2026 College Football Preview Part XVIII- Sun Belt Conference

By

Welcome Back!

Today I continue my conference previews. These previews will attempt to predict how each conference finishes, but realize that doing so is extremely difficult, especially since no conference has a balanced schedule. Also, whatever the conferences come up with in the form of tiebreakers will make a huge difference, as all but the Sun Belt have done away with divisions. In addition, these predictions aren't my personal opinion; they are the result of the formula/model/statistical analysis/whatever. I will sometimes mention my thoughts in the narratives below the predictions. Also, the formula for my predictions here is different than for my Power Rankings. In other words, for a particular conference, one team may appear higher than another team here, but be ranked behind that same team in the PR.

The list of records for 3-years, 6-years, and 10 years are conference records only, and do not include any results for the conference championship games. You will notice that the teams haven't all played the same number of games, especially when considering they should have. This is because that teams played a varied number of games in 2020, and that sometimes games get cancelled (see Virginia in 2022, for example). In the case of teams switching conferences, I counted the record from their previous conference. Independent teams joining a conference were counted with their full record (UMass last year), but FCS teams moving up enter with 0-0 records.

In case you are interested, I get all of my information from various sources. I use the 4 main preview magazines (Phil Steele, Lindy's, Athlon, and Sporting News), but I also use many different websites, including (but not limited to): Google, Winsipedia, sports-reference.com, ESPN.com, TeamRankings.com, NCAA.com, and, of course, individual school websites.

I don't have a staff- it's just me- so all of the research is my own from these various sources (it doesn't help when they contradict each other...), so any mistakes are mine. I also don't have an editor/proofreader, so you are likely to find several (many? I hope not) typos, such as commas where periods should be (or vice versa), a misspelled or missing word, doubled words ("the the" in the middle of a sentence, for example), etc. 

Finally, feel free to leave a comment. Interacting is much of the fun! Of course, if you know me personally, feel free to just text. I'll get that a lot quicker.

So, on with the previews!


Sun Belt Conference


3-Year History


JMU 19-5/.792/1st

Troy 16-8/.667/2nd

Louisiana 15-9/.625/3rd

ODU 15-9/.625/3rd

Arkansas St 14-10/.583/5th

Marshall 13-11/.542/6th

CCU 13-11/.542/6th

Ga Southern 13-11/.542/6th

South Alabama 12-12/.500/9th

App St 11-13/.458/10th

La Tech 11-13/.458/10th

Southern Miss 7-17/.292/12th

Ga State 4-20/.167/13th

ULM 4-20/.167/13th


6-Year History


JMU 25-7/.781/1st

Louisiana 34-14/.708/2nd

CCU 33-15/.688/3rd

Troy 29-18/.617/4th

Marshall 27-18/.600/5th

App St 27-21/.563/6th

ODU 22-18/.550/7th

S Ala 24-24/.500/8th

Ga Sou 22-26/.458/9th

La Tech 19-27/.413/10th

Ark St 18-30/.375/11th

Ga St 17-31/.354/12th

USM 15-31/.326/13th

ULM 9-38/.191/14th


10-Year History


App St 55-25/.688/1st

Louisiana 55-25/.688/1st

Troy 52-27/.658/3rd

Marshall 45-32/.584/4th

CCU 39-33/.542/5th

Ark St 41-39/.513/6th

La Tech 40-38/.513/6th

Ga Sou 39-41/.488/8th

ODU 34-38/.472/9th

USM 35-43/.449/10th

S Ala 32-48/.400/11th

Ga St 29-51/.363/12th

ULM 24-55/.304/13th

JMU N/A 


Predicted Finish:

East Division

  1. James Madison

  2. ODU

  3. Marshall

  4. Georgia Southern

  5. Appalachian State

  6. Coastal Carolina

  7. Georgia State

West Division

  1. Troy

  2. Louisiana

  3. Arkansas State

  4. La Tech

  5. South Alabama

  6. Southern Miss

  7. ULM

Conference Champion: James Madison


Chances to make the playoffs: James Madison made the CFP mainly because 5-loss Duke won the ACC Championship Game, and thus JMU was one of the 5 highest ranked conference champions. That scenario is not likely to happen again, as the ACC has taken steps to ensure it doesn’t. I still think every conference champion should make the CFP, especially if we expand to 24 teams, but that’s neither here nor there. The chances of an SBC team going undefeated is pretty slim. Heck, the chance of any team in any conference going unbeaten anymore is low. But if the SBC has an undefeated team, they’re not likely to have the schedule strength to get into the CFP. JMU plays Liberty and ay SDSU and UConn; ODU hosts ECU and plays at Va Tech and UConn; Troy plays Sam Houston and at Missouri and Utah State; and Louisiana hosts UAB and plays at USC and Charlotte. Any of these teams winning any or all of their games just won’t really move the needle nationally, with maybe the exception of USC in Los Angeles. What the SBC needs to do is win a large majority of games like these, to raise the profile of the conference. I would say the chances of a repeat entrant in the CFP would be slim, maybe 25%.


Don’t be surprised if… App State bounces back after a couple of subpar years. They have the schedule to challenge in the East with the toughest games at home, and the OOC schedule should prepare them well.


I’m not convinced… La Tech will finish higher than 6th in the Division, as they may have a hard time in their 1st season in the SBC. 



Make sure you come back tomorrow as I continue my previews!


Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed! 

Comments

Post a Comment

Most Popular Posts

Paul's Picks 2025 Week 11

By
Welcome Back! Last week was only slightly better than the week before (which was my worst week so far), as I was 35-17 (67.3%), making me 485-151 overall with a winning percentage of 76.3% (down 0.8% from last week).  This week we are once again at 52 games, the same as last week, but there are some big games. I'm 4-0 so far after the early games, just like last week. Let's see if I can stay above 75% for the year. So... on with the picks! Thursday, November 6 Georgia Southern @ Appalachian State - The Mountaineers hold a 21-17-1 lead in this series, winning 3 of the last 5, but the Eagles have won 4 of the last 7, and 2 of the last 3, including 29-20 last year. However, GS has only won once in Boone since 2007, and that was in 2019. In Division I-AA Quarterfinal Playoff games, each team has won once, and each was at home. In fact, the home team is 27-11-1 in this series. That's good enough for me. App State wins. UTSA @ USF - The Roadrunners own a 49-21 win in 2023 in San ...
Read more

College Football Preview Part IX

By
Welcome back! I hope you are enjoying reading this as much as I enjoy putting it together, and I hope it is part of your overall ritual for getting ready for the season.  As I said in part I, I tweaked my formula for my power rankings, and I think it will be much better this year.  So far, I have previewed #s 130-51 (see parts 1-8), so today I'll cover #s 50-41.  Let's get to it! 50 Ohio Coach: Frank Solich (14th yr, 20th overall) Best Case: 11-1 Worst Case: 8-4 Notes: OL returns 4 starters and QB Nathan Rourke (ran for a record-setting 21 TDs); 3 of the top 4 wideouts return; K and P will be very solid (combo is perhaps the best in the MAC); return game should be strong; OU hasn't won a MAC championship since 1968; offense was 9th at 39.1ppg (1st MAC- best in school history!) and 34th in ypg (2nd MAC); rushing was 16th (1st MAC) and passing was 96th (9th MAC); defense was 44th in ppg (4th MAC and 50th in ypg (5th MAC)...
Read more

Paul's Picks- Bowls Part II

By
Welcome Back! The first few bowls have been completed, and so far, I'm 3-2 (.600). Not great, but not too bad either. Fortunately, the games have been competitive so far, and I hope that continues. The CFP starts tonight, but my 2-year record of watching at least part of every bowl game will be in jeopardy, as I will be on the road for the next 2 days. That means I'll be listening to the games on Sirius XM, but probably won't get a chance to watch (unless I can get my wife to drive and let me watch on my phone!).  Bowl games are notoriously difficult to pick, as opt outs, coaching changes, and motivation (or lack thereof) can all affect the outcome. But I shall give it the old college try, and predict the winners with very little knowledge of who will or will not be playing for every team. Yay! Now... on with the picks! Friday December 20 StaffDNA Cure Bowl Ohio vs Jacksonville State (Orlando, FL) - Not surprisingly, these teams have never met on the field of play before, a...
Read more