Paul's Picks- CFP Semifinals

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Welcome Back

So far in the bowls and CFP games, I am 22-22 (50%) including the Army-Navy game, making me 692-237 overall with a winning percentage of 74.5% (down another 0.3% from last week), as I will stay below 75% for the year. You should know that I often root against my picks, as I rarely go with my heart- I almost always pick the team I think will win, not the one I hope wins.

So now we are down to 4 teams, and none of them have won a national championship since 2001 (Miami). In fact, Oregon, Ole Miss and Indiana have never won an AP National Championship. In addition, only Indiana won their conference this year, and they were also the only one to even play in their CCG! However, Ole Miss claims 3 National Championships, in 1959 (10-1), 1960 (10-0-1), and 1962 (10-0), but only the 1960 season is recognized by the NCAA as a co-national championship with Minnesota. Oregon and Indiana have never been recognized as national champions, and neither school claims a title. Miami, on the other hand, has 5 national titles: 1983 (11-1), 1987 (12-0), 1989 (11-1), 1991 (12-0), and 2001 (12-0). It's possible, maybe even likely, that we'll have our 1st "new" national champion since the Florida Gators claimed their 1st title in 1996! And only Oregon has appeared before in the CFP since it started in 2014. What a crazy ending to the season this has turned out to be. I seem to remember people complaining that NIL and the transfer portal and the expanded playoff would all lead to the same results: the rich getting richer. But as I talked about years ago in this blog, the expanded playoffs would lead to more parity, as more teams would have a path to the title. And that has been borne out this year. Whether that continues, I don't know, but I like the idea of nearly every team having a chance. One final note- the Big Ten is guaranteed to have a team in the National Championship Game, as either #5 Oregon or #1 Indiana will be there.

So...on with the picks!


Thursday, January 8

10 Miami vs 6 Ole Miss (CFP Semifinal at the VRBO Fiesta Bowl- Glendale, AZ)- The Fiesta Bowl has been around since 1971, and it began as a way to provide a bowl berth for the WAC champion, who had been snubbed by bowls in previous years. Miami will be making their 5th appearance here, and they are 0-4 in this bowl, losing in 1985 (as #13 to #14 UCLA), 1987 (as #1 to #2 Penn State), 1994 (as #10 to #16 Arizona), and 2003 in 2 OT (as #1 to #2 Ohio State). Ole Miss will be making their 1st appearance in this bowl. The SEC is 2-4 (won 2 of last 3) in this bowl while the ACC is 2-1 (won last 2). After 2 CFP wins this year, the Hurricanes are 21-25 in postseason play, their wins this year breaking a 6-bowl losing streak, and the Rebels are 28-16, extending their postseason winning streak to 4. Mississippi (13-1) is 4-1 away from Vaught-Hemingway Stadium while the Canes (12-2) are 5-1 outside of Hard Rock Stadium. It's been a while since these teams have played each other, as the Rebels have wins in 1936 and 1940, with Miami getting their lone win in 1951, and all 3 games were played in Miami. I'm not really invested in who wins this game (I'll just be rooting for an exciting game), but I also think it would be hilarious if Ole Miss won it all after their HC left for LSU because he didn't feel they could, and he would have a better chance with the Tigers. The Canes had an extra day to rest and prepare, but I think the Rebels play just well enough to eke out a win.


Friday, January 9

5 Oregon vs 1 Indiana (CFP Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl- Atlanta, GA)- The Peach Bowl was established in 1968, and was a "minor" bowl for many years, as they didn't have their 1st ranked vs ranked matchup until 1979 (#19 Baylor beat #18 Clemson), and they didn't have their 1st Top Ten matchup until 2005, when #10 LSU beat #9 Miami. Oregon will be making their 1st appearance here, but Indiana is 0-2, losing to Tennessee in 1988 and to Auburn in 1990. The Big Ten is 3-8 in this bowl, and will be 4-9 when it is over, but the Pac 12 was 0-1, losing in 2016. The Ducks (13-1) are now 19-21 in postseason games, winning 4 of their last 5, and they are 6-0 outside of Autzen Stadium this season. The Hoosiers (14-0) are 5-10 in bowls, with their win last week in the Rose Bowl their 1st since a Copper Bowl win in 1991 (7 losses in a row) and are also 6-0 in away games, including a win in Eugene. Each team has 2 wins in the series, with the Quack Attack victorious in 1963 (Portland) and 1964 (Bloomington) and IU's wins in 2004 and earlier this year, both in Eugene. I'm a big fan of Dan Lanning, but I think Indy defeats UO again and chugs into the National Championship Game. Hoosiers win.


Feel free to leave a comment. Come back next week for my CFP preview and pick!


Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!      

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