Boise State's 9th appearance in the MWC CG, 4 more than any other team, and it will be their last, as they are leaving the conference and joining the Pac 12 next year. The Broncos are 5-3 in this game, winning in 2014, 2017, 2019, 2023 and 2024, and losing in 2018, 2020, and 2022. The Rebels are 0-2 in the MWC CG, losing to BSU each of the last 2 years, and they are 0-7 all time on the blue turf in Boise. UNLV is 10-2, and 5-1 on the road, with their only loss to Boise. Their other loss was to UNM at home in their very next game. The Broncos are just 8-4, but they are 5-1 at home, losing to Fresno State. Their other losses were all on the road: at USF, Notre Dame, and SDSU. The winner of this game has a slim chance of making the CFP, but it's highly unlikely. Despite everything, I'm going with UNLV to finally win on the Smurf Turf and claim their very first MWC Title.
Saturday, December 6
BYU vs Texas Tech (Arlington, TX) - Thanks to a 29-7 win on Nov 8, the Red Raiders now lead this series 2-1, with their other win also at home in 1940. BYU's lone win came in 2023 in Provo. Both teams are 11-1, and both will be making their 1st appearance in the Big 12 Championship Game, but the Cougars were 1-1 in WAC Championship Games, winning in 1996 and losing in 1998. I expect a much closer game than in early November, but I foresee TTU coming out on top again and keeping the Big 12 as a 1-bid league for the 2nd year in a row.
Miami, Oh vs Western Michigan (Detroit)- The Redhawks hold a 39-24-1 advantage in this series, winning the last 2 (34-21 in 2023 and 26-17 on Oct 25 at Yager Stadium in Miami, but the Broncos had an 8-game winning streak in the series (since 2006) before that loss in '23. This will be Miami's 8th appearance in the MAC Championship Game (and 3rd consecutive), which will tie them for 2nd most with Toledo, and leave them just 1 behind NIU. So far, the Redhawks are 4-3 in this game, winning in 2003, 2010, 2019, and 2023, and losing in 2004, 2007, and last year to Ohio. WMU is making their 4th appearance, winning in 2016, and dropping decisions in 1999 and 2000. Miami is 7-5, but 3 of their losses were at Wisconsin, at Rutgers, and vs UNLV at home. The other 2 losses were at Ohio and to Toledo at home. The Broncos are 8-4, with losses at Michigan State, at Illinois, the aforementioned contest at Miami, and to North Texas 33-30 at home in OT. WMU has an outstanding defense, holding UNT to their 2nd lowest point total of the year, but the lowest during regulation. The Broncos are on a 4-game winning streak, and they have held 9 of their 12 opponents to 23 points or less. WMU wins this rematch, but it should be a close, exciting game.
Georgia vs Alabama (Atlanta, GA)- To the surprise of absolutely no one, the Crimson Tide will be appearing in a league high 16th SEC Championship Game, and they are 11-4 so far, winning in 1992, 1999, 2009, 2012, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2018, 2020, 2021, and 2023. Their losses were in 1993, 1994, 1996, and 2008, so they have a 9-game winning streak in the SEC CG. They are 4-0 against UGA in this game. The Bulldogs will be making their 13th appearance, tying Florida for the second most, but they are just 5-7, winning in 2002, 2005, 2017, 2022, and 2024, with losses in 2003, 2011, 2018, 2019, 2021, and 2023. They are 5-3 against teams not named Alabama. However, UGA will be making their 5th consecutive appearance, tying Florida (1992-96) for the longest streak, but for the Dawgs, it's included in a run of 7 appearances in the last 8 years, something not even Alabama under Nick Saban did. The Tide have a large 45-26-4 lead in the series, winning 10 of the last 11, including 24-21 in Athens on Sep 27 of this year. In fact, Georgia's only win since 2007 was in the 2022 National Championship Game (2021 season), which was a rematch itself from a 41-24 loss in the 2021 SEC CG. Alabama is 10-2, with losses at FSU in their opener and to Oklahoma at home in mid-November. The Dawgs are 11-1, with only the loss to Bama, which ended a ridiculously long home winning streak. Bama needs this win more than UGA does, as the Bulldogs appear to be safely in the CFP. This will be another hard fought game that will go down to the wire, but I see the Dawgs getting a late score to win.
Indiana vs Ohio State (Indianapolis, IN)- The Buckeyes rarely lose to the Hoosiers, as they have a huge 80-12-5 lead in this series, a lead so large that it would take IU winning 68 years in a row just to tie it, meaning the earliest they could do that would be the year 2093, assuming they win this one, and assuming they play every year. The Hoosiers haven't defeated OSU since 1988, the 2nd of 2 straight wins against the Bucks, but they also had a 27-27 tie in 1990. Before that mini-run (2-1-1 in 4 years) in the late 1980s, their previous victory was in 1951, though they had another tie in 1959, this of the 0-0 variety. In fact, almost half of IU's wins came in the 1st 6 meetings, as they were 5-0-1 from 1901-1913 (with a 6-6 tie in 1902). Whew... that's a lot of history to overcome! The Buckeyes will be making their 7th appearance in the Big Ten Championship Game, the most of any team, and they've been very successful, winning in 2014, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020, with their lone loss in their 1st appearance in 2013, making them 5-1. IU will be making their very 1st appearance. Both teams are 12-0, with Indiana an offensive juggernaut, scoring 55+ 5 times, and outscoring opponents by 33.42 ppg, the best in FBS. Ohio State isn't too shabby on offense themselves, as they won games by an average of 28.42 ppg, but their strength lies on the defensive side. OSU has allowed only 2 teams to score more than 10 points- Illinois scored 16 and Penn State got 14. Furthermore, they held 9 teams under 10 points, and 5 teams to 7 or less. This is the game we've all been waiting for, even though both teams are safely in the CFP. Ohio State wins a close one.
Duke vs Virginia (Charlotte, NC)- The Cavaliers lead the series 42-34, winning 9 of the last 10 (since 2015), including 34-17 on Nov 15 in Durham. Both teams will be making their 2nd appearance in the ACC Championship Game, with the Blue Devils losing 45-7 in 2013 to FSU and the Wahoos dropping a 62-17 decision in 2019 to Clemson. Duke is only 7-5, losing to Illinois at home, at Tulane, to GT at home, at UConn, and the previously mentioned loss to UVA at home. The Hoos are 10-2 with a chance for their 1st ever 11-win season, and a win would also get them into the CFP. Their only losses were at NC State in a non-conference contest and to Wake Forest at home the week before they stomped the Blue Devils. A Duke win would almost certainly prevent any ACC team from making the CFP, though Miami could still make it in as an at-large. I see a repeat of the Nov 15 contest, with the Cavaliers coming out on top.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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