Odds and Ends 10/7/26

Welcome Back!

Before I begin, there are 2 Wednesday games this week:

Wednesday, October 7

Jacksonville State @ Kennesaw State- The Owls lead this brief series 4-3, winning in 2017 in the FCS Playoffs and 19-15 in last year's CUSA Championship Game, but the Gamecocks have won 3 of the last 4, since 2022. The teams are each 1-1 in Kennesaw's Fifth Third Bank Stadium. KSU started last season 0-2 before going on a tear and winning 11 of the next 12, then dropping their 1st ever bowl game to Western Michigan. However, the 1 loss in that span was to Jax State. The Owls are only 1-3 this season so far, but to be honest, they have played a tough schedule, losing to an SEC team and 2 from the Sun Belt Conference. JSU is 3-2, and the Gamecocks won their contest against an SBC team, and they also own a CUSA win. I expect this to be a close game, as 3 of the last 4 meetings have been, but JSU wins on the road.

New Mexico State @ FIU- The Panthers and Aggies have split their 4 previous meetings, but FIU is 1-0 in Miami. The Panthers are 2-2, losing at the road to 2 American Conference teams, but their 2 victories- Buffalo and an FCS squad- are nothing to crow about. NMSU is 2-3, with similarly tough losses and uninspiring wins, though the Aggies are 1-0 in CUSA. Flip a coin. Aggies win a close one.

Odds and Ends

Today I'll talk mostly about the lists of undefeated and winless teams, as well as those with a win, but no FBS wins.

Interconference results

The OOC portion of the schedule is mostly over, but will pick up at the end of the season with a few OOC rivalry games. Therefore, I will revisit this at the end of the regular season.

Intraconference results

The only conference with divisions is the Sun Belt, and they have yet to play a cross-division game.

Undefeated/Winless teams

There are now only 15 undefeated teams (10.9% of FBS teams) after the 4th week, as 6 teams suffered their 1st loss. These are listed alphabetically, with all teams 5-0 except where noted.

Alabama

BYU (4-0)

Duke (4-0)

Georgia

Indiana

James Madison

Miami, Fl

Nebraska

North Dakota State 

Notre Dame

Pittsburgh

Texas (4-0)

Texas Tech

UCLA (4-0)

Utah (4-0)

Here are the winless teams, also listed alphabetically, and 0-5 except where noted. There are only 3 of these teams left, as 1 (Bowling Green) earned their 1st win last weekend.

Charlotte

Northern Illinois (0-4)

ULM

Here is how the conferences compare. The first number is the amount of undefeated teams, the 2nd the number of winless teams.

SEC- 3/0 

Big Ten- 3/0 

Big 12- 3/0 

ACC- 3/0 

Independents-1/0 

Sun Belt- 1/1 

Mountain West- 1/1 

American- 0/1 

MAC- 0/0

Pac 12- 0/0 

CUSA- 0/0 

Just for fun, here are the teams that have a win, but no FBS wins.

Akron

Ball State

Buffalo (2-0)

CCU

Georgia Tech

Kennesaw State

Missouri State

Navy

ODU

Rice

Rutgers

Sacramento State

Sam Houston

Southern Miss

UTEP

Washington State

WKU

That's 17 teams, as 8 teams earned their 1st FBS win last weekend, broken down this way:

CUSA- 4

MAC- 4

SBC- 3

American- 2

Big Ten- 1

ACC- 1

Pac 12- 1

Mountain West- 1

Big 12- 0

SEC- 0

Independents- 0

This means that there are 20 teams- 14.4% of the 138- that still have no FBS wins.

Bowl eligible/eliminated

I will start listing these as soon as teams become bowl eligible (6 wins) or eliminated (7 losses). Look for this next week, as at least 2 teams will become bowl eligible when 5-0 Alabama hosts 5-0 Georgia, and 5-0 Indiana visits 5-0 Nebraska.

Paul's Playoff Picks

Navy is my first team to be eliminated from the CFP. I'm sure there will be more, but so far my picks have done very well.

As a refresher, here is the setup for the CFP:

4 slots are reserved for the P4 conference champions; 7 slots are at-large (any team), but will include the highest rated G6 team regardless of if they are a conference champion. Notre Dame is also guaranteed a spot as long as they finish in the top 12 (can't be bumped by a lower rated conference champion). 

The top 4 seeds get a bye for the 1st round. This year, there are again no allowances made for conference champions beyond being accepted into the field. The next 4 seeds get a home game for the 1st round, and the 9-12 seeds travel to play 4-8 (4 vs 12, 5 vs 11, etc.). Teams are not reseeded after the 1st round. After the 1st round, it plays out like any tournament- quarterfinals, semifinals, then finals, all at neutral sites (which I hope will change in future years).

So the 1st task is picking who will be P4 conference champions and get the automatic berths, and then what other teams from those conferences may get in. So I decided to take this conference by conference. But as I looked through each team who I felt had a chance, I see the potential for each of the P4 conferences to have as many as 6 teams with 10 or more wins! Obviously, they all won't (or at least I hope not) but even if each of the P4 only has 3 teams with 10+ wins, that's already more teams than spaces available in the CFP, if you include a G6 team. And don't forget about Notre Dame! So here's what I think. 

In the SEC, I think several teams have a chance to make the CFP. Georgia is an obvious choice, but there are as many as 8 teams with a chance to get to 9 wins.  Alabama, LSU, Texas, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and Tennessee all have potential. I can see any of this group of teams to be capable of winning anywhere from 9-11 games, mostly depending on avoiding upsets, and how they do against each other. South Carolina, Auburn, and Florida could be dark horses.

The Big Ten has much of the same problem- as many as 7 teams could win anywhere from 9-11 games (I'm not predicting any 12-0 teams), those teams being Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana, Michigan, Iowa, USC, and Penn State. Washington and Nebraska could be dark horses, as well as Minnesota or some other team.

In the ACC, most of the top teams don't play each other, more than once or twice, so once again we have the potential of having Miami, SMU, Clemson, Ga Tech, Louisville, Pitt, and Virginia getting to 9+ wins, with NC State or Va Tech being dark horses.

In the Big 12, I could see BYU, Utah, Houston, Arizona, Texas Tech, and/or TCU getting as many as 9 wins, with UCF or Arizona State being a dark horse. 

In the G6, I see only about 4 or 5 teams that could get to 11 wins, but as many as 8 could get to 10 wins.

Having said all that, here is who I think makes it into this year's 12-team CFP, presented in no particular order:

Oregon- Seems to be back on track

Indiana- Looking unstoppable, but big game at undefeated Nebraska

Georgia- Just keeps on keeping on, but visits Alabama next

Notre Dame- May be the best team

Texas- Must win the Red River Rivalry to stay on track

Ohio State- One loss to a top team won't hurt, but margin for error is reduced

Miami, FL- No challenges until at least late October

Texas Tech- Undefeated, but not dominant

Alabama- Just rolling along, but big game versus UGA this weekend

Navy- ELIMINATED

BYU- Another team that won't be challenged until mid-October

SMU- Is 4-1, but has yet to look like a CFP team

Some of you are probably screaming at me right now with, "what about...?" and you would probably be right. This is all just a colossal guess. So to hedge my bets a bit, here are the teams I think also have a decent chance to make it in, again in no particular order. I will delete teams on this list as they become eliminated.

UTSA

Memphis

Houston

Arizona

USC

Boise State

Fresno State

Ole Miss

LSU

Tennessee

James Madison

This is obviously an extensive list, because I basically listed every P4 team with a chance to get 9+ wins, and every G6 team that I think could get 10+ wins. I am 99.9% sure that I will be wrong about much of this, but I would be happy if I get at least 6 of the 12 teams right, and if all 12 come from these 2 lists.

My pick to win it all was Oregon, which would give the Big Ten 4 consecutive national championships from 4 different teams!

I'll update how my picks are doing each Wednesday throughout the season.

Feel free to leave a comment. Come back tomorrow for Paul's Picks! 

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!