Paul's Picks 2026 Week 2
Welcome Back!
Last week, I was a fantastic 82-9, a winning percentage of 90.1%! Overall, I am 87-12, or 87.9%. There is no way I will sustain that for the year, but maybe I can stay above 75% this year. There are 86 games in total this week, just 5 less than last week, so once again, it took me a while.
As I stated in Monday's TWIF Notes, I won't be able to watch any games this weekend as I will be taking my HS band to attend Band Day at the FAU vs Navy game in Boca Raton, FL.
So... on with the picks!
Thursday, September 10
Florida A&M @ Miami, FL- The Rattlers won the 1st time these teams ever met, 16-13 in 1979 in Tallahassee, but the Hurricanes have won the 11 subsequent matchups (all in the Miami area) by an average score of 51.5-6.2, with 3 shutouts. Canes win big again.
Friday, September 11
Villanova @ Louisville- The Cardinals and Wildcats will be playing for the 1st time, and even though UL is on a very short week (they played Sunday and are playing on Friday just 5 days later), I expects a rout. Cards win.
Norfolk State @ Virginia- The Cavaliers and Spartans have never met before, but expect the Wahoos to win big, especially after a week off.
Richmond @ NC State- The Wolfpack lead the series 18-1-1, with the Siders getting a tie in 1906, and their win in 1970. They played for the 1st time in 1895, and most recently in 2013. NCSU is 13-0-1 in games played in Raleigh. NC State wins, but Richmond is a good team.
Rutgers @ Boston College- The Eagles hold a 20-7-1 lead in this series, and are 10-3-1 in Chestnut Hill, but the Scarlet Knights won the last meeting, 22-21 in 2022 in Alumni Stadium. Both teams had a disappointing opening game, and at this point, not much is expected from either team. This is a coin flip as to which team is worse. I'll go with the home team. BC wins a close one.
Missouri @ Kansas- The Tigers have a 59-54-9 edge in the series, winning the last 4 (since 2009) and 6 of the last 7 (since 2006. The teams 1st played in 1891, and were in the same conference for many years until Mizzou left the Big 12 for the SEC in 2012. Last year was the first time the teams had contested the Border War since 2011. The winner is awarded the Indian War Drum . The Jayhawks dominated this series early, winning 14 of the first 22, with 4 of those ties. Missouri wins a close one after winning by 11 last year in Columbia.
Saturday, September 12
Oregon @ Oklahoma State- These teams have only met twice before, with the Ducks winning 42-31 in the 2008 Holiday Bowl, and 69-3 in Eugene last year. I don't think the score will be that bad again, but it won't be far off. The Cowboys still don't have an offense, so they won't score more than 10-14 points, but the Quack Attack will probably score 45+ points. UO wins big again.
Howard @ Indiana- The Bison will be traveling to Memorial Stadium to face the Hoosiers for the very first time. They'll probably wish they hadn't, but will gladly cash their guarantee check. IU wins big.
Arizona State @ Texas A&M- The teams met once before, in 2015 in Houston, of all places, with the Aggies coming out on the positive end of a 38-17 score. Both teams are looking for a key non-conference win to propel them into the CFP discussion, and it would help that team if the loser also turns out to be very good. The Sun Devils crushed an FCS team last week while TAMU did the same to FBS newcomer Missouri State. Texas A&M wins at Kyle Field.
Oklahoma @ Michigan- The Sooners have a 14-6 win in the 1976 Orange Bowl, and also won 24-13 last year in Norman, so this will be the 1st time OU ever plays in The Big House. The Wolverines are 31-3 at home since the start of the 2021 season, but those 3 losses have come in the last 2 years. The Sooners seem to have found an offense, but I'm not sure what UM has after their opening game debacle against WMU, a game they didn't deserve to win. OU wins, and I don't think it will be that close.
Penn State @ Temple- This is one of the more lopsided series in CFB, as the Nittany Lions lead 40-4-1, and have never lost to the Owls in State College, though the 1 tie did occur in Happy Valley, a 7-7 affair in 1950. 3 of Temple's wins came in the 1st 4 meetings, in 1931, 1932, and 1941, but then the Nittany Lions won 38 in a row before the Owls pulled the 27-10 upset in 2015, with the last meeting in 2016. PSU wins, probably by multiple TDs, but Temple may keep it close for a half or so.
Washington State @ Kansas State- The Cougars and Wildcats have never met on the gridiron before. KSU wins this Cat fight.
East Tennessee State @ North Carolina- The Tar Heels were off last week, so they should get by the Buccaneers easily in this 1st ever matchup.
ODU @ Virginia Tech- These teams have played 7 times since 2017, with the Hokies holding a slim 4-3 edge over the Monarchs, but they are only 1-3 in Blacksburg. Both teams dominated FCS squads in the opening week, so we don't really have a good feel for either one. Surprisingly, I've been leaning toward ODU, but I think HC James Franklin won't let VT lose to a Sun Belt team, especially at home. Hokies win a close one.
Wake Forest @ Purdue- The Boilermakers lead this series 4-1, winning in 1968, 1977, 1978, and 2003, the last one in the only meeting played in Winston-Salem. The Demon Deacons got their lone win in 2002 in West Lafayette. PU is one of the worst teams in the Big Ten, and WF is at least middle-of-the-pack in the ACC. Deacons win a close one.
USF @ Army- This series is tied at 1 win apiece, with the Bulls winning in 2003 in West Point, and the Black Knights winning in 2004 in Tampa. Both are expected to finish in the top half o the American Conference, so I see them as roughly equal. Army rolls over USF.
Appalachian State @ East Carolina- The Mountaineers lead the series 23-12, winning the last 3 (2021-2024), but the Pirates have won 4 of the last 5 played in Greenville (since 1976). This is a good test for both teams, but I see ECU breaking their 3-game losing streak in the series. Pirates win.
Wofford @ Kent State- The Golden Flashes will take down the Terriers in the first meeting between these 2 teams, but it won't be easy.
WKU @ Georgia- The Bulldogs won 48-12 in 2006, the only prior time these teams have faced off. The Dawgs will knock off the Hilltoppers with a score much like the first time they met.
UT Martin @ West Virginia- The Skyhawks will be taking on the Mountaineers for the first time ever, and WVU will win in a landslide.
Colgate @ Central Michigan- The Chippewas will take down a tough Raiders team in this 1st time matchup.
Holy Cross @ Miami, Oh- The Redhawks should get by the Crusaders in this 1st ever meeting.
Stony Brook @ Ball State- The Seawolves and Cardinals have never met on a gridiron before. BSU will get its 1st win of the 2026 season.
Rice @ Notre Dame- These teams have met 5 times in 4 different decades, with the Fighting Irish winning all 5: in 1915, 1973, 1974, 1988, and 2014. The Owls have never scored more than 17 points against the Irish, and only twice has the Rice defense held ND below 48 points. The Irish win big.
Alabama @ Kentucky- The Crimson Tide have dominated this series as they have a lopsided 39-2-1 record against the Wildcats. However, both UK wins have come in Lexington, in 1922 (their 2nd meeting) and in 1997, their 33rd meeting. The Tide has won the last 8 in a row, with only 3 of those wins by closer than 28 points. Bama rolls again.
Arizona @ BYU- The Cougars have a 14-12-1 edge over the Wildcats, winning the last 5 (since 2016), and the last 3 played in Provo (since 1977). However, Arizona does have a win in the 2008 Las Vegas Bowl, and won 3 consecutive contests in Provo from 1971 to 1975. Cougars win a close one.
Utah State @ Washington- The Huskies have won all 3 previous meetings, in 1904, 1998, and 2015, but the good news for the Aggies is that they have scored more points each time they've played. The bad news is that they have only gone from zero points to 12 then to 17. UW wins in Seattle.
Mississippi State @ Minnesota- The Bulldogs and Golden Gophers will be playing for the 1st time, and I have to give the advantage to the Gophers. First, they are playing at home, and second, Minny is in the middle of the pack in the Big Ten, while MSU is firmly in the bottom quarter of the SEC. The Golden Gophers dig a hole and bury the Bulldogs.
Weber State @ Colorado- The Wildcats and Buffaloes will be meeting for the first time. The Buffs will trample the Cats.
UCF @ Pittsburgh- This is an important game for the perception of the 2 conferences they represent. The Panthers have a 2-1 lead in the series, winning in 2006 and 2019, while the Knights own a win in 2018. Pitt is 1-0 in games played against UCF in their home stadium, and will make that 2-0 after this one is complete. Panthers win a close, hard fought contest.
California @ Syracuse- The Orange own a 2-1 lead in the series, winning in Berkeley in 2024, but the other 2 meetings occurred in 1967 and 1968, with each team winning at home. Cal was the darling of preseason prognosticators, but I've never fully bought in. I'm also uncertain if Syracuse will bounce back from a horrible 2025 season. Flip a coin and go with the home team. The Orange wins.
Duke @ Illinois- The Fighting Illini have won the last 2 contests with the Blue Devils to take a 2-1 lead in the series, winning in 1965 in Champaign and by 45-19 last year in Durham. Duke's lone win came in 1958 in Durham. Illinois wins big.
Eastern Michigan @ Michigan State- The Spartans have won all 10 matchups with the Eagles, with 9 by at least 16 points, and 6 by 32+ points. The teams played twice in 1898, including the only time they've played in Ypsilanti (the very 1st contest) and again in 1899, but the other meetings were all between1996 and 2014. MSU wins.
Maryland @ UConn- The Terrapins lead the brief series 3-1, winning in 1942, 2013, and 2024, with the Huskies pulling out the win in 2012. This will be just the 2nd time these teams meet in East Hartford, with the 1st being 2013. Both teams beat up on an FCS team in Week One, so this is the first real test for either. The Huskies would like nothing better than to take down a team from the Big Ten, and they would live to get a win over a P4 team for the 2nd year in a row (beat BC last season). The last time UConn defeated a Big Ten team was 2006, when they topped Indiana 14-7 in Bloomington (Maryland was still in the ACC in 2012, and didn't join the Big Ten until 2014). Terps win. Fear the Turtle!
UTSA @ Texas State- The Bobcats and Roadrunners continue their tour of Texas with a game against each other. UTSA leads the I-35 Rivalry 5-2, played since 2012, but TSU has won each of the last 2. Both teams are expected to do well this season, and the winner would add a feather in the cap of their conference. Meep, Meep! Roadrunners run away from the Bobcats.
ULM @ UAB- The Warhawks have won 2 of the 3 contests with the Blazers, winning the 2 played in Monroe, in 1998 and 2024, but UAB won the only time this game was played in Birmingham, in 1999. This game could go either way, so give me the home team. Blazers win.
Robert Morris @ Akron- The Zips may have a tough time, but I think they will get by the Colonials in this 1st time matchup.
Central Connecticut @ Toledo- The Rockets will blast the Blue Devils in this 1st time meeting.
Sacred Heart @ UMass- The surprising Minutemen, assuming they don't have a letdown after their big win over Rutgers, should handle the Pioneers easily. I haven't written this often, but UMass wins.
Wagner @ James Madison- The Dukes will crush the Seahawks in this 1st ever meeting.
UNLV @ North Texas- The Rebels hold a 5-1 series lead, with wins from 1986-2022, but the Mean Green own a Heart of Dallas Bowl win in 2014. Each team already has a loss on this young season, but UNLV's seems less egregious. I guess. Rebels win.
UC Davis @ SMU- The Mustangs are another team coming off a very short week, having just played on Monday, but that won't stop the Ponies from trampling all over the Aggies, whom they have never played before.
Northern Colorado @ Wyoming- The Cowboys lead the series 19-5-3, winning the last 9, ranging from 1937 to 2022, as all but 2 of the meetings were between 1895 and 1949. Wyoming better get this win against the Bears, as they may not get many chances at a win this season. Cowboys lasso the Bears,
Mercyhurst @ New Mexico- The Lobos will devour the Lakers in this 1st ever meeting.
Alabama State @ Troy- The Trojans have dominated this series, winning 14 of 16 meetings, including the last 11. All the meetings have taken place between 1974 and 2017. The Hornets won't be able to sting Troy, as the Trojans will just swat them away. Troy wins.
Delaware @ Vanderbilt- These teams have never met on the field of play, but the Commodores should have no problems with the Fightin' Blue Hens. Vandy wins.
Campbell @ Florida- In what is a recurring theme, this is the first time the Fighting Camels and the Gators have ever met. UF wins.
Memphis @ Boise State- The Tigers defeated the Broncos 35-32 in their only previous meeting in 2023, but that was in Memphis, and this one is on the blue turf at Albertsons Stadium in Boise. Memphis already owns a win at UNLV, so a win here would solidify their status as the top dog (or cat, as it were) in the American, and perhaps the entire G6. But BSU is coming off of a 7-point loss to Oregon, and won't go easily, if at all. A win for the Broncos would have much the same effect. This is definitely one of the top games of the weekend, and I could make a case for both teams. I'll be rooting for the Tigers, but I think the Broncos win a close one.
Buffalo @ FIU- The Bulls have a 4-point win over an FCS win, and the Panthers have a respectable 10-point loss at USF. FIU wins to take a 1-0 lead in the series.
Jacksonville State @ Ohio- The Bobcats eked by the Gamecocks in the 2024 Cure Bowl by a score of 30-27 in their only previous meeting, and I expect this game to be just as close. JSU has a big loss to NDSU and a big win over an FCS team, while Ohio has a 28-point loss to Nebraska, though they were down only 14-13 at the half. Bobcats win again.
Gardner-Webb @ Liberty- The Flames hold a 15-9-1 lead in the series, winning the last 3 (since 2016), and have won 11 of the last 12 (since 2007). LU burns the Bulldogs.
Monmouth @ Western Michigan- The Broncos need to bounce back after their devastating loss to Michigan last week, and the Hawks are the perfect bounce-back opponent. WMU moves to 2-0 against Monmouth, having won 48-13 in 2019.
Tennessee @ Georgia Tech- These teams first met in 1902, and played 7 more times through 1911, but then didn't play again until 1946, whereupon they played every year through 1949, then again from 1954-1973. After that, they met 11 times from 1976-1987, but only once more, in 2017. The Volunteers have won the last 2 matchups in a series they lead 25-17-2, and have won 17 of the last 22 (since 1964, the year GT left the SEC and turned Independent), with one of those a 6-6 tie in 1985 (the other tie was 7-7 in 1955). Both of the most recent Yellow Jackets wins took place on Grant Field, in 1982 and 1986 (now called Bobby Dodd Stadium), as they've won 2 of the last 4 played there. This used to be a fierce rivalry, especially when Gen. Bob Neyland and Bobby Dodd were roaming the sidelines, but they've played so infrequently the last 40 years that much of that history has been forgotten. Vols win to drop the Jackets into an 0-2 hole.
Southern @ Houston- The Cougars have squashed the Jaguars by a combined score of 117-16 in their previous 2 meetings, in 2008 and 2013. UH does it again.
Towson @ South Carolina- This is the 1st time the Gamecocks and Tigers have ever met on a gridiron, and Towson will hope it's the last time they ever meet. SC wins big.
Western Carolina @ Cincinnati- The Bearcats defeated the Catamounts in their only prior meeting in 2005, but it was only by a score of 7-3. Cincy will win by more this time.
Bowling Green @ Nebraska- This is yet another contest with no history. The Cornhuskers will shuck the Falcons, grounding BGSU.
Southern Utah @ Colorado State- The Rams will rout the Thunderbirds in this 1st-time matchup.
Tulsa @ Sam Houston- The Golden Hurricane crushed the Bearkats 56-3 in their only previous contest in 2009. I think Tulsa wins, but it will be much closer than that one.
Illinois State @ Northern Illinois- The Huskies have a rather narrow 26-22-9 record over the Redbirds, but they've won the last 5 (since 1981), and 16 of the last 22 (since 1959). NIU wins.
South Alabama @ Tulane- The Jaguars won the 1st meeting, 41-39 in 2013, but the Green Wave have won the last 3, including the 2 played in Mobile. Tulane should win, but they looked rough last week at Duke. The Green Wave washes over SA.
West Georgia @ Arkansas State- The Red Wolves will commit cannibalism by devouring the Wolves in this 1st meeting between the teams.
Georgia State @ Kennesaw State- The Panthers squeezed by the Owls 24-20 in their only prior meeting, in 2018. This game should be that close again, as GSU has had a rough couple of years while KSU is coming off of a CUSA championship. Both teams destroyed an FCS team last weekend, so there isn't any way to know which is better. Hooty Hoo! Owls pull off the (mild) upset!
Middle Tennessee @ Marshall- The Thundering Herd lead the series 7-5, including 2 victories in the Division I-AA Playoffs in the 1st 2 meetings in 1992 and 1994, and also won 42-28 last year in Murfreesboro, but the Blue Raiders have won 3 of the last 5 matchups. Marshall wins.
Lindenwood @ Missouri State- The Bears topped the Lions 28-14 in their only prior meeting in 2024. Expect a similar result as Mo State gets their 1st win of the season.
San Diego State @ UCLA- The Bruins have dominated this series, begun in 1922, to the tune of 22-1-1, but the lone win from the Aztecs was in 2019 in Pasadena. The teams met every year from 1922-26, in 1933-34, and then again annually from 1984-1993. They've met 7 times since 2002, with the most recent matchup being a 35-10 UCLA win in 2023 in San Diego. The Aztecs will give them a run for their money, but the Bruins will ultimately get the win.
Western Illinois @ Wisconsin- The Badgers have won all 3 contests with the Leathernecks, all by similar scores: 31-13 in 1991, 34-10 in 2006, and 37-3 in 2014. Expect more of the same. UW wins.
Ohio State @ Texas- This is the biggest game of the weekend, as it pits 2 teams in the AP Top 10. The Buckeyes lead this brief series 3-2 on the strength of their 14-7 win in Columbus last year, but they also own wins in the CFP following the 2024 season (28-14 in the Cotton Bowl) and in Austin in 2006 (24-7). UT's 2 wins came in the 2009 Fiesta Bowl (24-21 following the 2008 season) and 25-22 in 2005 in Columbus. OSU destroyed Ball State last weekend while the Longhorns were dismantling Texas State. I expect more offensive fireworks this game rather than the 14-7 slugfest we witnessed last season, but I bet it stays in the 20s. Texas wins at home.
La Tech @ LSU- The Bayou Bengals lead the series 20-1, winning the last 17, but 16 of the 21 meetings occurred between 1901 and 1941, with the Bulldogs getting their lone win a 6-0 affair in 1904 in Ruston, the 2nd of 2 matchups that season (just a week earlier, LT had lost to the Tigers in Baton Rouge by a score of 17-0). LSU will do to the Bulldogs what they did to Clemson last week: win big.
Texas Tech @ Oregon State- The teams have played twice in Lubbock, with the Red Raiders winning both- in 1959, and 45-14 last year- so this will be the 1st time they meet in Corvallis. I think the Beavers are better than last year- they just finished playing Houston relatively close- and TTU isn't quite as good as a year ago, but I doubt OSU can make up that 31-point differential. Red Raiders win, but it will be closer.
Iowa State @ Iowa- The Hawkeyes lead the series 46-25, but the Cyclones have claimed the Cy-Hawk Trophy each of the last 2 years, and 3 of the last 4. In addition, ISU has won the last 2 times this game has been played in Iowa City. Iowa may finally have an offense, but we'll see if they can show it against the Cyclones. Hawkeyes win a close, low-scoring contest.
Georgia Southern @ Clemson- The Tigers pummeled the Eagles 38-7 in the only previous meeting in 2018, but these Tigers are not the same as those Tigers. If GS was in its heyday, I might pick them, but this is a challenge Clemson can handle. Tigers earn their 1st win of the season.
Navy @ FAU- The Naval Academy has won all three matchups with the Owls, in 2012, 2017, and 42-32 last year in Annapolis, but this is the 1st time they will play in Boca Raton (2017 was in Ft. Lauderdale). I will be attending this game, and it will be the first time I've ever seen the Midshipmen play in person. Navy wins big.
Fordham @ Coastal Carolina- The Chanticleers and Rams will be playing for the 1st time. CCU wins.
Charlotte @ Ole Miss- In yet another 1st time matchup, the Rebels will destroy the 49ers.
Southern Miss @ Auburn- The Tigers lead the series 18-5, and have won the last 4 (since 1992), but they last played in 2018. The Golden Eagles got their 5 wins in 1947 (2nd meeting), 1965, 1977, 1990, and 1991, as the teams have never met in Hattiesburg, or anywhere else in Mississippi, for that matter. The Plainsmen win.
Prairie View A&M @ Baylor- The Bears and Panthers will be meeting for the 1st time, and Baylor will get their 1st win of the '26 season.
Grambling @ TCU- The Horned Frogs shut out the Tigers 56-0 in their only previous contest in 2012, and the result this time will be about the same. TCU wins big.
Cal Poly @ San Jose State- The Spartans lead the Mustangs 13-4 in this series, but only the last 4 contests have been played since 1958, all in this century, and all victories by SJSU. Spartans win again.
Texas Southern @ UTEP- The Miners are 3-0 against the Tigers, with wins in 2001, 2005, and 2007 by a combined score of 149-18. This will be more of the same. UTEP wins.
North Dakota State @ Air Force- The Bison get their first "real" test as an FBS member as they finally face an established team- JSU is only in its 4th year in the FBS, and Fordham is an FCS member, whereas the Air Force Academy has been playing Division I football since 1957, almost 70 years. This is also the first Mountain West Conference game for NDSU, and their 1st road game of the season. I'm not sure the Bison have ever seen an offense quite like AF's, so I expect the Falcons to soar to victory in this 1st ever meeting.
Arkansas @ Utah- The Razorbacks and Utes will be meeting on the gridiron for the first time, and both teams have a new coach. However, Utah was 11-2 a season ago while the Hogs were just 2-10. Utah wins at home.
Sacramento State @ Fresno State- The Bulldogs are 5-0 against the Hornets (since 1972), but the last 2 games, in 2019 and 2024, were relatively competitive. Sac State has looked OK in their 1st 2 games at the FBS level, but FS is quite a step up from Eastern Michigan and Mississippi Valley State. Bulldogs win big.
Montana State @ Nevada- The Wolf Pack lead this series 12-6, winning the last 4, but they last played in 1996, 30 years ago. The Bobcats have only won twice in Reno, and while they are a good FCS team, Nevada is finally acting like an FBS team on the rise. The Wolf Pack wins.
Louisiana @ USC- The Ragin' Cajuns are traveling to the LA Coliseum for the 1st time ever, and I hope they get paid well to be the sacrificial lambs they are. Trojans win in a rout.
New Mexico State @ Hawaii- The Rainbow Warriors have dominated this series, leading 11-1, but the Aggies got their lone win in 2022, though that one was in Las Cruces. I expect Hawaii to be a bowl team again, but I'm not sure what we'll get from NMSU. UH wins, but I wouldn't be surprised if it went the other way.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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