TWIF Notes 9/28/26

Welcome Back!

What another fantastic weekend of games! With intra-conference play beginning in earnest, there are a few more surprises, and games tend to be more competitive. That also makes predicting the winners more difficult (check back on how I did on Thursday.

In the news that I know all of you are waiting for breathlessly, I have now seen 97 of the 138 FBS teams (or 70%) either live or on TV. When I say"seen" that means I have watched that team for at least one offensive and one defensive possession. I have seen all of the SEC teams, 15 of 18 in the Big Ten, 15 of 17 in the ACC, 11 of 16 in the Big 12, 1 of 2 Independents, 11 of 14 in the American Conference, all of the Pac 12, 5 of 10 in the Mountain West, only 6 of 14 in the Sun Belt, 8 of 13 in the MAC, and only 3 of 10 in CUSA. My goal is to wath every teams at least once, but that's difficult because: 1) I don't have ESPN+ or Unlimited, or whatever they call it, which means I can't watch games on CW anymore, 2) I don't have CBSSN, 3) I'm not switching feeds during the Georgia games, and 4) I'm not staying up late to watch games. In addition, I am often at a HS football game on Friday nights, so I don't get to watch those very often. And finally, I do have a life (and a job) outside of football. While I enjoy watching the games, I do get tired and want to do other things sometimes.

Here are my thoughts from Week 4.

1. I'm not sure any G6 team can make it through the season unscathed, and I don't see a lot of difference between the top teams of the various conferences. The only remaining unbeaten G6 teams are USF in the American, NDSU in the MWC, JMU in the SBC, and UMass (of all teams!) in the MAC. Teams in the Pac 12 and CUSA all have at least 1 loss. Of course, it's not required that a team be undefeated to make it into the CFP, but it sure helps, especially if any want to get an at-large berth, which is a long shot every year. It's why if/when the CFP expands to 24 teams, I think it should include every conference champion as the only way to truly open the tournament to every team. 

2. I admit it; I bought into the hype concerning Navy, believing they might be the best G6 team. At 1-2 with losses to FAU (38-30) and UAB (24-20), they are a far cry from even making a bowl game, and at 0-2 in the American Conference, are a long shot at best to even make the CG. 

3, Northwestern gave Indiana all it could handle, and almost more. However, their onside attempt failed even though the opportunity was there as the ball bounced around for several seconds before a Hoosier recovered it. I'm not sure we can glean a lot from Indiana's 29-23 win except that the Wildcats may be better than expected, and that the Hoosiers are going to get everyone's best shot- no one is overlooking little ol' Indy anymore. 

4. Clemson isn't done yet, as they are now 2-0 in the ACC after beating Cal 24-10 in Berkeley Friday night. All they have to do is win the conference and their participation in the CFP is guaranteed. However, Miami comes to Death Valley this Saturday, in what could be the 1st of 2 matchups this season. Even if the Tigers lose, there is no one else on their schedule that scares anyone, but of course that's no guarantee Clemson will run the table.

5. Texas just may be the real deal this year. The Longhorns went into Neyland Stadium and downed the Tennessee Volunteers 20-17, so 2 of their 4 victories are over ranked teams, and the other 2 wins are against top G6 teams Texas State and UTSA. After an off week, the Horns take on Oklahoma in Dallas, followed by home games against Florida, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State. If they win the SEC, they will have definitely earned it.

6. Ohio State crushed Illinois 42-19, but now they must travel to Kinnick Stadium to take on upstart Iowa, fresh off a come from behind, last-second 20-19 win over Michigan in The Big House. The Big Ten race is going to be fun, as Oregon, Indiana, and the Buckeyes look to be in a 3-way battle to win the conference. All 3 (and maybe 1 or 2 others) will probably make the CFP for a 3rd year in a row together. 

7. The rest of the Big Ten all seems to be about the same, except for Maryland, Rutgers, Purdue, and Michigan State, who all appear to be battling to stay out of last place. USC, Michigan, Penn State, Washington, Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, Illinois, Wisconsin, Northwestern, and UCLA will all be fighting for 4th place, and any of these could get there. The early favorites are UCLA and Iowa, but any of the others could make a run, even Nebraska or Wisconsin.

8. The ACC is another conference that looks like a lot of fun! It seems that any team could beat any other team at any time. The only team that might be immune is Miami, who appears to be head-and-shoulders above the rest, but that could change. 11 of the 17 teams already have a conference loss, leaving just 6 with unblemished ACC records just 1 or 2 games into the ACC schedule. 

9. Toledo demolished San Diego State 41-16, and now has wins over teas from the Pac 12 and the American Conference, which are thought to be the best 2 G6 leagues. Their only loss is by 10 points in their opener to Big Ten member Michigan State. The Rockets have a good chance to make the CFP if they can go 8-0 in the MAC starting with a game at woeful Ball State this Saturday.

10. Good grief but Maryland is bad...

11. Georgia State is 3-1 after blasting Northern Illinois 35-14, their best start since they began the 2023 season 4-0 on their way to a 7-6 finish. The only loss for the Panthers this season is by 14 points at Big 12 member UCF. We'll know more about GSU after ODU comes to Atlanta this weekend.

12. Georgia demolished Oklahoma 41-13, but it was a strange game. If you just looked at the stats, you would think it was a close game. But it's hard to lose when you have a 4-1 turnover advantage, and the Dawgs didn't lose. The Bulldogs have a 41.5 ppg differential, the highest in CFB, but that is bound to come down further as the SEC part of the schedule heats up. I'm worried about games at Alabama and Ole Miss, and the annual contest with Florida, but at least that one is in Atlanta this year.

13. Speaking of the Gators, they looked awfully good against Ole Miss, almost doubling up in a 52-28 win in The Swamp. But they get Texas coming to town in 3 weeks after a visit to Mizzou and hosting South Carolina. 

14. Boise State may have claimed the early favorite role for the G6 CFP slot with their 32-7 domination of Western Michigan, but they could be hurt by their poor strength of schedule. Only Fresno State and Oregon State may be good enough to give them a challenge, but only the contest against the Bulldogs is on the road.

15. Wisconsin and Minnesota upended the Big Ten standings some what with their respective wins over Penn State (24-20) and Washington (27-24). The Badgers came back from 17-0 and 24-10 deficits, scoring 2 TDs in the last 3:31 to complete the comeback, while the Golden Gophers held off a Huskies comeback attempt. Coupled with Iowa's upset of Michigan and Nebraska's demolition of Michigan State, the Big Ten got a little topsy-turvy this past weekend.

16. Cincinnati prevailed 31-26 in a battle of unbeatens with Kansas State, so the Bearcats may be a surprise team in the Big 12. But I doubt that will happen, as they play ALL of the top teams in the conference: at Arizona, Texas Tech, Utah, at Houston, and at BYU. Yikes!

17. LSU stomped Texas A&M 35-6, and at 2-2 overall and 0-2 in the SEC, the Aggies may be toast. The Bayou Bengals, on the other hand, bounced back nicely fro last week's loss to Ole Miss, and with an FCS team on deck, should be 4-1 when they go on the road again at Kentucky.

18. Oregon lost their starting QB, Dante Moore, due to a dirty hit (that player has been suspended by USC for 1 game), but QB Dylan Raiola stepped right in and completed the 41-27 victory over the Trojans in Los Angeles. The Ducks are still alive, and get an off week before hosting former Pac 12 mate UCLA, and then upstart Nebraska.

19. Mississippi State may be legit after getting past Missouri 41-31. The Bulldogs are 4-0 overall and 2-0 in the SEC, but host Alabama next. The rest of the schedule isn't much easier as they still have games on the road at LSU, Texas, and Ole Miss.

20. SMU may be way overrated, as they have been simply underwhelming in wins over FSU (27-24) and Missouri State (34-24) by a combined 13 points. They should get past Boston College this weekend, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's closer than expected yet again. 

21. UMass is now 4-0! Let me say that again... the Minutemen are 4-0! Not only that, but they have a 1-0 record in the MAC plus a win over a Big Ten team in Rutgers. The caveats? Two of their wins are over FCS teams, and Rutgers and Sacramento State may be the worst teams in their respective conferences, though both were on the road. Still, considering UMass was 0-12 last year, and has just 7 combined wins over the last 5 years, this is a huge accomplishment in HC Joe Harasymiak's 2nd year. Eastern Michigan is next, followed by Miami, with both at home. Could the Minutemen make it to 7 wins and a bowl berth (only 1 FCS win counts). 

22. Georgia Tech is another team that is falling far short of expectations, as the Yellow Jackets are now 1-3 heading into their off week after a 34-27 loss at Stanford. GT's only win is against FCS Mercer, and their next 2 games are versus Duke at home and at Va Tech. It could be late October before the Jackets get their 1st FBS win.

23. 129 of 138 teams played this past weekend, 3 fewer than last week. These are the teams that were off: BYU, Memphis, Arizona State, North Carolina, North Dakota State, Kansas, La Tech, Syracuse, and San Jose State.

That's it for this week! Come back tomorrow for my updated Power Rankings!

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!