Odds and Ends 9/30/26
Welcome Back!
Today I'll talk mostly about the out of conference results so far. I'll also continue the lists of undefeated and winless teams, as well as those with a win, but no FBS wins.
Interconference results
This year, I am using a chart, which should more clearly highlight how each conference is doing. It will be organized by their overall OOC record. Unfortunately, you may need to scroll to see the last few columns.
The SEC continues to lead in all categories, with the Big Ten in either 2nd or 3rd in each of the other categories except one: the Big Ten is the worst among the P4 against other P4 conferences.
The American has the best record overall among the G6 schools, but athe Pac 12 is the best against their fellow G6 conferences.
Intraconference results
The only conference with divisions is the Sun Belt, and they have yet to play a cross-division game.
Undefeated/Winless teams
There are now only 21 undefeated teams (15.2% of FBS teams) after the 4th week, as 13 teams suffered their 1st loss. These are listed alphabetically, with all teams 4-0 except where noted.
Alabama
BYU (3-0)
Cincinnati
Duke
Florida
Georgia
Indiana
Iowa
James Madison
Miami, Fl
Mississippi State
Nebraska
North Dakota State
Notre Dame
Pittsburgh
Texas
Texas Tech
UCLA
UMass
USF
Utah
Here are the winless teams, also listed alphabetically, and 0-4 except where noted. There are only 4 of these teams left, as 3 earned their 1st win last weekend.
Bowling Green
Charlotte
Northern Illinois
ULM
Here is how the conferences compare. The first number is the amount of undefeated teams, the 2nd the number of winless teams.
SEC- 5/0
Big Ten- 4/0
Big 12- 4/0
ACC- 3/0
Independents-1/0
Sun Belt- 1/1
American- 1/1
Mountain West- 1/1
MAC- 1/1
Pac 12- 0/0
CUSA- 0/0
Just for fun, here are the teams that have a win, but no FBS wins.
Akron
Ball State
Buffalo (2-0)
CCU
Georgia Southern
Georgia Tech
Kansas
Kennesaw State
La Tech
Missouri State
Navy
New Mexico State
ODU
Purdue
Rice
Rutgers
Sacramento State
Sam Houston
San Diego State
Southern Miss
Syracuse
Temple
UTEP
Washington State
WKU
That's 25 teams, broken down this way:
SBC- 5
CUSA- 5
MAC- 4
American- 3
Big Ten- 2
ACC- 2
Pac 12- 2
Mountain West- 1
Big 12- 1
SEC- 0
Independents- 0
This means that there are 29 teams- 21% of the 138- that still have no FBS wins.
Bowl eligible/eliminated
I will start listing these as soon as teams become bowl eligible (6 wins) or eliminated (7 losses). Look for this in October.
Paul's Playoff Picks
All of my picks are still in play (obviously), but Oregon is teetering on falling out.
As a refresher, here is the setup for the CFP:
4 slots are reserved for the P4 conference champions; 7 slots are at-large (any team), but will include the highest rated G6 team regardless of if they are a conference champion. Notre Dame is also guaranteed a spot as long as they finish in the top 12 (can't be bumped by a lower rated conference champion).
The top 4 seeds get a bye for the 1st round. This year, there are again no allowances made for conference champions beyond being accepted into the field. The next 4 seeds get a home game for the 1st round, and the 9-12 seeds travel to play 4-8 (4 vs 12, 5 vs 11, etc.). Teams are not reseeded after the 1st round. After the 1st round, it plays out like any tournament- quarterfinals, semifinals, then finals, all at neutral sites (which I hope will change in future years).
So the 1st task is picking who will be P4 conference champions and get the automatic berths, and then what other teams from those conferences may get in. So I decided to take this conference by conference. But as I looked through each team who I felt had a chance, I see the potential for each of the P4 conferences to have as many as 6 teams with 10 or more wins! Obviously, they all won't (or at least I hope not) but even if each of the P4 only has 3 teams with 10+ wins, that's already more teams than spaces available in the CFP, if you include a G6 team. And don't forget about Notre Dame! So here's what I think.
In the SEC, I think several teams have a chance to make the CFP. Georgia is an obvious choice, but there are as many as 8 teams with a chance to get to 9 wins. Alabama, LSU, Texas, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and Tennessee all have potential. I can see any of this group of teams to be capable of winning anywhere from 9-11 games, mostly depending on avoiding upsets, and how they do against each other. South Carolina, Auburn, and Florida could be dark horses.
The Big Ten has much of the same problem- as many as 7 teams could win anywhere from 9-11 games (I'm not predicting any 12-0 teams), those teams being Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana, Michigan, Iowa, USC, and Penn State. Washington and Nebraska could be dark horses, as well as Minnesota or some other team.
In the ACC, most of the top teams don't play each other, more than once or twice, so once again we have the potential of having Miami, SMU, Clemson, Ga Tech, Louisville, Pitt, and Virginia getting to 9+ wins, with NC State or Va Tech being dark horses.
In the Big 12, I could see BYU, Utah, Houston, Arizona, Texas Tech, and/or TCU getting as many as 9 wins, with UCF or Arizona State being a dark horse.
In the G6, I see only about 4 or 5 teams that could get to 11 wins, but as many as 8 could get to 10 wins.
Having said all that, here is who I think makes it into this year's 12-team CFP, presented in no particular order:
Oregon- Seems to be back on track
Indiana- Looking unstoppable
Georgia- Just keeps on keeping on
Notre Dame- May be the best team
Texas- Survived another test at Tennessee
Ohio State- One loss to a top team won't hurt, but margin for error is reduced
Miami, FL- No challenges until at least late October
Texas Tech- Undefeated, but not dominant
Alabama- Just rolling along
Navy- ELIMINATED
BYU- Another team that won't be challenged until mid-October
SMU- Loss to Louisville may eliminate them
Some of you are probably screaming at me right now with, "what about...?" and you would probably be right. This is all just a colossal guess. So to hedge my bets a bit, here are the teams I think also have a decent chance to make it in, again in no particular order. I will delete teams on this list as they become eliminated.
UTSA
Memphis
Louisville
Houston
Arizona
TCU
Michigan
USC
Boise State
Fresno State
Ole Miss
LSU
Tennessee
James Madison
This is obviously an extensive list, because I basically listed every P4 team with a chance to get 9+ wins, and every G6 team that I think could get 10+ wins. I am 99.9% sure that I will be wrong about much of this, but I would be happy if I get at least 6 of the 12 teams right, and if all 12 come from these 2 lists.
My pick to win it all was Oregon, which would give the Big Ten 4 consecutive national championships from 4 different teams!
I'll update how my picks are doing each Wednesday throughout the season.
Feel free to leave a comment. Come back tomorrow for Paul's Picks!
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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