Odds and Ends 8/26/26
Welcome Back!
On Wednesdays I have my Odds and Ends. This is where I present interesting statistics that you can't easily find elsewhere. These include:
Interconference results- which conference has the best OOC record.
Intraconference results- how do the divisions fare against each other within each conference (I'm a little sad that only the Sun Belt still has divisions).
Undefeated/Winless teams- Starting week 2, I keep a running list of undefeated and winless teams throughout the season, updated each week.
Bowl eligible/eliminated- Starting midseason, I keep a running list of teams as they reach bowl eligibility (6+ wins) or are eliminated from bowl eligibility (7+ losses).
Updates on my playoff picks- After I reveal my picks today (see below!), I will update them each week.
Since the season hasn't started yet, I will use today's Odds and Ends to present my list of Coaches On The Hot Seat, a Comparison of OOC Schedules, and my picks to make the CFB Playoff.
Coaches on the Hot Seat
These coaches need to show some definite improvement this year, or they may not be around next year, at least not in the same location. This improvement may mean winning the conference, getting to a bowl game, or even just winning a conference game or beating their rival, but progress needs to be shown. These are just simply my opinion. And no, I don't have any inside information; I'm not that connected.
Kalen DeBoer, Alabama (he's only here because he's not Nick Saban...)
Shane Beamer, South Carolina (2 losing seasons the last 3 years, 1-7 in the SEC last season)
Matt Rhule, Nebraska (2 straight seasons of 7-6 is better, but is that as good as it gets?)
Luke Fickell, Wisconsin (4-8 last year was worst record since 1-10 in 1990 under HC Barry Alvarez!)
Mike Locksley, Maryland (2 straight seasons of 4-8 follow 3 consecutive bowl seasons)
Mike Norvell, FSU (4 losing seasons in 6 years, including each of last 2)
Bill Belichick, North Carolina (will Bobby Petrino be an interim HC yet again?)
Dave Aranda, Baylor (Bears have been inconsistent in his 6 years)
Jay Sawvel, Wyoming (7 wins in 2 years follows 6 winning seasons in 8 years)
Dell McGee, Georgia State (1 win last year, 4 wins in 2 years)
Tony Sanchez, New Mexico State (7 wins in 2 years, career record of 27-57)
Derek Mason, Middle Tennessee (2 straight 3-9 seasons)
Phil Longo, Sam Houston (disastrous 1st season)
Comparison of P5 OOC Schedules
People love to make fun of the SEC's schedules, saying they never play anyone, and never go anywhere outside of their "footprint", so I started out comparing their non-conference schedule with the Big Ten 3 years ago. But then I thought, "Why not compare all of the P4 conferences?" So that is what I did! For these purposes, Notre Dame is counted as a P4 team and UConn is counted as a G6 team. Here is a chart that compares the P4 conferences:
Paul's Playoff Picks
The CFP expanded to 12 teams 2 years ago, which makes picking the 12-team field both easier and harder. Picking teams certain to get in, like Ohio State or Indiana, is the easiest it's ever been- 1 or 2 losses may not eliminate them. But picking teams to be the 5th-12 seeds? Good grief! There are so many variables that could come into play- strength of schedule, tiebreakers for conference championship games, how the committee treats CG losers, etc.- that even the great Phil Steele doesn't attempt to pick the field. Since I'm not selling magazines (or website subscriptions), it doesn't really matter if I'm right or wrong, so let's give this the ol' college try.
As a refresher, here is the setup for the CFP:
4 slots are reserved for the P4 conference champions; 7 slots are at-large (any team), but will include the highest rated G6 team regardless of if they are a conference champion. Notre Dame is also guaranteed a spot as long as they finish in the top 12 (can't be bumped by a lower rated conference champion).
The top 4 seeds get a bye for the 1st round. This year, there are again no allowances made for conference champions beyond being accepted into the field. The next 4 seeds get a home game for the 1st round, and the 9-12 seeds travel to play 4-8 (4 vs 12, 5 vs 11, etc.). Teams are not reseeded after the 1st round. After the 1st round, it plays out like any tournament- quarterfinals, semifinals, then finals, all at neutral sites (which I hope will change in future years).
So the 1st task is picking who will be P4 conference champions and get the automatic berths, and then what other teams from those conferences may get in. So I decided to take this conference by conference. But as I looked through each team who I felt had a chance, I see the potential for each of the P4 conferences to have as many as 6 teams with 10 or more wins! Obviously, they all won't (or at least I hope not) but even if each of the P4 only has 3 teams with 10+ wins, that's already more teams than spaces available in the CFP, if you include a G6 team. And don't forget about Notre Dame! So here's what I think.
In the SEC, I think several teams have a chance to make the CFP. Georgia is an obvious choice, but there are as many as 8 teams with a chance to get to 9 wins. Alabama, LSU, Texas, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and Tennessee all have potential. I can see any of this group of teams to be capable of winning anywhere from 9-11 games, mostly depending on avoiding upsets, and how they do against each other. South Carolina, Auburn, and Florida could be dark horses.
The Big Ten has much of the same problem- as many as 7 teams could win anywhere from 9-11 games (I'm not predicting any 12-0 teams), those teams being Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana, Michigan, Iowa, USC, and Penn State. Washington and Nebraska could be dark horses, as well as Minnesota or some other team.
In the ACC, most of the top teams don't play each other, more than once or twice, so once again we have the potential of having Miami, SMU, Clemson, Ga Tech, Louisville, Pitt, and Virginia getting to 9+ wins, with NC State or Va Tech being dark horses.
In the Big 12, I could see BYU, Utah, Houston, Arizona, Texas Tech, and/or TCU getting as many as 9 wins, with UCF or Arizona State being a dark horse.
In the G6, I see only about 4 or 5 teams that could get to 11 wins, but as many as 8 could get to 10 wins.
Having said all that, here is who I think makes it into this year's 12-team CFP, presented in no particular order:
Oregon
Indiana
Georgia
Notre Dame
Texas
Ohio State
Miami, FL
Texas Tech
Alabama
Navy
BYU
SMU
Some of you are probably screaming at me right now with, "what about...?" and you would probably be right. This is all just a colossal guess. So to hedge my bets a bit, here are the teams I think also have a decent chance to make it in, again in no particular order:
UTSA
Memphis
Tulane
Louisville
Clemson
Houston
Arizona
TCU
Michigan
USC
Jax State
Western Michigan
UNLV
Boise State
Fresno State
Ole Miss
Texas A&M
Oklahoma
LSU
Tennessee
James Madison
ODU
Troy
This is obviously an extensive list, because I basically listed every P4 team with a chance to get 9+ wins, and every G6 team that I think could get 10+ wins. I am 99.9% sure that I will be wrong about much of this, but I would be happy if I get at least 6 of the 12 teams right, and if all 12 come from these 2 lists.
My pick to win it all is Oregon, which would give the Big Ten 4 consecutive national championships from 4 different teams!
I'll update how my picks are doing each Wednesday throughout the season.
Feel free to leave a comment. Come back tomorrow for Paul's Picks!
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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