TWIF Notes 9/7/26

Welcome Back!

Happy Labor Day!

What a fun Week 1! As I stated earlier, my goal is to watch every team for at least one offensive and one defensive drive this season- no way I could watch every team for a whole game. So far, I have seen 66 of the 138 FBS teams play (47.8%), with 39 of the 68 P4 teams (57.4%) and 27 of the 70 G6 teams (38.6%). Add tonight's game and I'll be at 68 of 138 (49.3%) and 41 of 68 P4 (60.3%). That's not bad for the 1st 2 weekends. I won't watch much this coming weekend, as I will be attending the Navy at FAU game on Saturday for FAU Band Day. 

Here are my thoughts from Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. And don't forget: there's a game tonight!

1. UMass ended a 16-game losing streak, and they did it by dominating what was thought to be a pretty decent Rutgers team. So now we wonder: are the Minutemen that good, or are the Scarlet Knights that bad? My guess is it's a little of both. UMass plays 2 FCS teams and then at Sac State, so they could be 4-0 when Eastern Michigan visits on October 3. Rutgers, on the other hand, plays at Boston College on Friday, then hosts USC and an FCS team, so at best they could be 2-2 when Indiana comes to town that same date. Yikes!

2. Kennesaw State demolished FCS West Georgia by a score of 47-0, and most people would look at that and yawn, but the result makes me feel like the Owls won't follow the Sam Houston path of the last 2 years: 10-3 in 2024, then 2-10 last season. It is so difficult in this age of NIL and yearly transfers for G6 programs to develop any sort of consistency from year to year, but a few- Boise State, James Madison, and Tulane, for example- have been able to do so. I think KSU may be able to join that group if they can sustain this success. But that's a big if, especially for such a young program.

3. Georgia Tech was one of my picks to make the CFP last year, and I even thought before the season started that they would beat my beloved Dawgs, but they collapsed down the stretch, losing 4 of their last 5 (including to UGA) after starting the season 8-0. I have much lower expectations for this year, and it seems they just might achieve those, following their loss to Colorado. It's also possible the Buffaloes could be much improved, and perhaps bounce back to the 8 or 9 win range, but I'm in wait and see mode on the Buffs. 

4. The Friday night games were all routs, except for San Jose State getting by Eastern Michigan 27-21 in Ypsilanti and Michigan State surviving their tilt with Toledo in East Lansing by a score of 30-20. I didn't get to watch much, as I had to be at my high school's football game (I'm the Band Director), but I was able to catch a little of the late night action when I got home. 

5. West Virginia struggled to get by Coastal Carolina, winning 31-24. This was much closer than anyone anticipated, and may indicate the Mountaineers will have a long season and/or the Chanticleers are much better than expected in HC Ryan Beard's 1st year. Or it could mean neither of those, and just be one of those weird results that we always get in the 1st week of the season.

6. Nebraska defeated Ohio by 28 points, but the lead was only 14-13 at the half. The MAC played the Big Ten tough this weekend, with very little to show for it. More on that later.

7. The FCS got 3 wins this weekend, with Tarleton State, who's now defeated an FBS team for 2 seasons in a row, winning 20-13 over Bowling Green. The other wins were by The Citadel 43-41 in 3 OTs over Charlotte, and Idaho State besting Utah State by a score of 29-17. While none of these are an overwhelming surprise, it is a disappointing result for HC's Tim Albin of Charlotte,  Bronco Mendenhall of USU, and Eddie George of BGSU, each in their 2nd year after miserable 1st seasons. The 49ers, Aggies, and Falcons have a lot of work to do to get things turned around.

8. James Madison eked by Liberty 20-13 in a battle of the expected top teams from the Sun Belt and CUSA. This could be important when it comes time to pick the G6 representative for the CFP. I still think that if the CFP expands to 24, they should include the 10 conference champions, which leaves 14 at-large teams, which is more than double the 6 at-large bids available now, and ensures that EVERY team has access to the CFP through winning a conference championship.

9. There is dominance, and then there is what took place in Sanford Stadium in Athens, Georgia. The UGA Bulldogs completely crushed the Tennessee State Tigers, allowing just 109 total yards while rolling up 660 total yards of their own. TSU played as well as they could, winning the time of possession battle (31:33-28:27), and committing only 1 penalty with no turnovers. As the game went on, I was reminded of the annual G-Day Game at the end of Spring practice, where by the 4th quarter, I'm seeing players on the field I had never heard of. RB Nate Frazier carried the ball 4 times for 72 yards and 3 TDs, and QB Gunner Stockton was 15-16 for 202 yards and another 3 TDs in less than a half of play. That was about as efficient as they could be as the Dawgs led 28-0 at the end of the 1st quarter, and 35-3 at the half. The only negative for the Bulldogs was a botched FG try in the 2nd quarter, and quite a number of penalties.

10. Auburn survived Baylor 17-16 as the Bears came up just short of converting a 2-point conversion that would have (probably) won the game (there were just 9 seconds remaining on the clock). It's a good start for the Tigers, but leaves Baylor HC Dave Aranda on one of the hottest coaching seats in CFB.

11. Boise State gave Oregon all it could handle for the 2nd time in 3 years. The Ducks are my favorite to win it all this year (and the favorite of many others), but they'll need to navigate a tough schedule to get there. This result should keep the Broncos in the G6 conversation, especially if they can get by Memphis this weekend.

12. Speaking of the Tigers, HC Charles Huff's squad is one of the few teams that are already 2-0, with wins over fellow G6 competitors UNLV and Arkansas State. A win over Boise State this weekend would vault Memphis into the favorite role for the G6 spot in the CFP.

13. Tulsa blunted the "Great Comeback Story" of Oklahoma State as they flattened the Cowboys by a score of 24-10. This marks the first back-to-back wins for the Golden Hurricane over OSU since Tulsa won 3 in a row from 1950-52. 

14. Colorado State rolled over Wyoming 35-13 to claim the Bronze Boot in the Border War in HC Jim Mora's 1st game in Fort Collins. The Rams may be improved, but I'm not sure a victory over the woeful Cowboys is a true indicator of that.

15. There were several relatively close contests between FBS and FCS teams, but I'm not sure they are indicative of anything other than teams still trying to figure out who and what they are, either with new coaches or new QBs. 

16. Troy edged Sam Houston 24-21, which I think indicates that the Bearkats will be much improved this year, as the Trojans are expected to win the SBC West. SHS fell from 10-3 under KC Keeler (now at Temple) to 2-10 last year in HC Phil Longo's 1st year, and this result could lead to a bounce back to at least challenging for a bowl.

17. LSU destroyed Clemson 51-10, handing Clemson HC Dabo Swinney the worst loss of his career. The Kiffin era in Death Valley is off to a great start as the Bayou Bengals should be no worse than 7-1 when Alabama rolls into Baton Rouge on Nov 7. The Tigers limp back to their version of Death Valley having lost each of their last 4 opening games. They have 2 home games against Ga Southern and UNC before traveling to Berkeley to take on the Cal Golden Bears on a Friday night. They should get by those 3, but that's certainly up for debate, but then the Miami Hurricanes come blowing into Clemson. This may be a long season for the Tigers.

18. Michigan barely survived Western Michigan as they scored a TD on the last play to win 13-12. Replays show that the ball was in the air on the previous play when time expired, but the replay booth evidently had a different view, which showed the ball being touched out of bounds with 1 second remaining, so that 1 second was put back on the clock for one final play, which turned out to be the difference as the Wolverines converted a Hail Mary for the final TD. To steal a phrase, the Broncos went from the thrill of victory- a 12-7 win with the clock expired- to the agony of defeat, all in one play. This is a result that could have long-standing repercussions for WMU. A win here would have been program changing, and could have propelled them to the CFP. Go undefeated, with a win over Michigan and maybe Boise State in 3 weeks? That's a CFP team right there. The Broncos would probably be welcoming the Broncos with confidence and momentum. Instead, they will need to regroup, and may now be doubting themselves in big moments, wondering if they can close out opponents. This is on par with the Nebraska kick for a TD against Missouri, the Colorado 5th down, also over Mizzou, the Central Michigan extra play against Oklahoma State, and several others with controversial endings. Just a different perspective, as everything else I've seen or read has been about Michigan and how this affects the Wolverines. But I believe the bigger impacts are on the Broncos. Will this make WMU stronger and perhaps galvanize them in a way the win wouldn't? Or will this be the beginning of a what ultimately turns out to be a disappointing season and a year of "what ifs"? By the way, this is Michigan's 30th straight win against unranked opponents, which is the 3rd longest current streak (according to the graphic on TV that I saw following the game, which I assume is true). I can't find the 2 teams with the alleged longer streaks, with Google AI claiming they are Georgia with 48 and Notre Dame with 39- since 2016, which I know is wrong since the Fighting Irish lost to an unranked Northern Illinois just 2 years ago in 2024. The lesson is don't ever trust AI, boys and girls. I did find that the all-time record is 100 games which ended when Alabama lost to Texas A&M in 2021.

19. UCLA thunked Cal, winning 45-24. This is probably a rather meaningless result in the long run, but it could indicate that the Bruins may make some noise in the Big Ten and/or the Golden Bears aren't as good as many expected, as they were a trendy pick as a dark horse in the ACC.

20. Nevada destroyed WKU 49-14, which is disappointing since the Hilltoppers are one of my picks to make the CUSA CG, but it's exciting for the Wolf Pack as it may indicate an end to 4 straight seasons of 2 or 3-win seasons. This is especially surprising considering WKU won this contest 31-16 last season. Nevada could be 3-0 when they host Air Force in their MWC opener on Sep 26.

21. Louisville vs Ole Miss in Nashville was a true tale of 2 halves. The 1st half ended with the Rebels leading 10-6. The 2nd half was filled with offensive fireworks from both sides, as Ole Miss kicked a FG on the last play of the game to win 41-38 over the Cardinals. There were16 total points in the 1st half, and 63 points in the 2nd. This was a contest between 2 evenly matched teams, and it simply came down to whoever had the ball last was going to win.

22. Notre Dame and Washington both won relatively easily, each pulling away in the 2nd half. Like much of the weekend, there were no surprises.

23. All but 4 of the 138 FBS teams played this weekend. The ones who didn't? Virginia, TCU, NC State, and North Carolina.

That's it for this week! Come back tomorrow for my updated Power Rankings!

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!