2026 College Football Preview Part XX- Pac 12 and Independents

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Welcome Back!

Today I continue my conference previews. These previews will attempt to predict how each conference finishes, but realize that doing so is extremely difficult, especially since no conference has a balanced schedule. Also, whatever the conferences come up with in the form of tiebreakers will make a huge difference, as all but the Sun Belt have done away with divisions. In addition, these predictions aren't my personal opinion; they are the result of the formula/model/statistical analysis/whatever. I will sometimes mention my thoughts in the narratives below the predictions. Also, the formula for my predictions here is different than for my Power Rankings. In other words, for a particular conference, one team may appear higher than another team here, but be ranked behind that same team in the PR.

The list of records for 3-years, 6-years, and 10 years are conference records only, and do not include any results for the conference championship games. You will notice that the teams haven't all played the same number of games, especially when considering they should have. This is because that teams played a varied number of games in 2020, and that sometimes games get cancelled (see Virginia in 2022, for example). In the case of teams switching conferences, I counted the record from their previous conference. Independent teams joining a conference were counted with their full record (UMass last year), but FCS teams moving up enter with 0-0 records.

In case you are interested, I get all of my information from various sources. I use the 4 main preview magazines (Phil Steele, Lindy's, Athlon, and Sporting News), but I also use many different websites, including (but not limited to): Google, Winsipedia, sports-reference.com, ESPN.com, TeamRankings.com, NCAA.com, and, of course, individual school websites.

I don't have a staff- it's just me- so all of the research is my own from these various sources (it doesn't help when they contradict each other...), so any mistakes are mine. I also don't have an editor/proofreader, so you are likely to find several (many? I hope not) typos, such as commas where periods should be (or vice versa), a misspelled or missing word, doubled words ("the the" in the middle of a sentence, for example), etc. 

Finally, feel free to leave a comment. Interacting is much of the fun! Of course, if you know me personally, feel free to just text. I'll get that a lot quicker.

So, on with the previews!


Independents


3-Year History


Notre Dame 34-6/.850/1st

UConn 21-17/.553/2nd 


6-Year History


Notre Dame 64-14/.821/1st

UConn 28-35/.444/2nd



10-Year History


Notre Dame 101-28/.783/1st

UConn 37-74/.333/2nd 



Predicted Finish:


  1. Notre Dame

  2. UConn


Conference Champion: N/A


Chances to make the playoff: Notre Dame is likely to get in any time they can win 10 games, especially with 10 P4 opponents (other 2 are Rice and Navy). There aren’t many challenges on the Irish’s schedule, as most of their foes are middle-of-the-pack or lower in their respective conferences: 3 from the Big Ten, 1 from the Big 12, and 6 from the ACC (includes Miami and SMU, both at home). UConn would have to go undefeated, and even if they did, their schedule strength probably wouldn’t be enough to get them in unless Maryland, UNC, and Syracuse , their only three P4 opponents, make it into their respective CGs.


Don’t be surprised if… the Irish go undefeated, as almost all of their toughest games are in South Bend. The only difficult road game appears to be BYU.


I’m not convinced… UConn will be able to achieve a 3rd straight 9 win season as their schedule is a bit tougher than last year’s.



Pac 12


3-Year History


Boise State 19-4/.826/1st

Oregon State 7-5/.583/2nd

Fresno State 13-10/.565/3rd

Texas State 12-12/.500/4th

Utah State 11-12/.478/5th

Colorado State 10-13/.435/6th

San Diego State 10-13/.435/7th

Washington State 3-8/.273/8th


6-Year History


BSU 37-7/.841/1st

FSU 29-16/.644/2nd

SDSU 26-19/.578/3rd

OSU 20-17/.541/4th

USU 23-22/.511/5th

WSU 14-19/.424/6th

TSU 19-29/.396/7th

CSU 16-27/.372/8th



10-Year History


BSU 65-11/.855/1st

SDSU 47-30/.610/2nd

FSU 45-32/.584/3rd

WSU 37-32/.536/4th

USU 41-36/.532/5th

CSU 31-44/.413/6th

OSU 28-45/.384/7th

TSU 23-57/.288/8th



Predicted Finish:



  1. Boise State

  2. Fresno State

  3. San Diego State

  4. Utah State

  5. Texas State

  6. Washington State

  7. Oregon State

  8. Colorado State


Conference Champion:  Boise State


Chances to make the playoff: Boise State has the name recognition to make the CFP, especially if they can play Oregon as close as they did in 2024, when they did make the CFP. No other team really has a shot, unless the reconstituted Pac 12 can dominate in OOC competition. However, I am really curious to see how this Flex idea works out. Will it enhance or hamper teams’ chances to make the CFP? And how will that affect the CG? Could teams actually play 3 times in one season, including in back-to-back weeks?


Don’t be surprised if… Boise State turns the Pac 12 into the Broncos and the Seven Dwarfs.


I’m not convinced… Washington State and Oregon State will finish as low as my formula has them, as I think one or both should at least be in the middle of the pack.



Make sure you come back Monday as I continue my previews!


Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!  

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