Paul's Picks 2026 Week 6
Welcome Back!
Last week was strong, though I had my worst week so far (not counting Week Zero). I finished at 45-14 for a winning percentage of 76.3%. Overall, I am 322-68, or 82.6%, a drop of 1.1% from the week before. There is no way I will sustain that for the year, but maybe I can stay above 75% this year. There are only 58 games in total this week, 1 fewer than last week. for the 1st time this season, there are no FCS games, and by and large, conference contests are the majority of the games this week. Which makes picking a winner that much more difficult. This week also marks the halfway point in the season for most teams, though a few have already played 6 games.
So... on with the picks!
Thursday, October 8
Sam Houston @ Liberty- Each team is 1-0 at home in this series, and that trend will continue. The Flames burn the Bearkats at home.
Missouri State @ WKU- The Hilltoppers lead this series 7-4, winning 27-22 last season. All the other contests took place between 1984 and 2006. The teams are a combined 2-7 with no FBS wins, so this is a game I would not go out of my way to watch. I'll go with the Bears on the road in a mild upset.
USF @ UTSA- Like the game 2 above this one, each team is 1-0 at home, with the Bulls winning 55-23 last year. Both teams are 4-1, but neither has looked all that impressive. Like the one above, this one could go either way, so I'll go with the Roadrunners to win at home.
South Alabama @ Arkansas State- The Red Wolves lead the series 8-6, winning the last 2 by a combined 3 points. ASU has looked good at times, but lost last week to Louisiana in their SBC opener. The Jaguars are 3-2, but played Tulane close, and won their SBC opener last week, but that was against woeful ULM (ranked last in my Power Rankings). SA wins a close one.
Friday, October 9
FSU @ Louisville- The Seminoles have tripled up on the Cardinals, holding an 18-6 advantage in the series. FSU is 3-2, but looked good in pounding Virginia last week. UL is 2-3, losing each of the last 2 weeks to fall to 1-2 in the ACC. The teams are 3-3 in Louisville since 2002. Each team has played SMU, with the Cards prevailing 41-31 and the Noles succumbing 27-24. The transitive property doesn't always work, and I don't think it will here. FSU wins a close one.
Iowa @ Washington- The Hawkeyes and Huskies have only met 7 times, with Iowa owning a 4-3 edge, with one of their wins in the 199Sun Bowl. However UW has won both times the teams have met in the Rose Bowl: 46-34 in 1991 (following the 1990 season), and 28-0 in 1982 (following the 1981 season). Washington's other win came in their 1st meeting, in 1937, with Iowa's other wins coming in 1963 and 1964, and 40-16 in 2024. The teams are 1-1 in Seattle, but I have little faith in these Huskies. Hawkeyes win.
Washington State @ Utah State- The Cougars lead the series 4-2, winning the last 2, including 34-21 in last year's Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. This year, both are 1-4, with 1 combined FBS win and 1 FCS loss (Utah State for both). The Aggies are 0-1 in Logan, losing the only contest there in 1950. Wazzu wins to get their 1st FBS win.
Wyoming @ San Jose State- The Cowboys took an 8-7 lead in this series with a 35-28 win last year in Laramie, but the Spartans have won 6 of the last 8 (since 2013), and the last 4 played in San Jose. Both teams have a win over Hawaii, but SJSU did it on the road. Spartans win.
Iowa State @ BYU- The Cyclones lead the series by a commanding 5-1, but the Cougars won 41-27 last year, and the series is tied at 1 win each since 2023. The other 4 meetings were all between 1968 and 1974. I think ISU is a pretty decent team, but they'll need to be more than that if they hope to take down BYU. Cougars win.
Saturday, October 10
Indiana @ Nebraska- Surprisingly, given their histories, the Hoosiers lead this series 11-9-3, winning 2 of the last 3 (since 2019), including 56-7 last year. 9 of Indiana's 11 wins came in a stretch from 1941-1959, when the Hoosiers were 9-0-1 against the Cornhuskers. The Huskers are 5-0 and 2-0 in the Big Ten, just like Indiana, but this feels a lot like the lead up to the Alabama-Miss State game from last week. Indy wins.
Texas A&M @ Missouri- The Aggies lead the series 11-7, mostly on the strength of 3 consecutive wins since 2021. Mizzou leads the series 7-5 in games played this century. TAMU has had a disappointing season so far, as they are 1-2 in the SEC. The Tigers are 1-1 in the SEC with a loss to Mississippi State and a win over Florida. Mizzou wins, but they should be on upset alert.
UCF @ Oklahoma State- The Knights have won both matchups with the Cowboys, in 2023 and 2025, but both of those were in Orlando. This is the 1st time this game will be played in Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater, and OSU is coming out of their off week. One more win for the Cowboys would equal the number of wins for the last 2 seasons combined, and I believe they'll accomplish that with a win over UCF.
North Carolina @ Pittsburgh- The Tar Heels lead this series 12-6, winning 2 of the last 3, but the Panthers have won 3 of 5, including 34-24 in the last meeting in 2024. Pitt has also won 2 of the last 3 played at home, and have a 19-17 win in the 2009 Meineke Car Care Bowl. The Panthers are 5-0 entering this game, but lost their starting QB for the season with an ACL injury in their last win over Va Tech. Won't matter. UNC loses their 3rd in a row and drops to 0-2 in the ACC.
Arizona @ West Virginia- The Mountaineers defeated the Wildcats in Tucson in their only prior meeting in 2024. BYU is off to a fast start, losing only to BYU on the road, while WVU has lost 2 in a row after a 3-0 start. Wildcats win.
Wake Forest @ NC State- The Wolfpack have a huge 70-43-6 lead in this series, winning 3 of the last 4, but the Demon Deacons won the last time they played in Carter-Finley Stadium. The 1st meeting was in 1895 and ended in a 4-4 tie, and no, it wasn't from 2 safeties each; back then, TD's only counted 4 points. Anyway, NCSU is better than originally thought after they were blown out by Virginia in the season opener, as they should be 4-1, but had that awful loss to Vandy in Nashville. WF is actually 4-1, with their only loss at Miami. This is a game I feel can go either way, but I'm going to ride with the Demon Deacons in another unlucky, devastating loss for the Wolfpack.
Tulane @ Army- The Green Wave lead the series 14-10, winning 5 of the last 6 (since 2015), but the Black Knights' one win in that span was the most important: 35-14 in the 2024 American Conference Championship Game. Both teams are 2-2, but Army is 1-1 in the conference while this is the American opener for Tulane (who was off last week). Both losses for the Green Wave were to P4 teams, and they appear to be the superior team, but Army is never an easy win. Tulane wins a close one.
Sacramento State @ Bowling Green- The Falcons and Hornets will be meeting for the 1st time, and neither team is very good. BGSU is 1-4, but 1-0 in the MAC, but they have a loss to an FCS team, though they've played better the last 2 weeks. Sac State is also 1-4, but 0-2 in their 1st season in the MAC, with their only win over their FCS foe. However, the Hornets were off last week, so maybe they'll be more prepared. The Falcons win, but this will probably be Sac State's closest loss so far- all their others have been by at least 11 points.
Ball State @ Northwestern- The Wildcats defeated the Cardinals 24-19 in their only previous meeting in 2015. The result here will be the same, but I'll be surprised in NW wins by less than 2 TDs.
South Carolina @ Florida- I'm not sure the Gamecocks will get any more wins this season, as... have you seen their schedule? Good grief! The Gators lead this series 31-10-3, winning the last 2, and 7 of the last 9. SC hasn't won in Gainesville since 2014. Even though UF is coming off being routed by Missouri, this is the perfect team to get right against. Gators chomp the Gamecocks and enjoy chicken for lunch.
ODU @ Appalachian State- The Mountaineers lead the series 4-2, but the Monarchs have won 2 of the last 3. However, ODU is struggling this season despite high expectations, while App State is 3-1 and exiting their off week. ASU wins big.
Miami, Oh @ UMass- The Redhawks own a 5-1 advantage in this series, winning the last 4. Both teams are coming off of devastating losses, as Miami fell to formerly winless Bowling Green and the Minutemen saw their undefeated season ended by Eastern Michigan. However, even if UMass had won last week, I would still have picked the Redhawks. Miami wins.
Texas vs Oklahoma (Dallas)- The Longhorns lead the Red River Rivalry 65-51-5, winning the last 2, and 3 of the last 4, but the Sooners had won 4 in a row before that stretch, including a win in the 2018 Big 12 CG. This game has been played exclusively in Dallas since 1914 except for a 2-year hiatus in 1922 and 1923, when it was a home-and-home arrangement. OU is 2-2 and 0-1 in the SEC and they desperately need a win here to have any hopes of salvaging their season. UT is 4-0/1-0, and while a loss here wouldn't derail their season, they know how important it is to stack up "good" wins. The Horns win, and I doubt it will be close.
Stanford @ Notre Dame- The Fighting Irish lead the series 25-14, but their win in 2012 has been vacated. ND has won 3 in a row in the series, and 6 of the last 7, but Stanford's last win was in South Bend in 2022. The Cardinal just got blown out by Wake Forest, so I don't see them giving the Irish any sort of trouble. ND wins big.
Ole Miss @ Vanderbilt- The Rebels lead the series 56-40-2, but wins in 2013 and 2014 were both vacated. Ole Miss has won the last 5 in the series, and 9 of the last 11, but Vandy's last 2 wins, in 2018 and 2016, were both in Nashville. These teams played every year from 1945-2023, skipping only 1968 and 1969, but this is their 1st meeting since then. A loss here would eliminate what little hope the Commodores have for making the SEC CG, but a Vandy victory would be almost as devastating for the Rebs. Ole Miss has had 2 weeks to stew after their beat down at the hands of the Florida Gators, so they should be ready. Rebels win.
UCLA @ Oregon- the Bruins lead this series 38-35, but the Ducks have won the last 5 (since 2018), and 16 of the last 19, since 2000. UCLA is undefeated, and they haven't really been challenged. They were also off last week. UO is 3-1, with an upset loss at Oklahoma State, but they were also off last week. Oregon has won 35 of their last 37 home contests in Autzen Stadium, so this will just be another for the Quack Attack. Ducks win a close one.
Houston @ Kansas State- Each team has 1 win in the series, each winning at home. The Cougars are 4-1/1-1, with their lone loss at Texas Tech by just 2 points. The Wildcats are 3-1/0-1, losing at Cincinnati just before their bye last week. This should be a good game between to fairly evenly matched teams. UH wins on the road.
Duke @ Georgia Tech- If any team needed a bye week last week it was the Yellow Jackets. Their only win s far is over an FCS team, and 2 teams they have lost to, Colorado and Stanford, are a combined 4-6 with 1 FCS win and 2 P4 wins- both over GT. The Jackets lead the series 56-35-1, winning the last 5, since 2020. However, the Blue Devils are 4-0/1-0, and they also were off last week. Duke wins to extend GT's miserable season.
Virginia Tech @ California- Each team has a win in this series, with the Golden Bears winning 52-49 in the 2003 Insight Bowl and the Hokies winning 42-34 last year in Blacksburg. VT suffered their 1st defeat last week when their potential game-winning FG just barely missed. Cal is 2-3, but have lost their last 2, including last week at UNLV. Hokies win.
Illinois @ Michigan State- The Spartans lead this series 27-20-2, but the Fighting Illini have won 3 of the last 4, and MSU's lone win in that span has been vacated. The Spartans haven't won this game in East Lansing since 2010, which sounds bad, but they've only played there once, in 2019. As bad as Illinois, Michigan State is worse. Illini win.
Charlotte @ North Texas- The 49ers lead 2-1, but the Mean Green won 54-20 last year in Charlotte. The 49ers are 0-5, even losing to their FCS opponent, and I haven't seen much improvement since then. UNT is 3-2/1-0, and even have a win over UNLV. The Mean Green rout Charlotte.
Tulsa @ Navy- The Midshipmen lead this series 9-2, winning the last 3, but both wins by the Golden Hurricane have been in Annapolis, in 2006 and 2020. Navy is experiencing their worst start since they were also 1-3 in 2023, but those teams back then were much tougher than the 4 the have faced this season. Tulsa is 3-2, but only 0-1 in the American Conference, as they've lost their last 2 games. I expect the Midshipmen to put up a fight, but the Hurricane will sink Navy.
Eastern Michigan @ Akron- The Zips lead 20-16, winning the last matchup in 2024, but the Eagles have won 4 of the last 5 (since 2018), including 2 of the last 3 played in Akron. The zips have only one win, and that over an FCS opponent, and all 4 losses have been by at least 22 points. This one may be closer but it'll still be a loss for Akron. EMU wins.
Buffalo @ Toledo- The Rockets lead the series 8-7, but the Bulls have won 4 of the last 5 (since 2018), including 30-15 in their last meeting in 2024. This year, Buffalo is 2-3, with both wins over FCS foes, while Toledo is 4-1 with their only loss at Michigan State in the opener. The Rockets are 6-1 againts the Bulls in the Glass Bowl. Toledo wins.
Central Michigan @ Ohio- The Chippewas have a huge 27-7-2 lead in this series, including wins in the 2006 and 2009 MAC Championship Game, but the Bobcats have won the last 2, in 2023 and 2024. Both teams are 3-2/1-0, with a loss each to a P4 team and another OOC loss to top G6 teams on the road. Flip a coin. Ohio wins at home.
Kent State @ Western Michigan- The Broncos have a commanding 37-20-1 lead in the series, winning the last 4 (since 2016), as the Golden Flashes have only won twice in Kalamazoo since 1979: in 1988 and in 2013. WMU wins big.
UConn @ Temple- The Owls have doubled up the Huskies, leading the series 14-7, but UConn has won 2 of the last 4, including the most recent meeting in 2024. Both teams are 2-3, with the Huskies losing twice to P4 teams and also to Miami, Oh, and Temple losing to a P4 team, at Toledo, and to Army at home. However, the Owls have the better win, topping USF on the road while UConn pummeled Southern Miss. Temple wins at home.
Rice @ East Carolina- The Owls lead the series 3-2, winning the last 2, but those were played in 2010 and 2023, and they are 0-2 in Greenville. The Pirates are 2-2 and were off last week, so this will be their conference opener. Rice is 1-4/0-1, with no FBS wins, but 2 of their 4 losses were by 7 points or less. Expect the Owls to put up a fight, but ECU wins.
Maryland @ Ohio State- The Buckeyes have won all 9 meetings with the Terrapins, with only 1 closer than 13 points (52-51 in 2018). 7 of the 9 wins have been by at least 20 points. That means that it's time for the Terps to break that streak! In my UPSET SPECIAL... Just kidding! OSU crushes Maryland.
Tennessee @ Arkansas- The Volunteers lead the series 14-7, owning victories in the 1971 Liberty Bowl and the 1990 Cotton Bowl, and 34-31 last season, but the Razorbacks have won 4 of the last 5 (since 2011). UT is 4-1/1-1, losing to Texas by 3 before beating Auburn last week. The Hogs are 2-3/0-2, being routed by both Georgia and Texas A&M. Vols win big,
San Diego State @ Oregon State- The Beavers lead 5-2, winning the last 5 (since 2000), with both of SDSU's wins coming in 1972 and 1975. Interestingly, the losing team has only scored more than 9 once (a 34-30 OSU win in 2013) while the winning team has scored at least 17 in all 7 contests. Both teams are 1-0 in the Pac 12. The Aztecs have lost 4 road games in a row, and 16 of their last 21 away from home. Beavers win.
LSU @ Kentucky- The Tigers lead this series 40-17-1, but each team's most recent victory has been vacated, in 2014 and 2021. The Bayou Bengals have won 6 of the last 8 (since 2000). These teams played in 1949 and 1950, then every year from 1952-2002, but have only met 5 times since. Both teams are 4-1 overall, but LSU is 1-1 in the SEC while UK is 2-1. The Wildcats have wins at Texas A&M (by 10) and at South Carolina, with a home loss to Alabama. The Tigers have a win over Texas A&M (by 29) and a loss at Ole Miss. I actually expect this to be a competitive game, but LSU simply out-talents the Cats. Tigers win this catfight.
UAB @ Memphis- The Blazers lead The Battle for the Bones 11-7, winning 31-24 last season, but the Tigers have won 3 of the last 4 (since 2012). UAB is off to a decent start at 3-2/1-0 with a win over Navy. Memphis is 4-1/1-0 on the young season, winning at Charlotte last week. I think the Tigers are one of the better teams in the American Conference. Memphis wins.
Nevada @ UTEP- The Wolf Pack have a 3-1 lead in the series, winning the last 3 (between 2001 and 2019), with the Miners claiming a victory in the original contest in 2000. The teams are a combined 2-7/0-2, with only Nevada having an FBS win. The Wolf Pack were also off last weekend. Nevada wins.
North Dakota State @ UNLV- These teams have played 3 times before, all in Las Vegas, with the first meeting in 1971 ending in a 17-17 tie, the Bison winning in 1972, and the Rebels claiming victory in 1977. UNLV has had an up-and-down start to their season with wins at Hawaii and Akron and one at home vs Cal last week. Their losses were to Memphis and at North Texas. NDSU is 5-0/2-0, winning 4 games by at least 21 points each. Their only close win was 38-32 at Air Force. The Bison are a quality team, but this will be their toughest test to date. The Rebels win a close one.
Coastal Carolina @ Marshall- The Chanticleers have a 3-1 lead in the series, but they are 1-1 in Huntington. The Thundering Herd are 3-2, but 0-1 in the Sun Belt after a loss at James Madison. CCU is 1-4 and also 0-1 in the SBC, losing to Georgia Southern last week. Masrshall wins.
Georgia @ Alabama- This is the game of the week, as it features teams ranked #1 and #2 in my Power Rankings. The Crimson Tide have a large 45-27-4 lead in this series, winning 10 of the last 12 (since 2008), with 4 of those wins in the SEC CG and 1 in the 2018 National Championship Game (2017 season). UGA's 2 wins have come in last year's SEC CG and in the 2022 National Championship Game (2021 season). In fact, the Dawgs haven't beaten Bama in the regular season since 2007, which is also the last time they won in Tuscaloosa. Having said that, realize they've only played in Tuscaloosa twice since then, and only 5 times in the regular season overall. Both teams come into this game undefeated and 3-0 in the SEC, and the winner, of course, would have the inside track to the SEC CG. The loser will still have much to play for, as a CFP bid will most definitely still be on the table. Seven of the last 13 meetings between these teams have been decided by 7 points or less, as a true rout is pretty uncommon. All week I've been leaning toward Alabama, not because I think they are the better team, but because I think they are inside UGA's heads. Bama wins a close one to knock the Dawgs down a peg. But I sure hope I'm wrong...
USC @ Penn State- The Trojans lead the series 6-5, but the Nittany Lions lead 4-2 in games played in the regular season. The other matchups were in the 1923 Rose Bowl (14-3 USC), 1982 Fiesta Bowl (26-10 PSU), and the 2009/2017 Rose Bowls, both won by USC (38-24, then 52-49). This is Penn State's annual White-Out game, but they have stumbled each of the last 2 weeks. The Men of Troy win to drop the Lions into an 0-3 Big Ten hole.
Syracuse @ Virginia- this series is tied 3-3, with the Cavaliers winning 3 of the last 4 (since 2004), but the Orange won the last meeting in 2022. Record-wise, these teams appear even, but talent-wise, it's not close. Wahoos win.
Air Force @ Northern Illinois- The Falcons and Huskies are playing on the gridiron for the first time ever. This is NIU's opener in their new conference, and they are a miserable 0-4, but they were off last week. The AFA is coming off a big win over Navy, so they could be ripe for an upset. Don't think so. The Falcons soar over the Huskies.
James Madison @ Georgia Southern- The Eagles lead the series 9-3, but the Dukes have won 2 of the last 3 (since 2023). This contest is rarely close, as only 2 of 12 wins feature a margin of victory of less than 13 points. Georgia Southern has played pretty well so far, and they should give JMU a challenge, but the Dukes will pull away in the 2nd half.
Louisiana @ La Tech- The Bulldogs have a huge 48-33-6 lead in this series, winning the last 8 (between 1997 and 2015). The record also includes a Louisiana forfeit in 1920, listed as a score of 1-0. It's a good thing to finally have these 2 in the same conference, as LT joined the Sun Belt this season. UL is 4-1/1-0 with their only loss at USC and a narrow win over Arkansas State. The Bulldogs are 2-2 with losses at LSU and at Baylor and a narrow win over Army, so this is their SBC opener. The Ragin' Cajuns will finally break their long series losing streak and get back on the positive side of the series ledger. Louisiana wins.
Minnesota @ Purdue- The Golden Gophers lead the series 42-35-3, winning 9 of the last 12, but the Boilermakers have won 2 of the last 3, and are 4-3 in the last 7 played in West Lafayette (since 2010). Both teams are coming off big wins, with Minnesota claiming the Little Brown Jug from Michigan and Purdue ending a 19-game Big Ten losing streak with a victory over Illinois last week. However, the Gophers are the better team and will win this easily.
Kansas @ Utah- The Utes lead the series 3-2, winning the last 3 matchups. The Jayhawks won the 1st 2, in 1950 and 1951, with Utah's wins coming in 1993, 1996, and 31-21 last season. KU is 2-2/0-1, all at home. The Utes are 4-0/1-0 and are coming out of their off week. Utah wins.
Boise State @ Fresno State- The Broncos hold a 17-10 advantage over the Bulldogs, but FS has won the last 3 (since 2022), and 3 of the last 4 played in Boise. In addition, the Bulldogs also have win in the 2018 and 2022 Mountain West Championship Games, and won 30-7 in the regular season last year, with BSU owning wins in the 2014 and 1017 MWC CG. Both teams are off to a 4-1/1-0 start, with the Broncos losing at Oregon by 7 and routing Utah State and the Bulldogs losing at USC and routing Washington State. This could be one of the best games this weekend, and probably one very few will watch. Broncos win.
Hawaii @ Arizona State- I mistakenly thought the Rainbow Warriors were going to be good this year, but they are only 1-4. Arizona State was also supposed to be decent, but they just got destroyed by a mediocre Baylor team. The Sun Devils lead the series 5-2, but UH has won the last 2- in 1979 and in the 2006 Hawaii Bowl. ASU wins big.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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