Odds and Ends 10/28/26
Welcome Back!
Before I begin, there are 2 Wednesday games this week:
Wednesday, October 21
Kennesaw State @ Middle Tennessee- The teams have split their 2 meetings the last 2 seasons, with each team winning at home. I expect the same result this year. Blue Raiders win at home over the 1-6 Owls.
Jacksonville State @ New Mexico State - Like the game above, these teams have split their 2 meetings, each winning at home, but those were in 2023-24. This is a key game in the CUSA title chase, with JSU at 5-2/3-0 and NMSU at 3-4/2-1. The Gamecocks can all but clinch their spot in the CUSA CG with a win, as their only remaining tough game is at WKU on Nov 14. The Aggies need this win to stay in the race, as they have Liberty next week and a game at Middle Tennessee in the final week. JSU wins a close one.
Odds and Ends
I feel that the path to the championship game is more wide open this year than it has been since at least 2007. There doesn't seem to be any dominant team, and every team is vulnerable to having a bad day, more so than in the past. For example, back when Alabama and Clemson were on their runs a decade or so ago, they were still better than 95%-99% of other teams, even if they played poorly. That doesn't seem to be the case this year. Hence more teams have a possibility of winning it all. There also don't seem to be as many teams on the other end of the spectrum- teams so bad they couldn't defeat a team of babies in strollers.
And that makes this season kinda fun! And also so, so difficult to predict.
Interconference results
The OOC portion of the schedule is mostly over, but will pick up at the end of the season with a few OOC rivalry games. Therefore, I will revisit this at the end of the regular season.
Intraconference results
The Sun Belt West leads the East 2-1 after their 1st weekend of crossover games.
Undefeated/Winless teams
There are now only 3 undefeated teams (2.2% of FBS teams) after the 8th week, as 3 teams suffered their 1st loss. These are listed alphabetically, with all teams 7-0 except where noted.
Miami, Fl
UCLA
Utah
Here are the winless teams, also listed alphabetically, and 0-7 except where noted. There is now only 1 of these teams left.
Northern Illinois
Here is how the conferences compare. The first number is the amount of undefeated teams, the 2nd the number of winless teams.
Big 12- 1/0
Big Ten- 1/0
ACC- 1/0
Sun Belt- 0/0
SEC- 0/0
Independents-0/0
MAC- 0/0
Pac 12- 0/0
CUSA- 0/0
American- 0/0
Mountain West- 0/1
Just for fun, here are the teams that have a win, but no FBS wins.
Akron
Kennesaw State
Rice
Sacramento State
Sam Houston
UTEP
Washington State
That's 7 teams, as 1 team earned their 1st FBS win last weekend, broken down this way:
CUSA- 2
MAC- 2
American- 1
Pac 12- 1
Mountain West- 1
SBC- 0
Big Ten- 0
ACC- 0
Big 12- 0
SEC- 0
Independents- 0
This means that there are 8 teams- 5.8% of the 138- that still have no FBS wins.
Bowl eligible/eliminated
The number has swelled to 29 teams becoming bowl eligible with 6 wins, an increase of 12 teams. There are now 36 non-playoff bowl games, so 72 teams are needed, plus the 12 for the CFP. That means 84 teams will be needed for postseason play. All teams are eligible for postseason play, but UMass and Buffalo will need 7 wins, since 2 are against FCS teams, and only 1 can count. These are listed alphabetically.
Alabama
Arizona
Boise State
BYU
Georgia
Houston
Indiana
James Madison
Kentucky
Liberty
Memphis
Miami, Fl
New Mexico
North Dakota State
Northwestern
Notre Dame
Ohio
Ohio State
SMU
Tennessee
Texas Tech
Toledo
UCLA
USC
Utah
UTSA
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest
55 more teams are needed to fill all the bowl slots.
5 teams have been eliminated from bowl consideration, though that may no longer be true. I've just read that the NCAA has okayed teams with a 5-7 record playing in bowls without a waiver or APR minimum score for participation. I will continue to list teams with 7 losses as eliminated (for now).
Akron
Northern Illinois
Rice
Sacramento State
Washington State
Conference Races
Now that we have started play, some teams have started to surge ahead while others have fallen behind. Here is a handy chart to help you see where every team stands. This does NOT include results from Tuesday games.
Paul's Playoff Picks
Navy is my first team to be eliminated from the CFP. I'm sure there will be more, but so far my picks have done very well.
As a refresher, here is the setup for the CFP:
4 slots are reserved for the P4 conference champions; 7 slots are at-large (any team), but will include the highest rated G6 team regardless of if they are a conference champion. Notre Dame is also guaranteed a spot as long as they finish in the top 12 (can't be bumped by a lower rated conference champion).
The top 4 seeds get a bye for the 1st round. This year, there are again no allowances made for conference champions beyond being accepted into the field. The next 4 seeds get a home game for the 1st round, and the 9-12 seeds travel to play 4-8 (4 vs 12, 5 vs 11, etc.). Teams are not reseeded after the 1st round. After the 1st round, it plays out like any tournament- quarterfinals, semifinals, then finals, all at neutral sites (which I hope will change in future years).
So the 1st task is picking who will be P4 conference champions and get the automatic berths, and then what other teams from those conferences may get in. So I decided to take this conference by conference. But as I looked through each team who I felt had a chance, I see the potential for each of the P4 conferences to have as many as 6 teams with 10 or more wins! Obviously, they all won't (or at least I hope not) but even if each of the P4 only has 3 teams with 10+ wins, that's already more teams than spaces available in the CFP, if you include a G6 team. And don't forget about Notre Dame! So here's what I think.
In the SEC, I think several teams have a chance to make the CFP. Georgia is an obvious choice, but there are as many as 8 teams with a chance to get to 9 wins. Alabama, LSU, Texas, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and Tennessee all have potential. I can see any of this group of teams to be capable of winning anywhere from 9-11 games, mostly depending on avoiding upsets, and how they do against each other. South Carolina, Auburn, and Florida could be dark horses.
The Big Ten has much of the same problem- as many as 7 teams could win anywhere from 9-11 games (I'm not predicting any 12-0 teams), those teams being Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana, Michigan, Iowa, USC, and Penn State. Washington and Nebraska could be dark horses, as well as Minnesota or some other team.
In the ACC, most of the top teams don't play each other, more than once or twice, so once again we have the potential of having Miami, SMU, Clemson, Ga Tech, Louisville, Pitt, and Virginia getting to 9+ wins, with NC State or Va Tech being dark horses.
In the Big 12, I could see BYU, Utah, Houston, Arizona, Texas Tech, and/or TCU getting as many as 9 wins, with UCF or Arizona State being a dark horse.
In the G6, I see only about 4 or 5 teams that could get to 11 wins, but as many as 8 could get to 10 wins.
Having said all that, here is who I think makes it into this year's 12-team CFP, presented in no particular order:
Oregon- Likely eliminated with 3 losses
Indiana- Lost to OSU, but still on track
Georgia- Loss to Auburn could keep them out of SECCG but not the CFP
Notre Dame- Loss to BYU severly hampers CFP chances, especially if they lose to Miami on Nov 7
Texas- As close to being eliminated without being eliminated as possible
Ohio State- Big win over Indiana keeps them among the favorites
Miami, FL- No challenges until at least late October
Texas Tech- Suffered 1st loss to an unranked team by double digits
Alabama- Still alive
Navy- ELIMINATED
BYU- Loss to UCF hurts
SMU- Is 6-1, but has yet to look like a CFP team
Some of you are probably screaming at me right now with, "what about...?" and you would probably be right. This is all just a colossal guess. So to hedge my bets a bit, here are the teams I think also have a decent chance to make it in, again in no particular order. This list is getting smaller as I delete teams on this list as they become eliminated.
UTSA
Houston
Arizona
Boise State
Ole Miss
Tennessee
James Madison
This is obviously an extensive list, because I basically listed every P4 team with a chance to get 9+ wins, and every G6 team that I think could get 10+ wins. I am 99.9% sure that I will be wrong about much of this, but I would be happy if I get at least 6 of the 12 teams right, and if all 12 come from these 2 lists.
My pick to win it all was Oregon, which would give the Big Ten 4 consecutive national championships from 4 different teams! That is looking increasingly unlikely...
I'll update how my picks are doing each Wednesday throughout the season.
Feel free to leave a comment. Come back tomorrow for Paul's Picks!
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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