Paul's Picks 2026 Week 5
Welcome Back!
Last week, I was better than usual again, though I had my worst week so far (not counting Week Zero). I finished at 55-16 for a winning percentage of 77.5%. Overall, I am 277-54, or 83.7%, a drop of 1.7% from the week before. There is no way I will sustain that for the year, but maybe I can stay above 75% this year. There are only 59 games in total this week, 12 less than last week. We still have a few FCS games, but by and large, conference contests are the majority of the games this week. Which makes picking a winner that much more difficult.
So... on with the picks!
Thursday, October 1
WKU @ New Mexico State- The Aggies won the 1st contest in 2023 in Bowling Green, but the Hilltoppers have won the last 2, by 13 and 19 points. Both teams are 1-3, but WKU has played a much tougher schedule, though both of their wins are against the same FCS team, and by a similar score. Hilltoppers top NMSU.
North Texas @ Tulsa- This series began in 1957, with the Golden Hurricane holding a 17-9 lead, but the Mean Green have won the last 3 (since 2013), including 52-20 in their last matchup in 2024 in Denton. Tulsa has the better record, and a P4 win as well, but UNT has the better team. The Mean Green wins their 4th in a row over the Golden Hurricane.
And just like that, I'm picking the visitor in the early games...
Friday, October 2
Pittsburgh @ Virginia Tech- These teams have been playing regularly-ish since 1993, with an 8-game hiatus between 2004 and 2011. The Hokies lead the series 12-11, and won 38-21 in the last meeting in Blacksburg, but the Panthers have won 3 of the last 4, and 10 of the last 14. However, VT is 7-3 at home in Lane Stadium. Both come into this game undefeated, but neither has looked impressive against fellow P4 teams, including the victory each has over ACC bottom feeders. The Hokies win at home.
Liberty @ Delaware- The Flames downed the Fightin' Blue Hens 59-30 last season in Lynchburg, and they'll win again in Newark, but the score will be closer.
Penn State @ Northwestern- The Nittany Lions have a big 16-6 lead in this series, but the Wildcats have won 3 of the last 6, including 22-21 last season. This game will be the debut of the newly renovated ($862 million) Ryan Field. Emotions will be high, but both teams are coming off disappointing losses, with NU falling just short of an upset at Indiana and PSU blowing a 17-0 lead against Wisconsin at home. I think the Wildcats pull the upset to dedicate their newly reopened stadium.
Saturday, September 26
Notre Dame @ North Carolina- The Fighting Irish hold a dominating 21-2 lead in this series, winning the last 5 (since 2014). What's even worse for the Tar Heels is that one of their 2 wins (29-24 in 2008) has been vacated, and the other was in 1960. What gives UNC hope, however, is that both of those took place in Chapel Hill. Unfortunately, it's false hope. The Irish win big.
Alabama @ Mississippi State- This may be the most lopsided series that has been played more than 100 times, as the Crimson Tide lead 87-18-3, though their 2005 win has been vacated. The Tide have won 16 in a row (since 2008) as the Bulldogs haven't won in Starkville (or anywhere else) since 2007. And one of MSU's 18 wins was an Alabama forfeit in 1993. Only twice have the Bulldogs won as many as 3 in a row, and they once won 4 out of 5- from 1996-2000. However, both teams come into this game undefeated, and MSU could really establish themselves as a force with an upset. Both teams have a win against South Carolina. Alabama rolls again, but it could be close late into the 2nd half.
UCF @ Houston- The Knights actually lead this series 8-4, winning 3 of the last 4 (since 2019), but the Cougars won 30-27 last year. UCF has won 3 of the last 4 played in Houston, and are 3-2 all time there. Both teams are 3-1, and it should be a competitive game, but UH wins it.
Boston College @ SMU- The Mustangs have a 3-1 lead in this brief series, winning in 1986, 2024, and 45-13 last season, but the Eagles own a victory in the 2023 Fenway Bowl. The Ponies should win this easily, but I'm not so sure that will happen. BC is improving, and SMU just seems a bit off this year. I think the Eagles take this to the wire, but SMU hangs on for the win, but I wouldn't be surprised at an upset.
Middle Tennessee @ Kansas- The Blue Raiders and Jayhawks will be meeting for the 1st time, and I expect KU will get their 1st FBS win, especially coming off their off week.
West Virginia @ Iowa State- This series is tied at 6 wins apiece, but the Cyclones have won 5 of the last 6 (since 2018) including the last 2 in 2022 and 2024, and the last 3 played in Ames. I got sucked into picking the Mountaineers las weekend after their victory over UVA, but I won't make that mistake again. ISU wins at home.
Stanford @ Wake Forest- The Demon Deacons have won 2 of the 3 contests with the Cardinal (since 2009). Both teams have a loss to Miami, and both won narrowly against ACC conference foes this past weekend. WF wins a close one.
Syracuse @ UConn- The Orange have an 8-6 series lead, but 2 of those wins (their 1st 2, in 2004 and 2006) have been vacated, leaving the series tied at 6 wins each. However, Syracuse has won the last 6 over the Huskies (since 2012), and will make it 7 in a row with their 3rd consecutive win in East Hartford.
Michigan @ Minnesota- The Wolverines have dominated this series, leading 78-25-3 as they've won the last 5 (since 2015) and 11 of the last 12 (since 2006), and 44 of the last 48 (since 1968). Interestingly, each of Minnesota's last 3 wins have come in Ann Arbor, meaning the Golden Gophers haven't won in Minneapolis since 1977, almost 50 years ago! Could this be the year they break the streak? The Gophers laid an egg against Mississippi State at home in Week 2, but upset Washington last weekend in Seattle. Michigan has had its moments, defeating a ranked Oklahoma at home, but they won a game against Western Michigan they should have lost, and then did lose last week to Iowa, with both of those at home. This will be the 1st road game for the Wolverines, and I may be crazy, but I think the Golden Gophers pull the upset and claim the Little Brown Jug.
Navy @ Air Force- The Air Force Academy has a 34-24 lead in the series, winning 4 of the last 6, but the Midshipmen have won each of the last 2. Navy was expected by many (including me!) to win the American Conference and perhaps make the CFP, but they are off to a 1-2 start with no FBS wins, and are 0-2 in their conference. The Falcons are off to a 2-1 start, with their loss to an undefeated North Dakota State, as they are 1-1 in the Mountain West. This game could go either way, regardless of the records of the respective teams, but Air Force soars over and through the Midshipmen to claim the 1st leg of the Commander-in-Chief Trophy.
Michigan State @ Wisconsin- The Spartans lead this series 31-24, but their last win, in 2022, was vacated. In addition, MSU forfeited a game in 1994, and the Badgers own a 42-39 win in the 2011 Big Ten Championship Game, and have won 2 of the last 3 (since 2016). Interestingly, there has never been a tie in this series, and unless the rules change, or something really unusual happens, there never will be. The Spartans are one of the worst teams in the conference, and Wisconsin may actually be competent this year. Badgers win.
Vanderbilt @ Georgia- The Bulldogs have dominated this series, leading 62-20-2, winning the last 6 (since 2017), and 52 of the last 57 (since 1962), with one of those the 13-13 tie my senior year in Nashville (1985). Three of Vandy's last 4 wins in the series have taken place in Athens, surprisingly enough, so that gives the Commodores a bit of hope. Dawgs win, but maybe not as big as in many of the past 52 wins.
Western Michigan @ Buffalo- The Broncos lead 9-2, winning the last 4 (since 2016). WMU 2-2, with its 2 losses to Boise State last week and in the opener to Michigan in that controversial finish. The Bulls are also 2-2, but both wins are over FCS teams. Broncos trample the Bulls.
Toledo @ Ball State- The Rockets lead the series 28-21-1, winning each of the last 4 (since 2021). The Cardinals are 1-3 with their only win over an FCS club, while Toledo is 3-1. with their only loss against P4 Michigan State. Rockets win.
Ohio State @ Iowa- This just may be the game of the day. The Buckeyes have a large 49-15-3 lead in this series, with one of those wins vacated (2010), as they've won the last 2, and 15 of the last 17 (since 1992). However, The Hawkeyes won the last time this game was played in Iowa City, and have won 2 of the last 4 contests in Kinnick Stadium. Surprisingly, Iowa is the team that comes in undefeated, and I really, really want them to win this game, but I think OSU is one of the best 5-10 best teams in CFB, and the Hawkeyes are not. Bucks win.
Florida @ Missouri- The Tigers lead this series 7-6, winning 33-31 in their last meeting in 2022, as they've won the last 2, and 3 of the last 4, played in Columbia. Mizzou also owns a win from their 1st meeting, a 2018 win in the 1966 Sugar Bowl following the 1965 season. The Gators come into this game hot, at 4-0, and fresh off a rout of Ole Miss. The Tigers are 3-1, losing to upstart Mississippi State by 7 last week. UF may be due for a letdown, but I doubt it. Gators chomp Mizzou.
Auburn @ Tennessee- This used to be played every year (from 1957-1991, always the last Saturday in September, and serving as an early test in the SEC), and was always hotly contested. With the advent of divisions in 1992, this game fell by the wayside. These teams did meet twice in the SEC Championship Game, with the Volunteers winning 30-29 in 1997 and the Tigers taking a 38-28 win in 2004. The War Eagles lead the series 29-22-3, and have won 7 of the last 8 (since 2003), with UT's last win in 2018 in Auburn, but the Plainsmen have won the last 3 played in Knoxville. Both teams are 3-1, but they are not the same level talent-wise, at least not yet. Vols win.
California @ UNLV- Each team has 1 win in this recent series, with the Golden Bears winning 20-14 in 2022 in Berkeley and the Rebels taking a 24-13 win in the 2024 LA Bowl. Both teams are 2-2, and as expected, neither has been very consistent. This should be a close contest, and I'm tempted to pick UNLV, but I think Cal pulls it out late.
Louisville @ NC State- The Cardinals lead the series 9-4, winning the last 2 (since 2022), but the Wolfpack is 3-3 over the last 6 meetings, and 2-2 in Raleigh. NC State also owns a 31-24 win in the 2011 Belk Bowl. Both teams are 2-2, but I haven't been impressed with either one. UL bounces back to win on the road.
Virginia @ FSU- The Seminoles lead this series 15-5, with a win in 2006 vacated, but 4 of UVA's 5 wins have come in the last 7 matchups (since 2005), and 3 within the last 4 (2011 to 46-38 last year). The Cavaliers lost to West Virginia in Charlotte a couple of weeks ago, and this will be their 1st true road contest, but I'm pretty sure thay can handle the Noles, who have lost 13 of their last 15 ACC games. Wahoos win to claim the Jefferson-Eppes Trophy.
Memphis @ Charlotte- The Tigers have defeated the 49ers both times they have met, in 2023 and 2024, but the victories were only by 6 and 5 points respectively. Memphis wins, but I doubt it will be a 1-score game again.
Samford @ UAB- The Bulldogs demolished the Blazers 49-3 in their only meeting, but that was more than 30 years ago, in 1992. UAB gets revenge and evens the score.
Wyoming @ North Dakota State- The Cowboys already have a conference win this season, but are 0-2 on the road so far, extending their road losing streak to 7 in a row. The Bison are 4-0 in their first season at the FBS level, are also 1-0 in the Mountain West, and are coming out of their off week. NDSU wins to even the series at 1 win apiece (Wyoming won 16-13 in their only prior meeting in 2008.
Akron @ Central Michigan- The Chippewas lead the series 19-11-1, winning 13 of the last 16 (since 1998), but the Zips won 28-22 last season. Akron hasn't won in Mt. Pleasant since 2003, losing 5 consecutive in Kelly/Shorts Stadium. CMU does have a win over Wyoming while the Zips have only defeated an FCS squad. Chips win.
Eastern Michigan @ UMass- The Eagles have won 4 in a row in the series to lead 4-2, and EMU is one of the few teams that have already played 5 games (2-3 record). UMass is 4-0 and looking to be 5-0 for the 1st time since 1975, when they started 8-0 before finishing 8-2. It should be noted, however, that in 1990, the Minutemen began the season with a tie, then reeled off 8 straight victories before ending up at 8-2-1 with a loss in the 1st round of the Division I-AA Playoffs. Both teams are 1-0 in the MAC, with a win over Sacramento State. The Eagles are now on the downslope of their opening 9-game slog before their off week, and my guess is they're starting to wear down a bit. UMass wins a close one at home.
Ohio @ Kent State- The Bobcats have almost doubled up on the Golden Flashes, holding a 47-27-2 series edge, and have won the last 2, and 9 of the last 11 (since 2014). They've also won 4 of the last 5 played in Kent. My guess is Ohio wins again.
Bowling Green @ Miami, Oh- The Redhawks have a 48-25-5 lead in this series, winning the last 2, and 5 of the last 6 (since 2018), as the Falcons haven't won in Oxford since 2017. BGSU is off to a terrible start, as they are 0-4 with a loss to an FCS team, 2 P4 teams, and USF from the American Conference. miami is 2-2 with noth losses to P4 teams. The Redhawks dominate the Falcons.
ODU @ Georgia State- The Panthers are one of the surprise teams early in the 2026 season, as they've started 3-1 with their only loss at UCF. Their wins have all been by at least 14 points, though the best victory would appear to be over Kennesaw State, last year's CUSA champion but off to a 1-3 start this season. The Monarchs are only 1-3 with an FCS win, but their losses are to Va Tech, ECU (by 3), and JMU last week. ODU leads the series 6-1, with GSU's only win coming in 2022. The Panthers may be fools' gold, but I see them pulling the upset.
Marshall @ James Madison- It appears that it does not matter who coaches the Dukes; they just keep on winning. JMU is off to a 4-0 start for the 5th time in the last 6 seasons (was 12-2 last year with their only regular season loss to Louisville in week 2), but the Thundering Herd has reeled off 3 straight victories after opening the season with a loss at Penn State, though those were over 2 CUSA teams and an FCS squad. Marshall leads the series 4-2, with wins in the 1987 and 1994 Division I-AA Playoffs, but the teams are 2-2 since JMU joined the FBS in 2022. However, the Dukes are 0-2 in Harrisonburg so far. JMU rights that wrong and wins easily.
Maryland @ Nebraska- The Cornhuskers lead this series 3-1, but the Terrapins did get their lone win in 2023 in Lincoln. There is a world where the Terps have a chance for a win, but it isn't this world. Huskers win big.
UTEP @ New Mexico- The Lobos lead this series 44-33-3, winning the last meeting 27-10 in 2022, but the Miners have won 5 of the last 7 matchups (since 2007). UNM is one of the best G6 teams. UTEP is not. Lobos devour the Miners.
Kentucky @ South Carolina- The Gamecocks lead 22-14-1, minus a UK win in 2021 that has been vacated. SC has won the last 4 in a row since 2022, but that ended a string of 6 Kentucky wins in 7 years. The Wildcats are off to a 3-1 start, losing only to Alabama in week 2, and if they want to move up in the SEC, they need to win games like this over mediocre teams. UK wins.
Purdue @ Illinois- This is one of the most even rivalries, as the Boilermakers lead 48-47-6 after 2 straight Fighting Illini wins. Purdue has won 7 of the last 10, but they won't be able to wrest the Purdue Cannon back from Illinois as the Illini win their 3rd in a row in the series.
Oregon State @ Colorado State- This series is tied 2-2, with the Rams winning in 1975 and 2017, and the Beavers claiming victory in 1962 and 2018. The 2017 game is the only previous time this has been played in Fort Collins. Both teams are 2-2 but OSU has looked a little more impressive, and have won their last 2 while CSU is on a 2-game slide. Beavers win.
Texas Southern @ FAU- The Owls will move to 4-1 by routing the Tigers in this 1st ever meeting.
BYU @ TCU- The Horned Frogs hold a 7-6 advantage over the Cougars, winning 5 of the last 6 (since 2008), but BYU won 44-13 last season. BYU is 3-0 coming out of their bye week while TCU is coming off a loss to UCF. Cougars win.
Arkansas @ Texas A&M- The Razorbacks lead the series 42-37-3, but the Aggies have won the last 4. This will be the 1st time playing in College Station since 2020, as the teams spent 4 years (2021-24) playing in Arlington. Both teams are 2-2, and neither looks overly impressive, but TAMU will be looking to rebound after consecutive losses. The Aggies win their 5th in a row in the series to retain possession of the Southwest Classic Trophy.
UTSA @ Rice- The Owls won the 1st three meetings in this series, from 2012-2014, but the Roadrunners have won 9 of the last 10 with Rice's other win in 2024, the last time they played in Houston. UTSA has moved into the favorite's role in the American Conference, and Rice won't stand in their way. Roadrunners win.
Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina- The Eagles lead the series 8-4, winning the last 3, but the Chanticleers won the 3 before that. Both are 1-3 one third of the way through the season, and neither has an FBS win, but they do have a combined 3 P4 losses, and a combined 3 losses to CUSA teams. Flip a coin, but I like GS on the road.
ULM @ South Alabama- The Jaguars hold a narrow 7-5 edge in the series, winning the last 4, and that will continue as the Warhawks are the worst team in CFB, according to my rankings. SA wins big.
Miami, Fl @ Clemson- This series is as close as it could possibly be, as it is tied at 7 wins each. The Tigers have won 4 of the last 5 (since 2015) including walloping the Hurricanes 38-3 in the 2017 ACC Championship Game, and they also have a win in the 1951 Orange Bowl (following the 1950 season). The Canes evened the score 1 year later with a win in the 1952 Gator Bowl (following the 1951 season). This feels like a real changing-of-the-guard moment in the ACC, one that's been a long time coming. Miami blows away the Tigers.
Texas Tech @ Colorado- The Buffaloes have 6 wins to Texas Tech's 5 in this series, as the Buffs have won 3 of the last 4 (since 2006) and are 4-1 in Boulder. That one loss, however, was the most recent played at Folsom Field, and the Red Raiders will repeat that performance. TT wins big.
Washington @ USC- The Trojans lead the series 52-32-4, with a win in 2005 vacated, but the Huskies have won the last 3 matchups, in 2019, 2023, and 2024, and 3 of the last 4 played in LA. Both teams are coming off their 1st loss, with both losing at home. This is basically a battle for a chance at 4th place, as there is a large gaggle of teams that seem to be on the same level just a tier below Ohio State, Indiana, and Oregon (and including the Ducks in the top tier is debatable). The loser probably gets relegated to the bottom half of the conference. The Men of Troy have just enough offense to outscore UDub. USC wins a close one.
Utah State @ Boise State- The Aggies got a big win last week to maybe start turning their season around, but now have to take on the Broncos on the Smurf Turf. BSU has completely dominated this series, leading 25-5, winning the last 10, and 22 of the last 23 (since 1998). Make it 11 in a row and 23 of 24. Broncos stampede the Aggies.
Temple @ USF- The Owls have a 6-5 advantage in this series, winning 4 of the last 6 (since 2018), but the Bulls won in 2023, the last time they met, and have won 4 of the 5 played in Tampa. Temple has played a very tough schedule, and have acquitted themselves well, though their 1-3 record doesn't reflect that. USF is unbeaten, but their best win is against a 2-1 Army team that just beat the Owls by 4. Bulls win.
Army @ La Tech- The Black Knights nave won all 3 prior meetings with the Bulldogs, in 2008, 2013, and 2024, and they should win this one as well. The Caissons go rolling along!
McNeese @ LSU- The Tigers have defeated the Cowboys by a combined score of 66-17 in their 2 previous meetings, and 33-9 sounds just about right for a Bayou Bengals win.
Indiana @ Rutgers- This series is tied at 5-5, but the Hoosiers have won the last 3, and those were all before Cignetti came along. The Scarlet Knights have no chance no chance of earning their 1st FBS win this week. Indy wins big.
Arkansas State @ Louisiana- The Ragin' Cajuns lead the series 31-22-1, with each team vacating one of those wins, UL in 2013 and ASU in 2005. The Cajuns have won the last 2, and 7 of the last 8 (since 2018), but the last 3 wins by the Red Wolves have all been in Jonesboro. This should be a really ggod game, but UL comes out on top.
Fresno State @ Washington State-The Cougars have a 4-2 lead in this series, but one of the wins by the Bulldogs was in the 2022 LA Bowl. WSU is only 1-3, but all 3 losses are to P4 teams. FS is 3-1, but haven't beaten anyone with a winning record (SJSU is 2-2). Wazzu is 2-1 in Pullman against the Bulldogs, and I think they win again.
Baylor @ Arizona State- The Sun Devils are 2-0 against the Bears, winning in 1990 in Tempe and 27-24 last year in Waco. The Bears are 3-1, with their only loss away from McLane Stadium. ASU wins.
Texas State @ San Diego State- The Aztecs and Bobcats will be meeting for the 1st time, and it could be a key game in the Pac 12 race. TSU is 2-2 with a win over North Texas, and 2 losses that were not unexpected- Texas and UTSA. SDSU is only 1-3 with no FBS wins, but tough losses to James Madison at home and road losses at UCLA and Toledo. The Aztecs win at home.
Cincinnati @ Arizona- The Wildcats topped the Bearcats by 6 last year in Nippert Stadium, but both may very well be improved teams from last year. UC is 4-0 for the 1st time since the 2021 magical season, and are looking to extend that good feeling. UA is 3-1, with their only loss on the road at Big 12 favorite BYU. Wildcats win at home.
San Jose State @ Hawaii- The Spartans lead the series 24-22-1, winning the last 5, and they are actually 5-3 in Honolulu in their last 8 trips to the Island. This is pretty much a toss-up game, as neither team is real good, nor are they real bad. They're both just kind of "meh". UH wins at home.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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