Paul's Picks 2026 Week Zero
Welcome Back!
College Football is back! The first games are in 2 days, and it's a rather sparse weekend, hence the "Week Zero" moniker. We have three more games this year than last year, but there are still only 8 in total.
Last year, I finished at 74.2%, a nice bounce-back from the year before. Over the last 9 years, I am a combined 5,650-2,080, which comes out to 73.1%. 2022 was my worst year over this period (70.3%), while 2019 was my best year, at 76.2%. In both 2017 and 2018, I was at 73%, and 2021 was 73.6%, while the pandemic year of 2020 saw me at what had been my previous low of 71.8%. In 2023, I was 75.2%, which was my 2nd best year, and in 2024 I was 72.5%, my 3rd lowest overall.
You should know that I only only pick who wins, not against the spread. I'm not into gambling, and I certainly wouldn't use my picks to gamble with (if you do, that's on YOU!). I don't have inside information, I don't scour injury reports, I don't have a research staff, and this isn't my full time job; it's just a hobby, but I have been following college football for over 50 years, and I've seen a lot of it.
In this space each week, I will update you on my picking percentage, and whether it went up or down from the previous week. My goal each year is to be correct 80% of the time over a full season, but I've never actually achieved that. Most years, I'm right around 73%, but my high has been just over 76%. Last year, I was 74.2% during the season, which was my 3rd best year.
I will also give you my pick for every game that will take place for the coming weekend. Most weeks, the early games will start on Thursdays; on weeks where there are earlier games, on Tuesday or Wednesday, I'll give those picks the day of the game. Like my TWIF Notes, there won't be a lot of in-depth analysis, but I hope you will find my unique takes interesting and entertaining.
Oh, and I've never actually achieved this in the past, but my goal every year is to see every team play at least once. And by that I don't mean a whole game; no one's got that amount of time. I mean at least one offensive and one defensive possession for each team. The main problem is catching the teams that only appear on CBSSN, NBCSN, or ESPN+, as I don't have access to those formats. I'll keep you updated on my progress on that front as well.
Now... on with the first picks of the 2026 season!
Saturday, August 29
North Carolina vs TCU (Dublin, Ireland)- The season starts off with an afternoon game from "across the pond". The Tar Heels have won 3 of the 4 matchups, but those came in 1940, 1994, and 1997, with 2 of those played in Chapel Hill. The Horned Frogs won last year, also in Chapel Hill, by a score of 48-14. That game, like this one, was the opener to the season. TCU has won their last 2 opening games, and 3 of their last 4, all against P4 competition. UNC has also won 3 of their last 4, with 2 of those wins (and the loss to TCU last year) against P4 opponents. TCU could be a surprise contender in the Big 12 this season, so I expect another rout. Frogs win.
San Jose State @ USC- The Spartans have never bested the Men of Troy in 6 tries between 1995 and 2023, and all meetings have taken place in the Los Angeles Coliseum. The closest contest was 34-24 in 2000, with half being decided by at least 28 points, and the other 2 by 23 and 11 (2001). SJSU has lost 2 of their last 3 openers- one to USC- while the Trojans have won 9 in a row, with their last loss in a neutral site opener in Arlington, Texas against Alabama. USC wins big.
NC State @ Virginia- The Wolfpack lead this series 38-23-1, winning the last 4 (since 2018), but the last 2 wins, in 2023 and 2025, have been by a combined 7 points. The Wahoos haven't beaten NCSU in Charlottesville since 2006, losing the last 3 in Scott Stadium, but they are coming off an 11-3 season that saw them fall just short of the ACC Championship. UVA has won their last 2 opening games, but NC State has won 8 in a row. This is one of the better games of Week Zero, and I expect another close one. I'll go with the Cavaliers to start the ACC season off right.
Jax State @ North Dakota State- JSU gets to travel to Gate City Bank Field in Fargo, ND to take on the Bison in their very 1st game as a member of the FBS, so emotions will be through the roof. The Gamecocks have won 2 of the 3 matchups, winning in the Division II Playoffs in 1977 and 1989, with NDSU winning in Frisco, Texas on Jan 9, 2016, so this will be the 1st time they meet in the regular season. JSU has won their opening game only once since moving up to FBS themselves in 2023, losing at UCF by just 7 last season. NDSU is 12-23-2 against teams that were in the FBS at the time, so they won't be intimidated. This should be an exciting game, but I'm going with the Bison to win their 1st ever FBS game.
Sacramento State @ Eastern Michigan- This is the 1st time the Hornets and Eagles have ever met, and it is both the 1st FBS game for Sac State and their 1st game in the MAC. SSU hasn't won an opener since 2023, while EMU has won 4 of their last 5 opening games, losing at Texas State last year. Eagles win in Ypsilanti.
Hawaii @ Stanford- The Cardinal lead the series 4-1, with wins in 1946 (18-7), 1950 (74-20 in the Pineapple Bowl), 1972 (39-7), and 2023 (37-24), with all games being played in Honolulu, but the Rainbow Warriors won 23-20 last year. This will be the first time the teams will meet at The Farm in Stanford. Hawaii hadn't had a winning season since 2020 until last season, and have lost 3 of their last 5 openers, all to P4 teams. Stanford also hasn't had a winning season since 2020, as their 4-8 record last year broke a string of 3-9 seasons in the previous 4 seasons, but they've won 2 of their last 4 opening games, with a win over Hawaii in 2023 (and the loss last year). I don't have a lot of confidence in the Cardinal, but the Warriors tend to struggle on the mainland. But with this being the opening game, I'm calling for the mild upset. Hawaii wins.
New Mexico State @ FSU- These teams have met only once before, with the Seminoles stomping the Aggies 36-0 in 1964. Expect a very similar result as FSU pastes NMSU once again.
Memphis @ UNLV- This will be the first time the Tigers and Rebels have ever met on the gridiron. Both teams are coming off a successful season, but Memphis is starting over with HC Charles Huff, who has been very successful within the Sun Belt Conference the last few years. UNLV has won their last 4 openers, and the Tigers have won their last 3, but 6 of those 7 combined wins were versus FCS teams. The other was a UNLV win at Houston in 2024. This is perhaps the 2nd best game of the light opening weekend, and it should be a tight contest, but I like the Rebels in this one.
Just one upset this week! But again, there are only 8 games.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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