TWIF Notes 12/8/25

Welcome Back!

The season is finally over except for the shouting (so much shouting...). And the Army-Navy game. And the bowls. And the CFP. You know what? It's not even close to being over!

But even though there is still just a bit more of the college football season to go, this will end my season schedule of 4 blogs per week. 

In this column, I will take a full accounting of my preseason conference and CFP predictions, and will analyze how I did in comparison to the preseason magazines.

But don't worry; I will still do my early Bowl Picks and my pick for the Army-Navy Game later this week. As in years past, I will probably break down the bowl picks into 2 or 3 columns (since there are so many), and then do my semifinals picks and the Championship Game pick separately.

Let me start out with how my Power Rankings would have chosen the CFP. 

I also have Indiana at #1, and they would play the winner of #8 Vanderbilt and #9 Ole Miss. 

I also have Ohio State at #2, and they would play the winner of #7 Texas A&M and #10 Utah.

I also have Georgia at #3, and they would play the winner of #6 Notre Dame and #11 James Madison (#17 in my rankings, but an AQ as a conference champion).

I also have Texas Tech at #4, and they would play the winner of #5 Oregon and #12 Tulane (#22 in my rankings).

As you can see, my Power Rankings correctly picked the top 5 in order, and 9 of the 12 in the field. The CFP committee put in Miami, Alabama, and Oklahoma instead of my rankings, which have Vandy, Utah, and Notre Dame. Please remember that my Power Rankings are based on a formula, and not my personal feelings. Not bad!

Of my preseason CFP predictions, I correctly picked:

Georgia 
Ohio State

Alabama

Oregon

So I got 1/3 correct. So who did I miss on? I also picked Clemson (didn't everyone?), Kansas State, Notre Dame (just missed!), Boise State (did win their conference), Texas (along with everyone else), Penn State (ditto), Georgia Tech (were on track to win the ACC before a late season collapse), and LSU (ok, that was a bad idea...).

I also had an extensive list of 29 other teams that I thought could make it in. My stated goal was to get 6 correct from these 2 lists- half the field. So how many additional teams did I get? 

Oklahoma

Ole Miss

Indiana

Miami

Tulane

James Madison

If you combine my 2 lists, I actually got 10 correct! I missed only on Texas A&M and Texas Tech. 

As far as my conference champions go, I correctly picked:

Tulane in the American Conference

Boise State in the Mountain West Conference

Georgia in the SEC

James Madison in the Sun Belt Conference (I missed on the SBC West champion)

Athlon correctly picked 3 conference champions. Lindy's got 1 correct (but they didn't pick a winner in the SBC- just division winners, but got JMU correct). Phil Steele was correct on just 2, but did get JMU in the SBC as a division winner. 

The result is that I did the best at picking the conference winners! That's pretty cool, even if I was only 44.4% accurate. 

As far as picking the correct order in each conference, using the formula outlined in his magazine (assuming I applied it correctly), Phil Steele did the best with 308 points (like in golf, the lower the score, the better). I was next at 329 points, followed by Athlon at 338 and then Lindy's at 364. 

Athlon did the best at picking the American Conference and CUSA, Lindy's was best at choosing the MAC order, while Phil Steele was best with all the rest. The best I did was tie for 1st in the Big Ten, but evidently my strength was finishing 2nd in 5 of the 9 conferences, and being last only once (the American).

In my preseason previews, I made some statements about each conference. Let's examine how I did.

CUSA

Conference Champion: Liberty

Chances to make the playoff: There is almost no way a CUSA team can make the CFP this year. That may seem like a bold statement, but even if any team went undefeated, their strength of schedule is so weak they wouldn't make it into the CFP.

Don’t be surprised if… Jacksonville State takes a step back and finishes in 4th place or lower.

I’m not convinced… Kennesaw State will finish in last place, as I expect them to improve some, maybe even finishing in the top half of the conference. However, I don’t expect them to take as big a leap as Sam Houston did last year.

Verdict: Not bad. I was completely wrong on Liberty winning the conference (finished 4-8 overall, and 8th in CUSA), correct about them not making the CFP, off on JSU, and somewhat correct on KSU, though I didn't go far enough.

MAC

Conference Champion: Toledo

Chances to make the playoff: Slim to none. Any team would have to go undefeated, but the teams expected to win the conference have almost no chance to go undefeated. Miami plays at Wisconsin, UNLV, and at Rutgers; Toledo plays at Kentucky, at Wash State, and WKU; NIU plays at Maryland and at Miss State; BGSU plays at Cincinnati and at Louisville; Buffalo plays at Minnesota; and Ohio plays at Rutgers, West Virginia, and at Ohio State. All of the teams have at least 2 nearly guaranteed losses on their schedule, which will keep any of them from reaching the CFP.

Don’t be surprised if… the MAC wins 2 or more games against P4 teams this year.

I’m not convinced… Akron will finish in the bottom half of the conference. The Zips seem to have a little momentum on their side, and could surprise some of their fellow MAC teams this year.

Verdict: I was just a little off on this one, as Toledo finished tied for 2nd and the MAC got only 1 win against a P4 opponent, but I was right about Akron, as they finished tied for 6th, putting them in the top half.

SBC

Conference Champion: James Madison

Chances to make the playoff: Though the profile of the SBC is improving, they’re still not on the level of the American or the MWC. Therefore, it would take an undefeated champion that has a victory over a mid to high level P4 team, and both the American and the Mountain West having multiple-loss champions. So which teams might qualify? In the East Division, JMU plays at Louisville and at Liberty and hosts Washington State, Ga Southern plays at Fresno State and USC and hosts Jax State, ODU plays at Indiana and Va Tech and hosts Liberty, and App State plays at Boise State and hosts Oregon State. Any or all of those would be quality wins. In the West, Louisiana plays at Missouri, TSU is at UTSA and Arizona State, South Alabama plays Tulane and at Auburn, and Arkansas State plays at Arkansas and hosts Iowa State. Again, these would be quality wins, if they can pull them off, but my hopes aren’t high. I would say there’s about a 20% chance of a team from the SBC making the CFP.

Don’t be surprised if… Southern Miss finishes in the top 3 of the division, as they may even challenge for 1st place.

I’m not convinced… Georgia State will finish last in the East. I think Marshall may struggle with all of their portal losses and with the transition to an entirely new coaching staff. I don’t think they’ll be down forever; I just think it may take 1-3 years to get that program back to the top again.

Verdict: Meh. I correctly picked JMU to win the conference, but they were able to make the CFP with a loss (not undefeated as I thought, though it took unusual circumstances) and USM finished tied for 2nd, but GSU was the worst team in the conference.

MWC

Conference Champion: Boise State

Chances to make the playoff: With Boise State being a participant last year, I would have to say their chances of making it back are pretty good, but there will be 2 tasks they will need to accomplish. First, they will need to avoid any upsets, especially if they make it to the MWC CG. Secondly, they will need a good showing at Notre Dame on October 4. They don’t necessarily need to win, but they need to be respectable, such as avoiding a 66-20 blowout. In other words, they need to play ND close like the Broncos did in a 37-34 loss at Oregon last year. San Jose State and UNLV would also have good cases if they follow Boise’s example and play their P4 foe close; at Texas for SJSU and UCLA at home for UNLV.

Don’t be surprised if… Hawaii moves into the top half of the conference. I think they may be poised to have their 1st winning season since 2020.

I’m not convinced… UNLV drops below 4th place, as it may take a year to get cranked back up after losing their HC.

Verdict: This is a mixed bag. I was right about Boise State winning the conference, and right about what they had to do to make it back to the CFP, and I was right about Hawaii finishing in the top half (tied for 5th), and getting a winning season (8-4), but wrong about UNLV's prospects, as they finished the regular season tied for 1st place.

American Conference

Conference Champion: Tulane

Chances to make the playoff: The American Conference (TAC) is basically in a competition with the Mountain West Conference, and whichever champion is better is the likely CFP participant. Tulane has games against Duke and at Ole Miss, Army plays at Kansas State, Memphis hosts Arkansas, UTSA plays at Texas A&M, and Navy has their annual game against Notre Dame, this time in South Bend. Whoever ends up winning the conference would be bolstered by an upset of a P4 team, and any other upsets the conference as a whole can pull would help their cause.

Don’t be surprised if… if Memphis or Navy take the 2nd spot in the AC CG. Both teams have favorable schedules, and the last spot could be won when they play each other in Memphis on Thanksgiving.

I’m not convinced… Army will be able to repeat their success from last year. I expect the Black Knights to stumble 2 or 3 times in the AC this year.

Verdict: Pretty good! I got Tulane winning the conference and making the CFP, but was just off about Navy taking the 2nd spot in the CG- they finished tied for 1st but lost out on a tiebreaker (Memphis wasn't close at 4-4 and tied for 6th in the conference). Army also did not do as well as last year, as they finished 6-5 (pending the outcome of the Navy game and their bowl game) and tied with Memphis in 6th place.

Independents

Conference Champion: N/A

Chances to make the playoff: Notre Dame is likely to get in any time they can win 10 games, especially with 10 P4 opponents (other 2 are no slouches, either- Boise State and Navy were a combined 22-5 last year). There aren’t many challenges on the Irish’s schedule, as most of their foes are middle-of-the-pack or lower in their respective conferences: 2 from the SEC, 2 from the Big Ten, and 6 from the ACC. UConn would have to go undefeated, and even if they did, their schedule strength probably wouldn’t be enough to get them in unless either Boston College and Syracuse, their only two P4 opponents, make it into the ACC CG.

Don’t be surprised if… the Irish go undefeated, as there seems to be a “cupcake” or off week before every big game

I’m not convinced… UConn will be able to repeat their 9 wins from last year even though their schedule is a bit easier than last year’s.

Verdict: I was way off here, as Notre Dame did not make the CFP with 10 wins, and did not go undefeated. Also UConn did indeed repeat their 9 wins from the 2024 season.

Pac 12

Conference Champion:  Oregon State, though it would take 2 wins over the Cougars

Chances to make the playoff: Neither team has a good enough strength of schedule to get in with 2+ losses, but a win over Oregon coupled with going 10-1 or 11-0 in other games could be enough to get the Beavers in. And if the Cougars could go undefeated, that would mean wins over Washington and Ole Miss, with the latter on the road.

Don’t be surprised if… everyone mostly ignores what remains of the Pac 12.

I’m not convinced… either team will make it to a bowl this year.

Verdict: I was partially right here. OSU did not win the conference, though they tied for 1st, WSU did make a bowl games, and everyone pretty much ignored the Pac 12.

Big 12

Conference Champion: Kansas State

Chances to make the playoff: Guaranteed. The winner of the Big 12 CG is almost always going to be one of the 5 highest rated champions, and so will be awarded an automatic berth. The real question is whether the conference can get an at-large team in the CFP. Last year had so much parity at the top that it would have been impossible to sort out which of 3 remaining teams would have been most deserving, and the same thing may happen again this year.

Don’t be surprised if… BYU actually does finish in the top 3 or 4 spots. I realize a lot of people have written them off because of the QB situation, but I think they'll be fine, as they have one of the easiest schedules in the conference.

I’m not convinced… Houston will finish in the bottom 4. I expect them to be at least in the 9-12 range, and maybe even in the top half.

Verdict: Spot on! Though I missed Texas Tech as the champion, the Red Raiders did make the CFP, there were no at-large bids from the Big 12, BYU finished tied for 1st, and Houston finished tied for 4th, well above a bottom 4 standing.

ACC

Conference Champion: Clemson

Chances to make the playoff: Now that the CFP has expanded to 12 teams, an ACC champion will most likely never be left out again, especially an undefeated champion. The question is how many ACC teams will make it in? So much depends on how other teams in other conferences do, but I would think that in most years, at least 2 teams will make it in.

Don’t be surprised if… Georgia Tech finishes in the top 2 and makes the ACC Championship Game. The Yellow Jackets are a quality team that may very well go 10-2 or 11-1.

I’m not convinced… SMU will be able to repeat their success from last season. Like Indiana, I believe they’ll finish in the 5-8 range.

Verdict: Not bad. Clemson didn't sniff the championship, and the champion did not make it into the CFP (though Miami did), but GT was in the top 2 (tied for 2nd) at 9-3 overall, and though SMU did take a step back, they were tied for 2nd as well.

Big Ten

Conference Champion: Ohio State

Chances to make the playoff: Guaranteed. With the CFP at 12 teams, as many as 4 or 5 could qualify, but I think 3 or 4 is the likely number.

 

Don’t be surprised if… Oregon upsets Penn State and makes it back into the Big Ten CG.

I’m not convinced… Indiana will be able to repeat their success, as I see them dropping to the 5-8 range within the Big Ten.

Verdict: Just ok, as OSU did not win the Big Ten, and 3 teams did make it into the CFP as I predicted, and Oregon did defeat Penn State, but I was just a tad bit wrong about Indiana.

SEC

Conference Champion: Georgia

Chances to make the playoff: Guaranteed. The SEC has had a participant in each CFP, and sometimes have had 2. And with the new expanded 12-team CFP, I expect anywhere from 3-5 teams to make it in. Expect there to be a fierce battle to get into the SEC CG, possibly decided by tiebreakers.

Don’t be surprised if… LSU makes it into the SEC CG. They have a schedule made for success, but they do have Ole Miss and Alabama on the road. Win one of those, and win all the rest in the SEC and a 7-1 record could be enough to get them in.

I’m not convinced… South Carolina or Missouri will finish outside the top half. In fact, one or the other could be in the top 4 or 5.

Verdict: I started out well, picking UGA to win and the number of CFP participants, but then went off the rails about LSU and SC, though Missouri did finish in the top half, if just barely (tied for 8th).

That's it for this week! Come back Thursday for my updated early Bowl Picks!

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!