Paul's Picks 2026 Week 1
Welcome Back!
This is always one of my favorite weeks of the year- games on 5 straight days!
Last week, I was very mediocre with a 5-3 record, a winning percentage of 62.5%. The games I missed were competitive, but losses nonetheless. Oh well, there are still many, many games to go. And this week, there are a LOT of FBS vs FCS games, which history shows us is won by FBS teams greater than 90% of the time. So I just have to do well on the other games. There are 91(!) games in total this week, which I hope is the most for any week this year, because it took me a long time to prepare for this.
So... on with the picks!
Thursday, September 3
UMass @ Rutgers- The Scarlet Knights lead the series 3-2, winning the last 3 (1976, 1978, and 2019). The 2 wins by UMass were in 1967 and 1973, and they are 1-2 in East Rutherford/Piscataway. Rutgers was not very good last year at 5-7, but the Minutemen were 0-12. This should be an easy win for the Scarlet Knights.
Bethune Cookman @ UCF- The Knights lead this series 12-5, winning the last 8 (since 1990), and are 2-0 against the Wildcats (6-6 last year) since moving up to the FBS in 1996. Four of B-C's wins came in the 1st 4 meetings, from 1981-1984, and after UCF tied the series with 4 straight wins from 1985-1988, B-C took the series lead for the last time with a win in 1989. Knights win big.
Akron @ Wake Forest- The Zips and Demon Deacons have never met before on the field of play in football. Akron was 5-7 last season, their most wins since they were 7-7 in 2017, and they could be good enough to make a bowl game this year, but Wake Forest is coming off of a 9-4 breakthrough of their own, winning 4 of their last 5 games. In addition, the Demon Deacons have won 5 straight opening games. WF wins big.
Merrimack @ Delaware- The Fightin' Blue Hens and the Warriors (4-8 last season) have never played before, so this will be their 1st meeting. Delaware had a successful transition into the FBS last year, and they should be able best a middling FCS team. Blue Hens lay it on the Warriors!
West Georgia @ Kennesaw State- The Owls and Wolves haven't met before, which isn't surprising since KSU has only had a team since 2015, beginning at the FCS level, and UWG only just moved to the FCS ranks in 2024. Owls win this intrastate contest.
UAlbany @ Buffalo- The Great Danes (2-10 last season) lead this series 8-5, winning 5 of the last 7, including the last matchup in 2016. All but the last 2 of the meetings occurred between 1978 and 1988, with the Bulls 3-4 in the games played at home. UB is looking to bounce back from a disappointing season, and that starts here. Bulls trample the Great Danes.
Arkansas Pine-Bluff @ Missouri- The Tigers will win this cat fight over the Golden Lions (3-8 last season) in this 1st ever meeting.
Colorado @ Georgia Tech- This is one of the relatively few P4 vs P4 games this weekend. This will be the 2nd ever meeting between these 2 teams, with the Yellow Jackets winning 27-20 last year in Boulder. The Buffaloes will be looking for revenge against the Jackets, but I'm not sure they have the firepower or the defense. GT wins a close one.
Eastern Illinois @ Minnesota- The Golden Gophers own a 1-0 series edge, winning 42-20 in 2014 over the Panthers (3-9 last season). Expect a similar result. Gophers win big.
Idaho @ Utah- Surprisingly, the Utes only lead this series 14-12-2, with the Vandals (4-8 last season) winning 2 of the last 3, including the most recent contest played in 1993 (28-17). The series began in 1908 with a 0-0 tie (the other tie was 21-21 in 1952), and they played 5 times between 1911 and 1922, so the rest of their matchups were between 1937 and 1964. The Utes are 10-6-1 in games played in Salt Lake City. It should be mentioned, in case you have forgotten, that Idaho was a member of the FBS until a few years ago, when they moved down to the FCS level in 2018, the first and only school so far to do so. Utah wins in HC Scalley's debut.
UAB @ Illinois- The Blazers and the Fighting Illini will be facing each other for the very first time. Illinois has won 5 straight opening games, but UAB has won their last 10 openers, but the last 9 of those were against FCS competition. The Illini win big.
Friday, September 4
San Jose State @ Eastern Michigan- These teams have met twice, both in bowl games, with the Eagles defeating the Spartans in the 1987 California Bowl and the 2022 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. In fact, those are the only 2 bowl wins in 7 tries all time for EMU. Both of these teams played last week, with the Eagles topping new FBS member Sacramento State by 11 points and the Spartans dropping a 42-26 decision to USC. I'm a big believer in EMU this season, but don't know enough about SJSU to have an inkling if they'll be improved from last year's 3-9 disaster. EMU wins at home.
Indiana State @ Purdue- The Boilermakers lead the Sycamores (3-9 last season) 7-0 in this series, winning a game in 1926, and then 6 more from 1990-2024. Only once has ISU scored more than 14 points, a 60-35 loss in 2006, and they've been shut out 3 times, including the last 2 in 2022 and 2024. PU has scored at least 38 points all but once, a 20-14 win in 2013. Purdue wins.
North Carolina A&T @ Georgia State- The Panthers and Aggies (2-10 last season) will be meeting on the gridiron for the 1st time. While GSU was one of the worst FBS teams last year at 1-11, their 1 win was a 16-point victory over an FCS team. Panthers do it again and win against an FCS foe.
UTEP @ Oklahoma- Kudos to the Sooners for not opening against an FCS team (and not playing one at all), but the Miners, at 2-10 a year ago, aren't that big of a step above. OU leads the series 5-0, with all games being played since 2000, and only once has it been played in El Paso (2012). UTEP has been shut out once, scored 7 points twice, and 13 and 14 points once each. The Sooners, on the other hand, have scored 45+ points 4 times, but were held to 24 the one time the game was not played in Norman. Oklahoma wins big.
Long Island University @ Kansas- The Jayhawks and Sharks (6-6 last season) will be meeting for the 1st time. KU destroys LIU.
Toledo @ Michigan State- The Spartans demolished the Rockets 58-0 last year in East Lansing in their only prior meeting, and the same could happen again this year. But I'm going to go out on a limb and say MSU wins by less than 50 points this year.
Miami, Fl @ Stanford- The Hurricanes destroyed the Cardinal 42-7 last season, which is the only time they have ever met. Stanford started the season last weekend and survived a big Hawaii comeback, getting the win in HC Tavita Pritchard's 1st game. This could actually be an interesting game, but I see the Canes coming out on top, especially with the Cardinal coming off a short week. Miami wins.
Fresno State @ USC- The Bulldogs won the 1st matchup between these teams, 24-7 in the 1992 Freedom Bowl, but the Trojans won the next 5, including a vacated win in 2005 and the 2013 Las Vegas Bowl. The last win was 45-17 in 2022. The Men of Troy win again.
Saturday, September 5
East Carolina @ Alabama - In the only prior meeting, the Crimson Tide eked by the Pirates 23-22 in 1998 in Birmingham. These teams were a combined 20-8 last season, each team with 4 losses, so it's not a given that this will be a rout as many might expect, as ECU suffered losses by 7 to NC State and Tulane, and had a 6-point win over Pitt in the Military Bowl. The other losses were to BYU and UTSA, and 3 of their 4 losses were on the road. This is a quality team, but they shouldn't beat Bama. This game could be close into the 2nd half, and if so, anything can happen. But I expect the Tide to pull away in the 4th quarter and win by 14 points or more.
Oregon State @ Houston- The Beavers won the first matchup, 29-20 in Portland in 1960, but the Cougars have won the last 3, 23-12 in 1961 and 19-16 in 1970, both in Houston, and 27-24 last year in Corvallis. The average margin of victory in those 4 games has been 6.5 ppg. Even though OSU had a rough season last year, and they have a new 1st-year HC in Jamarcus Shepard, I expect this to be in line with the other results. UH by 7-10 points.
Coastal Carolina @ West Virginia- Back in 2010, the Mountaineers shut out the Chanticleers 31-0 in Morgantown, so this will be their 2nd meeting. Even though CCU was a bowl team last year, they are 0-4 against P4 teams the last 4 years, with their last win over Kansas in 2021. WVU wins, but I bet the Chants score this time.
New Hampshire @ Syracuse- The Orange will get their season started off right against the Wildcats (8-5 last season), but UNH will not go down gently. Expect Syracuse to pull away late.
North Texas @ Indiana- This game features the matchup that features the greatest number of wins from the previous season, perhaps ever. I'm not going down that particular rabbit hole, but I can't imagine an opening game featuring 28 wins from the year before, especially since teams haven't played more than 12 games in a season until relatively recently, and certainly have never featured a team with 16 wins. Anyway, the teams have actually met twice, with the Mean Green winning 24-21 in 2011 in Denton, Texas, and the Hoosiers winning 49-24 in 2014 in Bloomington. UNT has a quality new HC in Neal Brown, but most of their team has moved on with former HC Eric Morris to Oklahoma State, so this is a completely new team and staff. Indiana should win this one easily.
Ohio @ Nebraska- The Bobcats and Cornhuskers will be meeting on the gridiron for the first time. Both were bowl teams last year, but Ohio is starting over with new HC John Hauser, who moved up from DC. This could be a pivotal season in Lincoln for Nebraska HC Matt Rhule, as he is only 19-19 here after 3 seasons. The Huskers win, but don't be surprised if the Bobcats take them to the wire, and maybe even pull the upset.
Lafayette @ UConn- The Leopards (8-4 last year) topped the Huskies 20-13 in their only prior meeting in 1984 in Easton, Pennsylvania. UConn gets revenge and their 1st win of the Jason Candle era.
Bryant @ Army- The Black Knights and the Bulldogs (3-9 last season) have never met before. After this one, Bryant will wish they had still never played. The Caissons go rolling along...
Tarleton State @ Bowling Green- If there is going to be an FCS win against an FBS team this year, as there is every year, this is a likely candidate. The Falcons and Texans (12-2 last season) will be meeting for the 1st time, and BGSU did lose to an FCS team back in 2022 in 7 OTs, so something similar could happen. However, I'm going the safe route and picking the Falcons to soar.
Liberty @ James Madison- The Dukes hold a 13-6 advantage over the Flames, winning 7 of the last 8, but the one loss in that stretch was in the 2014 FCS playoffs, their last when both were still in the FCS. JMU did win 31-13 last year in Lynchburg in their only meeting at the FBS level. LU is 4-6 in games played in Harrisonburg, so all is not lost, but the Dukes are coming off a CFP appearance, and should be strong despite losing HC Bob Chesney to UCLA and replacing him with former Louisiana and Florida HC Billy Napier. Liberty HC Jamey Chadwell has seen the win totals go from 13 to 8 to just 4 in the last 3 years, so he needs to get this turned around if he hopes to stay, and that needs to start with a good showing in tis game. JMU wins.
Miami, Oh @ Pittsburgh- The Panthers have won both previous contests, both played in Pittsburgh, but those took place in 1931 and 1949, so it's been a while since they played last (77 years!). The Redhawks were good enough to play in the MAC Championship Game last season, and they have a history of upsetting P4 opponents (wins in 2023 at Cincinnati and in 2022 at Northwestern), so Pitt should be wary. However, I think the Panthers get their season started right and win their 7th consecutive opening game.
Ball State @ Ohio State- Even though these teams are in the same geographical footprint, they have never played before. The Cardinals haven't had a winning season since 2020, when they were 7-1, and haven't had a winning record in a full season since they were 10-3 in 2013 under former HC Pete Lembo. The Buckeyes are one of the favorites, as they are every year, to win the Big Ten and make it into the CFP. OSU wins in a rout.
Kent State @ South Carolina- The Gamecocks crushed the Golden Flashes 77-14 in their only prior meeting in 1995. SC will win again, but I'll be surprised if the win by 63 again.
Youngstown State @ Kentucky- The Wildcats shut out the Penguins (8-5 last season) 31-0 in 2022 in the only prior meeting. UK will win this in much the same manner.
Southeast Missouri State @ Iowa State- The Cyclones blew away the Redhawks (4-8 last season) 42-10 in the only previous meeting in 2022. ISU starts the Jimmy Rogers era off with a win.
Duquesne @ Air Force- The Falcons and the Dukes (7-5 last season) have never played before. The AFA bombs the Dukes.
Rhode Island @ Temple- The Owls are 12-0 against the Rams (11-3 last season), but all of those contests occurred between 1949 and 1975, so they haven't played in 51 years. Temple wins.
Tennessee State @ Georgia- The Bulldogs and the Tigers (2-10 last season) have never met before. Dawgs win big.
Baylor vs. Auburn (Atlanta, Ga)- This series is tied at 2-2-1, and both teams are coming off a 5-7 season, but only 1-the Tigers- have a new HC. The Bears have wins in 1965 and 1976, both times in Auburn, with the Plainsmen winning in 1954 in the Gator Bowl and 38-24 last year in Waco. The tie came in 1975 in Waco as well, ending 10-10. I think the energy of a new coach and QB (and a bunch of other new players and coaches) trumps a coach on the hot seat. War Eagle wins.
Furman @ Tennessee- The Volunteers defeated the Paladins (6-6 last season) in back-to-back years in 1941 and 1942 by a combined score of 104-13, with both games, like this one, in Knoxville. The Vols will prevail again, probably by scoreing close to 52 again, which was their point total for each of the 1st 2 contests.
Texas State @ Texas- The Longhorns and Bobcats have met once before, in 1930 in Austin, with UT prevailing by a score of 36-0. TSU was then known as the Southwest Texas State Normal School. The Horns will trample the Bobcats again.
Boston College @ Cincinnati- This series, which began in 1961, is tied at 4 wins apiece. The Bearcats are 2-1 in games played in Cincinnati, and have won the 2 most recent contests, in 1997 in Chestnut Hill and in the 2020 Birmingham Bowl following the 2019 season. The Eagles were one of the worst P4 teams last season as they finished 2-10, with their only FBS win at Syracuse in the season finale. UC is coming off their 1st bowl season since 2022. Bearcats win.
Tulane @ Duke- This series is tied at 3 wins each, with the Blue devils winning in 2011, 2014, and 2015, and the Green Wave claiming victories in 1964, 1973, and 34-27 last year in New Orleans. Duke is 2-1 in this series in Wallace Wade Stadium as they've won the last 2 played there. This is another matchup that features teams with a combined 20-8 record, but this one also features 2 conference champions. New coach Will Hall has taken over at Tulane, and he was not overly successful in his 1st stint as a HC at Southern Miss from 2021-24, but he is inheriting a good team, and supposedly has learned from his experience. I think the Green Wave pull the mild upset and take the lead in the series.
Boise State @ Oregon- Surprisingly, the Broncos lead the series 3-1, winning in 2008, 2009, and in the 2017 Las Vegas Bowl, and are 1-1 in Eugene, but the Ducks won the most recent meeting, 37-34 in 2024. I don't think BSU wins, but they if they can keep it close like they did in '24, that could help them return to the CFP. The Quack Attack are my pick as National Champions, so I have to pick UO to win.
Marshall @ Penn State- The Nittany Lions own a 2-0 advantage in this series, winning 26-7 and 65-0, both in State College. But that was back in 1929 and 1930, almost a century ago. The Thundering Herd took a step back last year in HC Tony Gibson's 1st year, but should be back in a bowl this season. PSU wins to get the Matt Campbell era started with a victory.
The Citadel @ Charlotte- The Bulldogs (4-8 last season) topped the 49ers 63-56 in 2014, Charlotte's last year in the FCS ranks. Unfortunately, Charlotte's only win last year was over an FCS team, and that could be the same for this season as well, as they are unlikely to win an FBS game until November, if at all. 49ers dig up a win.
Towson @ Navy- The Midshipmen defeated the Tigers (6-6 last season) 41-13 in their only previous meeting in 2008. The score this year will closely resemble that one.
UT Rio Grande Valley @ UTSA- This will be a 1st time meeting between the Roadrunners and the Vaqueros (9-3 last season), which makes sense, as UTGRV only started playing football in 2025. UTSA wins.
Fordham @ North Dakota State- The Bison are 1-0 after defeating JSU in their 1st FBS game and should topple the Rams (1-11 last season) in their 1st ever meeting.
Maine @ Appalachian State- The Black Bears (6-6 last season) hold a 2-0 edge against the Mountaineers, with both wins coming in the Division I-AA/FCS playoffs in 2002 and 2011. App State gets their 1st win in the series.
Oklahoma State @ Tulsa- The Cowboys lead the series, begun in 1914, by a count of 44-29-5, winning 10 of the last 11 (since 1999), but the Golden Hurricane won 19-12 last season. However, the Hurricane has not won in Tulsa since 1998, but are 23-17-2 all-time at home. Interestingly, the game was played in Tulsa 11 times in a row from 1930 to 1940. This is a game OSU should win more often than not, and that has definitely been the case since 1953, as the Cowboys are 33-9-1 in the series since then. OSU wins, but don't be surprised if it's close in HC Eric Morris' 1st game at Oklahoma State.
North Alabama @ Arkansas- The Lions (2-10 last season) and the Razorbacks will be meeting for the 1st time. The Hogs will hand new HC Ryan Silverfield his 1st victory in Fayetteville.
Northern Illinois @ Iowa- The Hawkeyes hold a commanding 9-1 series lead, with the Huskies winning 30-27 in 2013 in Iowa City. Interestingly, this game has never been played in DeKalb, but has been played in Chicago twice. Doesn't really matter where this is being played, but Iowa wins. The most interesting part of this matchup is seeing if Iowa's offense is improved enough to see if they can challenge in the Big Ten.
Alcorn State @ Southern Miss- The Golden Eagles have won all 4 previous meetings against the Braves (5-7 last season), all played since 2009, and this win will make it 5 in a row, and give new HC Blake Anderson his 1st victory in Hattiesburg.
Wyoming @ Colorado State- The Rams lead this series 61-52-5, but the Cowboys have won 8 of the last 10, including 28-0 last year. Both teams are coming off disappointing seasons, with CSU breaking in new coach Jim Mora, who has been at UCLA and UConn, as well as the NFL's Atlanta Falcons and Seattle Seahawks. The Border War has been hotly contested through the years, with one team or the other dominating for 10 years or more at a time. I feel like this is getting ready to swing in the Rams' favor, as they've won 2 of the last 3 played in Fort Collins. CSU wins in a mild upset.
Norfolk State @ ODU- The Monarchs are 4-0 versus the Spartans (1-11 last season), but 2 of the wins were by a mere 3 points each. ODU wins big this time.
Missouri State @ Texas A&M- The Bears and Aggies will be meeting on the gridiron for the 1st time, with MSU probably hoping it will be for the last time. TAMU routs the Bears.
Austin Peay @ Vanderbilt- The Commodores own a 2-0 edge over the Governors (7-5 last season), winning in 2013 and 2015 by a combined score of 85-10. The 'Dores will win again, probably by a score of 42-6.
Abilene Christian @ Texas Tech- The Red Raiders lead the Wildcats (9-5 last season) 7-3 in this series, winning the last 5, but the 1st 9 meetings were between 1925 and 1949, with the most recent a 52-51 TTU victory in 2024. ACU's 3 wins were all in a row: 6-3 in 1927, 7-0 in 1928, and 7-3 in 1929. Red Raiders win, probably by more than 1 point this time.
Nicholls @ Kansas State- In their only prior meeting, the Wildcats demolished the Colonels 49-14 in 2019. This will be more of the same. KSU wins big.
Idaho State @ Utah State- The Aggies have dominated this series, leading 17-2, with the losses in 1981 and 2000, and winning the last 6. USU wins again.
Arkansas State @ Memphis- The Tigers lead this series 35-23-4, winning the last 5 (since 2013). The Red Wolves have only won once in Memphis since 1989, and that 2006 victory has since been vacated, due to using ineligible players. As long as they keep their feet on the ground after last week's win over UNLV, the Tigers should win this.
Houston Christian @ Rice- The Owls will win this 1st ever meeting against the Huskies (2-10 last season).
FIU @ USF- The Bulls have won both prior meetings with the Panthers, winning 21-20 in 2006 and 17-9 in 2008. Both teams attended a bowl last season, and both have high hopes for this season, but USF is starting over with new HC Brian Hartline after losing Alex Golesh to Auburn. A win here would be huge for FIU, and I expect them to be pretty good this year, but USF just has more talent. Bulls win, but the Panthers make them work for it.
Murray State @ Middle Tennessee- The Blue Raiders lead this series 38-30-3, winning the last 3, but they've only met once since the year 2000. The teams met yearly from 1925 through 1942, and then again from 1948 through 1998. MTSU moved up to the FBS ranks in 1999, and they have played just twice since: 2000 and 2023. The Blue Raiders take down the Racers (1-11 last season).
Eastern Kentucky @ Jacksonville State- The Gamecocks have an 11-8 edge in this series, winning 42-17 in the last meeting in 2022, but the Colonels (5-7 last season) have won 2 of the last 3 (since 2019), and the last time these teams played on Burgess-Snow Field. JSU wins.
Charleston Southern @ Georgia Southern- The Eagles will sink the Buccaneers (5-7 last season) in the first meeting of this "Southern" rivalry.
SE Louisiana @ South Alabama- The Jaguars defeated the Lions (9-4 last season) by a score of 35-17 in the only previous meeting in 2023. USA wins again.
Sam Houston @ Troy- The trojans lead the series 7-0-1, but all the meetings were between 1968 and 2000, with the 20-20 tie in the third matchup in 1970. The Bearkats had a precipitous fall to 2-10 last year after their breakthrough 10-3 in 2024, so they are looking to play the yo-yo and jump back up to a winning season, but it's a big task against a Troy team that has been to the SBC CG in 3 of the past 4 seasons, winning two. Trojans win.
Clemson @ LSU- The Tigers and the Bayou Bengals have met 5 times, but 4 of those have been in bowl/CFP games. LSU owns victories in the 1959 Sugar Bowl (7-0, 1958 season), 1996 Peach Bowl (10-7), the 2020 CFP NC game (42-25, 2019 season), and 17-10 last season in Clemson's Death Valley. CU's lone win came by a score of 25-24 in the 2012 Peach Bowl. This is the 1st meeting in LSU's Death Valley, though they've played twice in their backyard (New Orleans), and the 2 other times close to Clemson (Atlanta). Both are coming off of disappointing 7-6 seasons, and are looking to make it back to elite status, but I'm not sure either get there this year. LSU wins this Tiger fight at home.
ULM @ Mississippi State- The Bulldogs lead the series 4-1-1, with wins in 1972, 1989, 1996, and 1997, with the Warhawks getting their lone win in 1995 and the tie in 1973. All games have been played in Starkville. MSU gets the 2026 season started right with an easy win.
VMI @ Virginia Tech- The Hokies lead this series 49-25-5 over the Keydets (1-11 last season), though they haven't played since 1984. VT wins to double up VMI and get new HC James Franklin off to a rip roaring start in Blacksburg.
Western Michigan @ Michigan- These teams have played 8 times between 1917 and 2021, all in Ann Arbor, and the Wolverines have won all 8 by an average margin of victory over the Broncos of 27.75 points. That sounds about right. UM squashes WMU.
Northwestern State @ La Tech- This series started in 1907 and was last played in 2023. The Bulldogs hold a 49-17-5 lead over the Demons (1-11 last season), winning the last 2, and 19 of the last 21 (since 1971). LT wins big in this in-state contest.
FAU @ Florida- Not many teams strt the season with a tougher stretch than the Owls, as they follow this game up with American Conference favorite Navy in 2 weeks. The Gators lead the series 4-0, with all games played since 2007. I don't expect the Owls to win, but I wouldn't be surprised if the score is similar to the 20-14 contest in 2015.
Utah Tech @ BYU- The Cougars flattened the Trailblazers (2-10 last season) 52-26 in their only previous matchup. BYU wins again, probably by 4 TDs again.
Hampton @ Maryland- The Terrapins and Pirates (2-10 last season) will be meeting for the 1st time. Terps win.
South Dakota State @ Northwestern- The Wildcats defeated the Jackrabbits (9-5 last season) by a score of 38-28 way back in 1973, their only prior meeting. This is a prime opportunity for an FCS team to pull an upset, but I just can't quite go there. NU wins.
Lamar @ Louisiana- The Ragin' Cajuns have a 22-12 edge over the Cardinals (8-5 last season), winning the last 4, but they've only played once since 1989, a 40-0 Louisiana win in 2012. Cajuns win again.
Morgan State @ Arizona State- The Bears (4-8 last season) will be taking on the Sun Devils for the 1st time ever, and I expect them to get burned. ASU wins big.
Mercyhurst @ New Mexico State- The Aggies will win this 1st time meeting with the Lakers (5-7 last season).
Northern Arizona @ Arizona- The Wildcats have dominated the Lumberjacks (7-5 last season) to the tune of 17 wins to 2, but UNA did get win in 2021 over the Cats. The only other win for the Jacks was in 1932, the only time this game was played in Phoenix. All other contests have been in Tucson, with none being played in UNA's home base of Flagstaff. Arizona wins.
Portland State @ San Diego State- The Aztecs pummeled the Vikings (1-11 last season) by a score of 52-17 in 2007, the only previous matchup between these 2 teams. SDSU wins again.
UNLV @ Hawaii- This game matches 2 teams coming off a disappointing loss last week, with the winner taking a leg up on both the MWC race and on the road to a successful season. The Rainbow Warriors lead the series 19-16, and are 13-4 in Honolulu, including 3 of the last 4 (since 2016), but the Rebels have won each of the last 3 seasons, and 4 of the last 5. This should be one of the more competitive games this weekend, but I think UNLV pulls out the win in the end.
Central Michigan @ New Mexico- The Chippewas and Lobos have never met before, which I assume surprises absolutely no one. I like what Matt Drinkall accomplished at CMU last fall, but I think UNM is poised for a 2nd outstanding season in a row, and perhaps a MWC Championship Game appearance. Lobos win, but I think the Chips will be competitive, at least into the 2nd quarter and perhaps into the 2nd half.
Mississippi Valley State @ Sacramento State- The Hornets and Delta Devils (2-10 last season) are set to meet for the 1st time, as MVSU travels all the way to Gate City Bank Field. Sac State wins.
UCLA @ California- This will be the 95th meeting between these old Pac 8/10/12 foes, and it's a shame they no longer share a conference. The Bruins lead this series 57-36-1, winning 3 of the last 4, and 8 of the last 11 (since 2008), but the Golden Bears won the last matchup in 2023 by a score of 33-7. Cal has lost the last 2 played in Berkeley, but have won 8 of the last 11 played in California Memorial Stadium. A win for the Bears here would be a huge feather in the cap for the ACC, and could help raise the profile of the conference as a whole. However, this is the 1st game for both coaches at their respective school, and the 1st ever as an HC for Cal coach Tosh Lupoi. This is one of the few "coin flip" type games in the opening 2 weeks of the season (Week Zero and this one), so I'll roll the dice with the visitors. UCLA wins.
WKU @ Nevada- One of the cool things about the opening games is that you get bizarre matchups, like this one, and then you discover that they've actually played before! The Hilltoppers defeated the Wolf Pack 31-16 last year in Bowling Green, Kentucky, so this is the return visit to Mackay Stadium in Reno. Nevada has only 6 wins the last 2 seasons combined, but 9 of their 19 losses have been by 7 points or less (as were 4 of their wins). They've been close but have struggled to close out close games. WKU has won 8 or 9 games every season like clockwork, as they've done so for each of 6 of the last 7 seasons (5-7 in the weird 2020 season). Hilltoppers win.
Sunday, September 6
Washington State @ Washington- The Huskies have dominated the Apple Cup, winning 78 times to only 35 by the Cougars, with 6 ties. UW has won 13 of the last 17 (since 2009), but WSU has won 2 of the last 5, and 2 of the last 3 played in Seattle. This was the season ending game for both teams for much of its history, but it's been moved to the opening weekend for the past 2 years to preserve the rivalry since UDub left the Pac 12 for the Big Ten. Wazzu would like nothing better than to pull the upset, but they have their 3rd HC in as many years (5 if you count interims!). Huskies win.
Louisville vs. Ole Miss (Nashville, TN)- These teams have met only once before, in 2021, and it was also at a neutral site (Atlanta), with the Rebels winning 43-24. Both teams have high hopes for the season, and like it or not, the outcome of this game will affect the perceptions of oth the SEC and the ACC. The Cardinals are looking to take that next step and make the ACC CG and the CFP, while Ole Miss wants to prove that last year was no fluke. Expect both teams to be highly motivated. Ole Miss wins a close one.
Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame (Green Bay, WI)- The Fighting Irish hold a narrow 9-6-2 edge over the Badgers, winning the last 2, but those were played in 1964 and 2021. The series has been played twice in Chicago, and twice in Milwaukee, and the teams are even at 2 wins apiece at the neutral sites. UW needs wins in the worst way, but ND is one of my favorites to make the CFP. Irish win, but don't be surprised if it's close into the 2nd half.
Monday, September 7
SMU @ FSU- In their only prior meeting, the Mustangs stomped the Seminoles 42-16 in 2014 in Dallas. This one takes place in Doak S. Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, so I expect this one to be much closer. The Ponies are 14-2 in their 2 years in the ACC (20-7 overall), and during that time, the 'Noles are just 3-13, and 7-17 overall. However, FSU did start the season with a win last weekend over NMSU. SMU wins, but only by 7-10 points this time.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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