Paul's Picks 2026 Week 8
Welcome Back!
I had an absolutely brutal week, perhaps the worst I've ever had that wasn't the bowl season or a week with few games (like Week Zero or conference championship weekend). The problem was that there were many upsets. That's not entirely true; I picked quite a few upsets, but they were all the wrong ones! I finished at 37-25 for a winning percentage of 59.6%. Overall, I am 396-114, or 77.6%, another drop of 2.5% from the week before. There is no way I was going to sustain 80% for the year, but now it'll be difficult to stay above 75% this year. I was hoping I had a big enough cushion built up, but I've lost 5% off my percentage in just 2 weeks. There are only 56 games in total this week, 6 less than last week. By and large, conference contests are the majority of the games this week, which makes picking a winner that much more difficult (as I just demonstrated...). And I'm off to another slow start at 2-2. Sigh...
There are some good games this weekend, so... on with the picks!
Thursday, October 22
James Madison @ Appalachian State- The Mountaineers lead the series 14-6, with 2 of those wins in the Division I-AA playoffs (1995 & 2007), but the teams are 2-2 at the FBS level, and 1-1 at each team's home stadium. The Dukes are the only 7-0 team in FBS, and one of only 6 undefeated teams in the FBS. I think they stay that way. JMU wins.
Liberty @ Kennesaw State- The Owls are 3-2 against the Flames, winning the last 3, including their 1st ever win at the FBS level in 2024, but KSU is just 1-5/0-2 this year with their only win over an FCS squad. However, they were 0-6 with a loss to an FCS team when they got that 1st FBS win, so the situation is not dissimilar. LU is 5-1/2-0 this year, but they were 5-0 back in 2024 when the Owls won. Can history repeat itself? My brain says no while my heart says yes. I'll go with my brain (though they both let me down last week...). Flames burn the Owls.
East Carolina @ Memphis- The Pirates lead the series 18-8, winning the last 3 (since 2021), and they are 4-1 in Memphis since 2007. The Tigers are 5-2/2-1 while going 3-0 at home. ECU is only 3-3/1-1 and 1-2 on the road, including a loss at UAB last week. Memphis wins.
Friday, October 23
Duke @ Virginia- The Cavaliers lead the series 42-35 (no ties!), winning 9 of the last 11, including 34-17 in Durham last year, but the Blue Devils got revenge in the ACC Championship Game with a 27-20 victory to knock UVA out of any chance at the CFP. But Duke hasn't won in Charlottesville since 2013, losing 6 in a row in Scott Stadium. The Blue Devils started the season 4-0, but have lost their last 2 at GT and to UNC at home. The Hoos are 4-3/2-2, losing 2 of their last 3, but are 4-0 at home. UVA wins a close one.
UMass @ UConn- This series that began in 1897 is tied at 38-38-2, with the Huskies winning the last 3, and 10 of the last 14 (since 1994). The Minutemen started the season like a house afire, opening 4-0, but have lost their last 3, but are 2-1 on the road. UConn is 3-3, only 1-2 at home- both losses to P4 teams- and had an off week last weekend. The Huskies prevail for their 4th consecutive win in the series.
Army @ Tulsa- The Golden Hurricane lead this brief series 2-1 with the visiting team winning each contest. The Black Knights come into this 4-2/2-1 and 1-1 on the road (loss at La Tech). Tulsa is 4-3/1-2 and 2-1 at home, with the only loss in OT to North Texas. The Hurricane has already lost to Navy, and they'll have similar problems with Army. Black Knights win.
Air Force @ Wyoming- The Air Force Academy leads the series 32-28-3, winning 4 of the last 6, but the Cowboys haven't lost to the Falcons in Laramie since 2012, a string of 5 wins in a row for Wyoming. The Cowboys are 4-3/3-1, already matching last season's 4 wins, and are 3-0 at home. The Falcons are 5-1/3-1, 2-0 on the road and on a 4-game winning streak. Air Force wins.
NC State @ Stanford- The Wolfpack own a 59-28 win in the only prior meeting in 2024, but that one was in Raleigh. The Cardinal are 3-4/1-3, but 3-0 at home, but 2 are against Hawaii and an FCS foe. NCSU is 3-3/1-2 and 0-2 on the road at Virginia and Vandy. I have no confidence in Stanford, but the Wolfpack doesn't travel well, as they've lost 6 consecutive road games. Stanford wins.
Saturday, October 24
Pittsburgh @ Miami, Fl - The Hurricanes have dominated this series, leading 30-12-1, but the Panthers won the last time they played in Hard Rock Stadium in 2022. Pitt started the season 5-0 but have lost 2 straight after QB in a win over Va Tech. Miami wins big.
Indiana @ Michigan- The big question is how the Hoosiers respond to their 1st loss since the 2024 season. Unsurprisingly, the Wolverines have a huge lead in the series, 62-11, with IU winning 2 of the last 5. However, the Hoosiers haven't won in Michigan Stadium since 1967, which equals 22 losses in a row in The Big House. UM (4-2/1-2) righted the ship after their off week with a win over Penn State and are 4-1 at home, while Indiana is 6-1/3-1 and 2-0 on the road to extend their road winning streak to 7 in the regular season, and have won 10 of their last 11 away from Memorial Stadium in the regular season. Hoosiers win- finally!- at Michigan.
Texas Tech @ Cincinnati- These teams have only played twice, both in Lubbock, with a 10-10 tie in 1968 and a 44-41 victory for the Red Raiders in 2024. TTU is 6-0/3-0, 2-0 on the road as part of a 5-game road winning streak, and have won 9 of their last 10 away from Jones AT&T Stadium. The Bearcats are 4-2 but only 1-2 in the Big 12, losing their last 2, but they are 4-0 at home. Last year, UC started the season 7-1, but lost their last 4, including their bowl game to Navy. The Red Raiders win, but I expect the Bearcats to put up a good fight.
LSU @ Auburn- The Bayou Bengals lead this series 33-24-1, but 3 of those wins have been vacated (2012, 2013, and 2015). LSU has won the last 2, and 12 of the last 17 (since 2007), and with the War Eagles coming off a huge emotional win, they may struggle to get back in the groove. The AU Tigers are 4-2/2-2, winning 2 of their last 3, but are only 2-1 at home (1-1 in the SEC). The LSU Tigers are 5-2/2-2, but 0-2 on the road, which gives me a bit of pause. However, both of those losss went down to the wire, and one was in OT. LSU wins on The Plains.
California @ SMU- The Mustangs lead this long and storied rivalry 2-1, winning in 1957 and in 2024, but the Golden Bears won 38-35 last year in Berkeley. The Ponies are 5-1/3-1 and 4-0 at home (8-game home winning streak) while Cal is 3-4/2-2 and 1-1 on the road (1-0 in the ACC). SMU wins.
Rutgers @ Northwestern- The Scarlet Knights have a 4-2 lead in the series, winning 24-7 in their last meeting in 2023, and they are 1-1 in Evanston. The Wildcats are 5-1/2-1, 4-0 at home, and have played well against everyone except at Michigan State last week. Rutgers is 2-4/1-2, 1-1 on the road (both against P4 competition), and just got their 1st FBS win at Maryland last week. NU wins big.
West Virginia @ TCU- This is a fascinating matchup, as the Horned Frogs have an outstanding defense (allowing just 13.2 ppg versus FBS opposition) and a mediocre offense (16.2 ppg), while the Mountaineers are averaging over 35 ppg on offense (vs FBS) while giving up 38.5 ppg. WVU leads the series 8-6, including a win in their 1st meeting in the 1984 Bluebonnet Bowl, but TCU has won 2 of the last 3. Interestingly, the Frogs haven't won in Fort Worth since 2017, and are only 2-4 in Amon G. Carter Stadium against the Mountaineers. TCU is just 3-3/1-2, and 2-1 at home (7-point loss to BYU) while WVU is 4-3/1-3 and 0-1 in true road games (neutral site win over Virginia) with a loss at Iowa State. Will TCU be able to stop the Mountaineers? Can the Frogs score enough? I'll go with TCU at home, but I'm not confident at all.
Rice @ FAU- This series is tied at 3 wins apiece, with the FAU Owls winning 3 of the last 4, including 27-21 last year, and they are 1-0 in Boca Raton (but 0-1 in Fort Lauderdale). The Rice Owls are 1-6/0-3 with no FBS wins while FAU is 3-0 at home. FAU wins this Owl fight.
Western Michigan @ Toledo- These may be the 2 best teams in the MAC. Begun in 1939, the Rockets lead the series 46-33 (yet another with no ties!), but the Broncos have won 2 of the last 3, though their last win in the Glass Bowl was in 2015. WMU is 5-2/3-0 with losses at Michigan (controversially) and against Boise State at home, so they are 3-1 on the road. Toledo is also 5-2, but only 2-1 in the MAC, losing at Michigan State and against Buffalo at home. The Broncos are allowing just under 13 ppg in MAC games while scoring 26.3 ppg, and the Rockets average is 27 ppg on offense and 20.3 ppg allowed. Should be a good game! WMU wins a close one.
Baylor @ Kansas- There are always a few teams each year I just can't get right; when I pick them to win, they lose, and when I pick against them, they win. The Bears are one of those teams this year. They lead this series 19-4, winning the last 14, but all 4 of KU's victories have come in Lawrence. It's just the last one was in 2007. Baylor is 4-2/2-1 and 1-0 in true road games (loss to Auburn by 1 point in Atlanta in the opener) while the Jayhawks are 2-4/0-3 and 2-2 at home. Baylor wins, which I hope isn't the kiss of death for the Bears.
Akron @ Kent State- The Zips lead the series 37-29-2, and 2 of the last 3, including the last time they played in Dix Stadium, but the Golden Flashes have won 5 of the last 7 with a 42-35 OT win last season in Akron. KSU is 2-5/1-2 and 2-1 at home (1-1 in the MAC), but are on a 3-game slide. Akron is worse, at 1-6/0-3 with their only win of the FCS variety. The Flashes need 4 more wins to become bowl eligible, and a loss here would virtually seal a 5th consecutive losing record. The Zips are playing purely for pride, but this may be one of just 2 chances at an FBS win this season. KSU wins a close one.
Miami, Oh @ Central Michigan- The Redhawks have a narrow 17-13-1 lead in this competitive series, winning the last 5 (since 2016) to take the lead, but each has a win over the other in the MAC Championship Game, Miami in 2019 and the Chippewas in 2007. CMU is 3-4/1-2, and they are 3-1 at home with the only loss last week to rival WMU. The Redhawks are 4-3/2-1, but 1-0 on the road in the MAC (at UMass). The Chippewas have scored more than 14 points just twice while Miami has 20 or more against every opponent except Pitt. Redhawks win.
Oregon @ Illinois- The Fighting Illini won the 1st encounter in 1970, but the Ducks have won the other 3, in 1993, 1995, and 2004. The teams are each 1-1 in Champaign. UO has had a disappointing season, by their standards, as they sit at 4-2/2-1 and are 0-1 in their only foray outside the Pacific Time Zone (loss at Oklahoma State). Illinois, at 3-3/1-2, is only 2-2 at home, but they did have a bye last week. The Quack Attack rides again.
BYU @ UCF- The Cougars have won 3 of the 4 meetings with the Knights including a win in the 2020 Boca Raton Bowl. This year, BYU is one of 6 unbeaten teams, but are coming off a huge win over Notre Dame, and could be vulnerable to an upset. UCF is 3-3/1-2 and 3-0 at home, and were off last week. All the signs are pointing to a Knights victory, but I think the Cougars do just enough to win.
Michigan State @ UCLA- The Bruins are another of the 6 unbeaten teams and are even 2-0 without their starting QB. The Spartans won the 1st 3 contests with UCLA, including the 1st 2 in the 1954 and 1956 Rose Bowls (1953 and '55 seasons) and in 1965 in East Lansing, but the Bruins have won the last 4, starting with their own Rose Bowl win in 1966 (1965 season) and continuing with victories in 1973 and 1974 and 38-13 last season. MSU is 2-5/0-4, one of 3 winless teams in the Big Ten, and they are 0-2 on the road as they have lost 11 consecutive games away from Spartan Stadium, and 21 of their last 24. I don't see the Spartans changing that trend this week. UCLA wins big.
Tennessee @ South Carolina- The Volunteers have a 29-11-2 lead in the series, winning 4 of the last 5 (though 2 of those wins, in 2019 and 2020, have been vacated) including 41-20 last season, but the Gamecocks have won 3 of the last 4 played in Columbia. UT is 6-1/3-1 and 2-0 on the road as they are coming off a big win over Rival Alabama. SC is 3-3/1-3 and 2-2 at home, but are coming out of their off week after a big win over Florida (who just beat the team the Vols lost to: Texas). Tennessee simply needs to avoid a letdown, but that is obviously easier said than done, and the Gamecocks really need this win if they hope to get to 6 wins and bowl eligibility. UT wins.
Texas A&M @ Alabama- The Crimson Tide hold a commanding 13-3 lead in this series, winning the last 2 and even have a win in their 1st meeting in the 1942 Cotton Bowl (1941 season), but the Aggies have their own Cotton Bowl victory, in 1968 (1967 season). The other TAMU wins came in 2012 and 2021, and all 3 victories were by 4 points or less. Meanwhile, the Tide have 8 double-digit wins out of their 13. The Aggies are 4-3/1-3, and 0-2 on the road, and they've won 2 of their last 3 games. Alabama is 5-2/3-2, losing their last 2, and are 3-1 at home. The Tide rolls and gets back on track to at least temporarily save their season.
Iowa @ Minnesota- The Golden Gophers lead the series 63-54-2, but the Hawkeyes have been chipping away at that lead, winning 20 of the last 25, including the last 2 (41-3 last year). In fact, Minnesota hasn't won at home since 2014. Iowa is 5-1/2-1 and 2-0 on the road, losing only to Ohio State at home. The Gophers are 4-2/2-1 and 3-1 at home, but lost to Purdue last time out. Both teams were off last week, and both have defeated Michigan and Washington. The Hawkeyes win again and retain good ol' Floyd of Rosedale.
Oklahoma @ Mississippi State- The Sooners and Bulldogs will be playing for the first time ever, and as long as both of these teams have been around, it's amazing that they never even played in a bowl game. OU is 3-3/1-2 but are 0-2 on the road, but do have a neutral site win over Texas. MSU is 4-2/2-2 losing their last 2 games, and are 2-1 at home. Much depends on the availability of Bulldogs QB Kamario Taylor, who is listed as day-to-day, but even if he is available, how effective can he be at less than 100%? The Sooners have scored more than 14 points just twice, 51 against woeful UTEP and 27 in the win over Texas (only 1 offensive TD), but their defense has been very good. MSU's offense was really rolling until Taylor got hurt, scoring at least 31 in each of their 1st 4 games. Flip a coin on this one, but both teams will be 4-3 after OU comes out with the win, probably due to a special teams play.
Boston College @ Georgia Tech- The Yellow Jackets lead the series 8-5, winning 36-34 last year, but the Eagles have won 3 of the last 4 (since 2020), and 4 of the last 5 played in Atlanta (since 1998). GT is having a miserable season at 2-4/1-2 and are only 2-2 at home with one of those wins over FCS Mercer. BC is 3-3/1-2 and 0-2 on the road, but 2 of their losses were by 9 points or less each, and they are coming off a win over Pitt and maybe have some momentum. Eagles win.
North Texas @ Navy- The Midshipmen won the 1st 2 contests with the Mean Green, but UNT won 31-17 last season in Denton. Navy is 2-4/1-3 so far, which is way below the preseason expectations, but they are 2-0 at home with a win over Tulsa. The Mean Green are 4-2/2-0 and 1-2 on the road, and also have a win over Tulsa, though that one was on the road and in OT. While the records don't indicate it, these teams are a lot closer in talent, but I'm rolling the dice with UNT to get the win on the road.
Hawaii @ Northern Illinois- The Rainbow Warriors and the Huskies are 2 of the worst teams in college football, as they are a combined 1-12 overall and 0-6 in the Mountain West Conference. NIU is losing by an average of 21.5 ppg with their closest FBS loss being by 18 points (lost to FCS team by 4). UH doesn't play an FCS team, so their 1 win is over New Mexico State. The only thing the Huskies have going for them is that the game is in DeKalb, and the Warriors generally do not fare well on the Mainland (5 straight losses), but Hawaii will win this 1st time meeting.
Sacramento State @ Ball State- The Cardinals will rout the Hornets in this 1st ever meeting.
Bowling Green @ Buffalo- The Falcons own a 13-9 lead in the series, winning the last 2 played in Buffalo, but the Bulls have won 6 of the last 8 overall (since 2017). BGSU is 2-5 and Buffalo is 4-3. but both are 2-1 in the MAC. Interestingly, each has a win over one of the top teams, with the Falcons taking down Miami in Miami and the Bulls winning at Toledo. BGSU is only 1-2 on the road, but both losses were to P4 teams. Buffalo is 3-1 at home with their lone loss against MAC favorite WMU by just 3 points. The Bulls win a close one.
Kansas State @ Arizona State- The Sun Devils hold a 6-1 edge in the series with the Wildcats getting their only win in the 2002 Holiday Bowl. Only one of their matchups has been since that bowl contest, a 24-14 victory for ASU in 2024 in Manhattan. All of the other meetings were between 1964 and 1989. KSU is 4-2/1-2 and 0-1 on the road with their one Big 12 win over rival Kansas last week. The Sun Devils are 3-3/1-2 and 2-1 at home with their one win also over Kansas, though that one was in London. Wildcats win.
Eastern Michigan @ Ohio- The Bobcats lead the series 22-12-1, winning the last 4, and 13 of the last 15 (since 1996), but EMU's last win in the series came in Athens in 2016. The Eagles are 4-4/3-1 and are the only team to have played 8 games, as they are 2-2 on the road with both losses at Big Ten teams. Ohio is 5-2/3-0 and 3-0 at home with a loss at Nebraska and another at South Alabama. Both teams have a win against new FBS and MAC member Sacramento State, but the Bobcats got there's on the road. Ohio wins a close one.
ULM @ Troy- The Trojans lead the series 13-9-1, winning 5 of the last 7, including 37-14 last year, but the Warhawks won the last time they played in Troy. ULM is winless, even losing to an FCS team in week 3 while Troy is 3-3/1-1, but 3-0 at home. Trojans win big.
San Jose State @ Nevada- The Wolf Pack have doubled up the Spartans, leading the series 24-12-2, winning the last 4 played in Reno, including a 55-10 victory last year (yes, they're playing in Mackay Stadium for a 2nd season in a row following 2 straight years in San Jose), but the Spartans have won 2 of the last 3. SJSU is 4-3/2-1 and 3-1 on the road with their only road loss at USC in their opener. Nevada is 2-4/1-2 and only 1-2 at home. Both teams have a win over MWC bottom dweller UTEP by similar scores, and both in El Paso. Flip a coin. Spartans win.
Louisiana @ Southern Miss- The Ragin' Cajuns won the 1st 7 meetings with the Golden Eagles, from 1923 to 1930, but have won only 5 times since as USM leads the series 42-12-1, winning 12 of the last 13 (since 1994). However, UL won the last time they played in Hattiesburg, in 2024. The Eagles also have a win in the 2016 New Orleans Bowl. The Cajuns are 5-2/2-1 and 1-2 on the road (loss at USC while USM is 1-5/0-2 with no FBS wins. UL wins big.
ODU @ La Tech- The Monarchs own two 3-point wins over the Bulldogs, in 2014 and 2021, but those were both played in Norfolk. ODU is 2-5/1-3 and 1-2 on the road. LT is 4-2/2-0, and 3-0 at home as they are riding a 5-game home winning streak. Bulldogs win the 1st crossover game of the season in the Sun Belt Conference.
Boise State @ Washington State- The Cougars lead the series 5-2, but 4 of their wins came between 1997 and 2001. The Broncos have won 2 of the last 3, in 2016 and 2024, sanwiched around a Wazzu win in 2017. BSU has never won in Pullman in 3 tries, so this will be their 1st. The Broncos romp on the Palouse.
San Diego State @ Colorado State- The Aztecs own a 23-15 advantage in this series, winning 11 of the last 14, including 45-24 last year, but the Rams won the last time they met in Fort Collins. SDSU is 3-4/2-1, pulling off an upset over Fresno State last week, but they are 0-3 on the road this season and have lost 6 in a row away from Snapdragon Stadium. CSU is 2-4/0-2, and while they are 2-2 at home, they've allowed 41 points or more in each of their last 4 games overall (222 points, or 55.5 ppg!). Aztecs win.
Colorado @ Oklahoma State- The Buffaloes lead the series 27-20-1, winning the last meeting 52-0 in 2024, but the Cowboys have won 3 of the last 4 (since 2008), including in the 2016 Alamo Bowl. The Buffs are 2-4/0-3 and 1-2 on the road, but are on a 4-game skid. OSU is 4-2/2-1, 3-0 at home, and are coming off a 3-point loss at Houston. CU had their own 3-point loss last week to undefeated Utah, so they may have made some adjustments during their off week the week before, but the Cowboys will round up the Buffaloes and win this at home.
Virginia Tech @ Clemson- The Tigers have doubled up the Hokies, leading the series 24-12-1, mostly on the strength of 7 straight wins since 2011 that includes 2 victories in the ACC CG in 2011 and 2016. VT does have its own big win, topping Clemson in the 2001 Gator Bowl, and they've won 2 of the last 3 played in Memorial Stadium. The Tigers are 4-2/2-1 and 3-1 at home with the only loss to Miami. The Hokies are 5-2/2-2 and 2-1 on the road, with wins at Maryland and BC and a loss at Cal. CU wins.
Georgia State @ Arkansas State- The Red Wolves are 7-2 in the series, but the teams are 2-2 over the past 4 meetings (since 2019). The Panthers are 4-2/1-1 and 1-2 on the road with losses at UCF and JMU. ASU is 3-4/1-2 and 2-1 at home, losing to South Alabama. GSU has never won in Jonesboro in 4 tries, but they are part of the tougher East Division in the SBC. Panthers win.
Ole Miss @ Texas- The Longhorns are 6-2 against the Rebels, but one of Mississippi's 2 wins has been vacated (the last meeting, in 2013). UT's wins have come in 1912, 1914, 1925, 2012, and in the 1962 Cotton Bowl and the 1966 Bluebonnet Bowl. The Rebels got their non-vacated win in the 1958 Sugar Bowl. Ole Miss is 5-1/3-1 and 2-1 away from Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, with one of the wins at a neutral site. The Horns are 4-2/1-2 and 3-1 at home, but they're on a 2-game losing streak. Both teams own a loss to Florida with UT losing at home and the Rebels losing in The Swamp. The Longhorns really need this win, though it's possible they could still make the CFP with 3 losses because of their wi over current #1 Ohio State. Ole Miss needs this win to keep pace in the SEC as they have a tough remaining schedule. Rebels win by, say, a score of 27-24...
Vanderbilt @ Kentucky- The Wildcats have a narrow 49-45-4 lead in this series, with one of those wins vacated (2021), but the Commodores have won the last 2, and also the last 2 played in Lexington. VU has fallen back to Earth a bit after the heights they reached the last 2 years, so they would like nothing better than to take UK down for a 3rd consecutive time. But the 'Dores are just 3-4/0-4, losing each of their last 4, and are 0-2 on the road. The Cats are flying high with their 6-1/4-1 record and are 3-1 at home, with their only loss to Alabama. UK wins big.
USC @ Wisconsin- The Trojans have won 7 of 8 contests with the Badgers, including wins in the 1953 and 1963 Rose Bowls, with Wisconsin's only victory coming in the 2015 Holiday Bowl. USC is even 2-0 in Madison, claiming wins in 1956 and 1965. The Men of Troy are 6-1/3-1, and 2-0 on trips to the Midwest/East Coast. UW is 4-2/2-1 and 3-0 at home. USC wins a close one.
Iowa State @ Arizona- The Wildcats lead the series 4-2-1, but the Cyclones have won the only one played since 1968: 39-14 last year in Ames. The other 6 meetings all took place between 1948 and 1968, with all but the last one in Tucson, as the Cats are 3-1-1 at home in the series. ISU is 3-3/1-2 and 0-2 on the road. Arizona is 5-1/2-1 and 3-0 at home. Wildcats win.
Syracuse @ North Carolina- The Tar Heels have a 5-3 advantage in the series, winning each of the last 3 (since 2020), all by at least 17 points. I expect much the same in this one. UNC wins big over the Orange.
Utah State @ Texas State- The Aggies crushed the Bobcats 38-7 in Logan back in 2012, their only previous matchup. This year, USU is 2-4/1-1 and 0-3 on the road, but those losses were at Washington, Utah, and Boise State, so that's not surprising. TSU is 3-3/1-1 and 3-1 at home with their lone loss to UTSA by 5. Bobcats win to stay in the race in their new conference.
UTSA @ Tulane- The Roadrunners have won 2 of 3 against the Green Wave, but both of those were at home, with the loss in New Orleans. Tulane is 3-3/1-1 and coming off a big win over Memphis as they are 3-0 at home. UTSA is 6-1/3-0 and 2-1 on the road (loss at Texas). The Roadrunners have slipped to 7-6 each of the last 2 years, but it looks like they're on the verge of returning to the 2021-23 era when they were at least 9-4 each year and a combined 32-9. UTSA wins a close one.
North Dakota State @ New Mexico- The Lobos and Bison will be meeting for the 1st time, and it's a big one. The winner will firmly establish themselves as the favorite in the Mountain West Conference and should have relatively smooth sailing the rest of the way, though UNM still has to host UNLV and Air Force. The Lobos are 5-1/2-0 and 3-0 at home with their only loss by 8 at Oklahoma. They have held every opponent to 18 points or less, and half to exactly 7 points. NDSU is 6-1/3-1 and 2-1 on the road (lost at UNLV), and their defense has been almost as good: 2 shutouts, and 5 of 6 foes to 17 points or less. This should be a low scoring game with lots of top-notch defensive play. Lobos win.
Houston @ Utah- The Cougars are 5-0 against the Utes, winning in 1966, 1971, 1977, 1978, and 2024, but only the '77 contest was in Salt Lake City. UH is 6-1/3-1 losing only at Texas Tech by 2 points, while Utah is 6-0/3-0, but coming off a slim 3-point win at Colorado. If the Utes can get by Houston, then they still have BYU and a game at Arizona before claiming a berth in the Big 12 title game. The Cougars need this for a quality win, as their rest of their schedule is not overly challenging. A loss here probably eliminates them from both the Big 12 CG and the CFP. I have a lot of respect for UH HC Willie Fritz, but I think Utah is the better team. Though the better team doesn't always win, the Utes are my pick.
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
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