2026 College Football Preview Part XIX- Mountain West Conference

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Welcome Back!

Today I continue my conference previews. These previews will attempt to predict how each conference finishes, but realize that doing so is extremely difficult, especially since no conference has a balanced schedule. Also, whatever the conferences come up with in the form of tiebreakers will make a huge difference, as all but the Sun Belt have done away with divisions. In addition, these predictions aren't my personal opinion; they are the result of the formula/model/statistical analysis/whatever. I will sometimes mention my thoughts in the narratives below the predictions. Also, the formula for my predictions here is different than for my Power Rankings. In other words, for a particular conference, one team may appear higher than another team here, but be ranked behind that same team in the PR.

The list of records for 3-years, 6-years, and 10 years are conference records only, and do not include any results for the conference championship games. You will notice that the teams haven't all played the same number of games, especially when considering they should have. This is because that teams played a varied number of games in 2020, and that sometimes games get cancelled (see Virginia in 2022, for example). In the case of teams switching conferences, I counted the record from their previous conference. Independent teams joining a conference were counted with their full record (UMass last year), but FCS teams moving up enter with 0-0 records.

In case you are interested, I get all of my information from various sources. I use the 4 main preview magazines (Phil Steele, Lindy's, Athlon, and Sporting News), but I also use many different websites, including (but not limited to): Google, Winsipedia, sports-reference.com, ESPN.com, TeamRankings.com, NCAA.com, and, of course, individual school websites.

I don't have a staff- it's just me- so all of the research is my own from these various sources (it doesn't help when they contradict each other...), so any mistakes are mine. I also don't have an editor/proofreader, so you are likely to find several (many? I hope not) typos, such as commas where periods should be (or vice versa), a misspelled or missing word, doubled words ("the the" in the middle of a sentence, for example), etc. 

Finally, feel free to leave a comment. Interacting is much of the fun! Of course, if you know me personally, feel free to just text. I'll get that a lot quicker.

So, on with the previews!


Mountain West Conference


3-Year History


UNLV 18-5/.783/1st

SJSU 11-12/.478/2nd

Hawaii 11-12/.478/2nd

Air Force 11-12/.478/2nd

New Mexico 11-12/.478/2nd

Northern Illinois 11-13/.458/6th

Wyoming 9-14/.391/7th

UTEP 6-18/.250/8th

Nevada 4-19/.174/9th

North Dakota State N/A



6-Year History


AF 24-19/.558/1st

SJSU 25-20/.556/2nd

Wyoming 18-27/.400/6th

UH 20-27/.426/4th

UNLV 23-22/.511/3rd

Nevada 15-32/.319/7th

N Mex 14-32/.304/8th

NIU 19-27/.413/5th

UTEP 13-31/.295/9th

NDSU N/A


10-Year History


AFA 43-32/.573/1st

NIU 40-38/.513/2nd

Wyoming 37-40/.481/3rd

UH 35-44/.443/4th

UNLV 34-43/.442/5th

SJSU 32-45/.416/6th

Nev 30-49/.380/7th

N Mex 22-56/.282/8th

UTEP 16-60/.211/9th

NDSU N/A


Predicted Finish:


  1. UNLV

  2. New Mexico

  3. Hawaii 

  4. North Dakota State

  5. Air Force

  6. Wyoming

  7. Nevada

  8. San Jose State

  9. Northern Illinois

  10. UTEP


Conference Champion: UNLV



Chances to make the playoff: The Mountain West Conference lost most their best teams, but most 

notably Boise State. This is illustrated quite starkly by the conference winning percentages of those left 

behind. And let's be honest, the teams they added, with the exception of NDSU, weren’t exactly lighting up their previous conferences. However, an undefeated conference champion should at least be in the conversation. For UNLV, that would mean wins over Memphis and Cal, and at North Texas and Akron. Unfortunately, those wins could be next to worthless if none of them end with a winning record (3 of them have new HCs). If UNM can run the table, that would include wins over CMU, and at Oklahoma and rival NMSU, and if the Sooners do as well as expected, that would carry a lot of weight. Overall, I think the chances are rather low, maybe 30-35%.


Don’t be surprised if… Air Force bounces back from a couple of losing seasons and gets 9 or 10 wins, which should put them in the top 3 or 4 in the MWC.


I’m not convinced… NIU or UTEP will win any conference games, except one has to win the final game of the season against each other in DeKalb, Illinois.


Make sure you come back tomorrow as I continue my previews!


Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed! 

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