Paul's Picks 2026 Week 9
Welcome Back!
I had another absolutely brutal week, even worse than last week, and perhaps the worst I've ever had that wasn't the bowl season or a week with few games (like Week Zero or conference championship weekend). I finished at 33-23 for a winning percentage of 58.9%. Overall, I am 429-137, or 75.8%, a drop of 1.8% from the week before. There is no way I was going to sustain 80% for the year, but now it'll be difficult to stay above 75% this year. I was hoping I had a big enough cushion built up, but I've lost 6.8% off my percentage in just 3 weeks. There are 56 games in total this week, the same as last week. By and large, conference contests are the majority of the games this week, which makes picking a winner that much more difficult (as I just demonstrated...). And I'm off to another slow start at 2-2. Sigh...
There are some good games this weekend, so... on with the picks!
Thursday, October 29
FAU @ North Texas- The Owls lead this series 8-7, including a win in the 2017 CUSA Championship Game, but the Mean Green have won the last 3 (since that CG), and 7 of the last 9 (since 2010). Both teams are 5-2 overall, but UNT is 3-0 in the American Conference, but those wins are against teams with a combined 7-15 record, and 3-9 in the conference. FAU is 2-1 in the conference, but the combined records of their opponents isn't much better: 8-14, and 5-9 within the American. This is a coin toss, so I;ll go with the Mean Green at home.
Troy @ James Madison- The Dukes lead the series 3-1, with wins in the 1994 Division I-AA Playoffs, 2023 in Troy, and in the 2025 Sun Belt Conference Championship Game. Troy's lone win came in the 1999 Division I-AA Playoffs in Troy, so the Trojans are 1-1 at home. Both teams were upset last week, JMU seeing their hopes for an undefeated season crash and burn at App State and the Trojans losing to previously winless ULM at home. Dukes win.
Friday, October 30
Tulane @ Charlotte- The Green Wave are 2-0 vs the 49ers, winning each of the last 2 years by a combined 61-3. I expect more of the same. Tulane wins big.
Baylor @ UCF- The Knights won the first meeting, in the 2014 Fiesta Bowl by a score of 52-42, but the Bears have won the 2 matchups since, 36-35 in 2023 in the Bounce House in Orlando, and 30-3 last year in McLane Stadium in Waco. Both teams are 4-3/2-2, but Baylor has lost 2 in a row and just fired HC Dave Aranda while UCF is coming off a huge upset win over BYU. If I've learned anything this year it's that teams coming off big, emotional wins tend to play poorly the next week. Of course, this game will probably be the one exception, but I'm going with the Bears anyway.
Kent State @ Sacramento State- The Golden Flashes and the Hornets will be meeting for the first time, but Sac State is off to a terrible start at the FBS level. KSU wins.
Saturday, October 31
Notre Dame @ Navy - This is one of the most lopsided series records of all time, with the Fighting Irish leading 84-13-1, though 2 of those wins- 2012 & 2013- have been vacated. ND has won the last 8, and 13 of the last 14 on the field, and though the Midshipmen won 3 out of 4 between 2007 and 2010, the Irish did not lose to Navy between 1964 and 2006, a string of 43 consecutive victories- more than half of their total wins in the series! The Midshipmen were expected to challenge for a spot in the CFP, but instead are just 2-5. ND wins big.
Arizona @ Texas Tech- The Red Raiders have a huge 27-5-2 lead in this series, but the teams are 2-2-1 in their last 5 contests, from 1979 to 2024. However, the Wildcats have only won in Lubbock once, and that was way back in 1935 as TT is 13-1 in the series at home. This is a crucial game in the Big 12, as both teams are 6-1/3-1, so it's basically an elimination game for both the Big 12 CG and the CFP. The Cats have lost only at BYU way back in Week 2, but the RedRaiders are coming off their 1st loss at Cincinnati. Arizona wins in an upset.
SMU @ Syracuse- The Mustangs have won both matchups with the Orange, but they were played almost a century apart: 16-6 in 1932, and 31-18 last year. This will be the first time they meet in Syracuse since that 1932 contest. Syracuse finally got an ACC win last week at UNC in OT, but SMU needs this win to keep pace at the top of the ACC. The Pony Express stampedes and crushes the Orange.
Wisconsin @ Iowa- This is one of the most even series in college football, as the Badgers lead 49-48-2, but the Hawkeyes have won the Heartland Trophy each of the last 4 years and haven't lost in Iowa City since 2018. Both teams are 5-2 overall, with Iowa 2-2 in the Big Ten and 3-1 at home, though they haven't played a game in Kinnick Stadium since losing to Ohio State on Oct 3. Wisconsin is 3-1 in the conference, but 1-2 away from Camp Randall Stadium, including a loss to Notre Dame in Green Bay in the opener. The Hawkeyes have lost 2 of their last 3, so they're looking to stop this midseason slide. As so often happens in the age of bloated conferences, they have had no common opponents. In a coin flip situation like this, I'll go with Iowa at home.
California @ NC State- The Wolfpack are 1-0 against the Golden Bears, winning 24-23 in 2024 in Berkeley. This year, Cal is 3-5/2-3 and 1-2 on the road. NCSU is 3-4/1-3, 3-1 at home, and will get a bump from their off week and after firing their longtime HC Dave Doeren. The Wolfpack take down the Bears.
Boston College @ Duke- The Eagles lead this series, begun in 1927, by a margin of 5-4, but the Blue Devils have won 3 of the last 4 (between 2011 and 2024). However, Duke is only 1-2 in Durham. The Blue Devils are 5-2 while BC is 4-3, but they are tied for 6th in the ACC at 2-2, and both still have hopes of making the CG. Duke is 3-1 at home, but have lost 2 of their last 3 overall. The Eagles are 1-2 on the road, but have won their last 2 games overall. BC wins in an upset.
Illinois @ Maryland- The Terrapins won the 1st 2 meetings, in 2018 and 2021, and the Fighting Illini have won the last 2, in 2023 and last season. Illinois is 4-3/2-2, winners of 2 in a row, and are 1-1 on the road. Maryland is 2-5/0-4, losers of 5 in a row, and fired HC Mike Locksley during their bye week. The Fighting Illini win.
UAB @ USF- The Bulls hold a 3-2 advantage in the series, winning the last 2, but are only 1-1 at home. The Blazers are 4-3/2-1, winning 3 of their last 4, and are 0-3 on the road, but were off last week. USF is 5-2/1-2 having lost 2 of their last 3, are 3-1 at home, and were also idle last week. Bulls win.
Bowling Green @ Western Michigan- The Falcons have a 35-20-3 edge in this series, winning the last 3 (since 2022), and have won 2 of the last 3 played in Kalamazoo. The Broncos are 5-3/3-1, dropping a close game at Toledo last week, and are 2-1 at home. BGSU is 2-2/2-2, 1-3 on the road, and have lost their last 2 contests. WMU wins big.
Michigan @ Rutgers- The Scarlet Knights won the very 1st contest between these teams, in 2014, but the Wolverines have won the next 9, and only 2 of those by less than 3 TDs. And while UM is 4-3 and Rutgers is 2-5, both teams are 1-3 in the Big Ten and are fighting to stay out of the basement. The Wolverines win, despite having lost 3 of their last 4 and being 0-1 away from Michigan Stadium.
Auburn @ Ole Miss- The Tigers hold a commanding 35-13 lead in the series, with a win by the Rebels in 2012 vacated. Ole Miss has won the last 2, but the War Eagles have won 33 of the last 41 (since the 1971 Gator Bowl win following the 1970 season). The Rebels have a victory in the 1965 Liberty Bowl, as these teams didn't play much before being thrust into the SEC West together in 1992, playing only 13 times in the 1st 58 years of the SEC, and 2 of those were in the aforementioned bowl games. The Plainsmen came tumbling down off their high last week after their momentous upset of UGA 2 weeks ago and are only 4-3/2-3. Mississippi is 5-2/2-2 and still in the thick of the SEC and CFP chases. The Rebels are 3-0 at home, the Tigers 2-1 away from Jordan-Hare Stadium. Ole Miss wins, probably by a lot.
Marshall @ ODU- The Thundering Herd have dominated this series so far, leading 10-1, including 48-24 last season, when the Monarchs finished 10-3 and Marshall was just 5-7. However, ODU's one win in the series was in Norfolk, in 2016. The Herd (4-3/1-2) thunders all over the Monarchs (2-6/1-4).
Kansas State @ Colorado- The Buffaloes lead this series 45-22-1, but the Wildcats have won the last 2, and 5 of the last 7 (since 2006). KSU is 4-3, but only 1-3 in the Big 12 and 0-2 on the road. The Buffs are 2-5/0-4, 0-2 at home vs FBS competition, and have lost 5 in a row. Cats win.
Coastal Carolina @ Georgia State- The Chanticleers hold a narrow 5-4 lead in the series, winning the last 2, and are 4-0 in Atlanta. The Panthers started the season 4-1, but have lost their last 2 and are just 1-2 in the SBC, but 2-0 in Center Parc Credit Union Stadium. CCU is 2-5/1-21-2 on the road, but had an off week last week. This could go either way, but I'll ride with GSU at home.
UConn @ Air Force- The Huskies defeated the Falcons 26-16 last season in their 1st ever meeting. UConn is 4-3 and 2-1 on the road while the AFA is 5-2 and 3-1 at home. The Huskies have won 2 in a row, but neither team they defeated is much of a powerhouse: Temple and UMass. The Falcons were upset by Wyoming last week, which broke a 4-game winning streak. Air Force wins a close one.
Temple @ East Carolina- The Pirates lead the series 13-9, winning the last 5, but are only 5-5 in the series in Greenville. The Owls are 2-5/1-2, losing their last 2, and are 1-1 on the road with a win at USF. ECU is a disappointing 3-4/1-2 and 2-1 at home, but are on a 2-game slide after losses at UAB and Memphis. The Pirates steal one at home.
La Tech @ South Alabama- The Bulldogs hold a 2-1 edge in the series, but the Jaguars won the most recent meeting in 2022, and the teams are 1-1 in Mobile. LT is 5-2/3-0 and leading the West Division as the only unbeaten team in conference play, and are 1-2 on the road with both losses at P4 foes. SA is 4-3/2-1, and 3-0 at home. This game could go a long way in determining the winner of the division. The Bulldogs prevail.
Stanford @ Louisville- The Cardinal defeated the Cardinals 38-35 in 2024, but this is the 1st time they will play in Louisville. UL is 4-3/3-2 and 3-0 at home; Stanford is 4-4/2-3 and 0-3 on the road. Seems obvious, but also looks like a trap to me. Don't overthink this. Go with the Cardinals (bird) over the Cardinal (color? tree?).
Florida vs. Georgia (Atlanta)- The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party will be held in Atlanta's Mercedes-Benz Stadium instead of Jacksonville, Florida due to renovations at the stadium there (next year it will be in Tampa). This is only the 2nd time since 1933 the game will not be in Jacksonville. The other hiatus was also due to construction/renovation, and so the teams played an actual home-and-home in 1994 and 1995. The Bulldogs lead the series 58-44-2, winning the last 5, and 8 of the last 9, and are 7-3-1 in games not played in Jacksonville. One interesting side note is that the Gators have scored exactly 20 points each of the last 4 years, and have scored more than that only once since 2017, a 44-28 win in 2020. The Dawgs are 6-1/4-1 and coming off their 1st loss of the season to Auburn at home. UF is 5-2/3-2, winning at Texas their last time out, but have lost 2 of their last 3. As usual, both teams were off last week. I would not be surprised at a Florida win, but I think UGA does just enough to pull it out.
Minnesota @ Indiana- The Golden Gophers lead this series 40-26-3, winning the last 4 (since 2008), but they last played in 2021. Each of Indiana's last 5 wins have come in Bloomington, stretching all the way back to 1994. Minnesota is 5-2/3-1 and 1-1 on the road winning at Washington but losing at Purdue. The Hoosiers are 7-1/4-1 and 4-1 at home, losing to Ohio State. IU wins, dropping the Gophers to 0-2 in the state of Indiana.
Arizona State @ BYU- The Sun Devils have a large lead in the series 21-8, winning the last matchup in 2024, but the Cougars have won 3 of the last 4 (since 1997). ASU is 4-3/2-2 and 1-2 away from home with a win in London over Kansas. BYU is 6-1/3-1, 4-0 at home, but coming off a loss at UCF. Cougars win big.
Northwestern @ Oregon- The teams have played twice before, both in Evanston, with the Wildcats winning in 1974 and the Ducks 34-14 last season. NU is 6-1/3-1 and 1-1 on the road, losing at Indiana. UO is 4-3/2-2 and 3-1 at home, dropping a 2-point contest to UCLA. The Cats are 0-2 on the West Coast the last 2 seasons while the Quack Attack is 7-1 vs Midwest teams. Oregon wins a close one.
Kansas @ TCU- The Horned Frogs have been dominant in this series, leading 27-9-4, and winning the last 5 (since 2019), and 11 of the last 12 (since 2012). The Jayhawks are 3-4/1-3 and 0-2 on the road, but are coming off an upset of Baylor. TCU is also 3-4/1-3, only 2-2 at home, and have lost 3 of their last 4 overall. Neither team has scored more than 25 points against a conference opponent, but the Frogs have allowed no more than 24 to Big 12 foes while the Jayhawks have allowed no less than 24. Since this can't end in a 24-24 tie, I'll go with TCU at home.
Colorado State @ Utah State- The Rams hold a slim 40-38-2 in this series, winning 42-37 in the last meeting in 2024, but the Aggies have won 5 of the last 6 (since 2018), and 5 of the last 6 played in Logan. CSU is 3-4/1-2 and 0-2 on the road, part of a 8-game road losing streak. USU is 2-5/1-2 and 2-1 at home with their lone loss to an FCS squad. Despite the recent history, I'll go with the Rams to end their road losing streak and eke out a win.
UTEP @ North Dakota State- The Bison will defeat the woeful Miners in this 1st ever meeting between the 2 Mountain West foes.
FIU @ Liberty- The Flames lead the brief series 3-1, but the Panthers won 34-27 last year. FIU is 3-4/1-2 and 0-3 on the road, and they have lost their last 2 games overall. LU is 6-1/3-0, with their only loss at James Madison. The Flames burn the Panthers.
Southern Miss @ ULM- The Golden Eagles lead the series 7-3 and are 2-1 in Monroe, but the Warhawks won the last time they played in Malone Stadium, in 2024. USM is 2-5/1-2 and 0-3 on the road, but the Eagles upset West Division favorite Louisiana last weekend in Hattiesburg. ULM is only 1-6/1-2 and got their own upset last week, winning at Troy for their 1st win of the season. Picking the winner of a game like this is just as much of a crapshoot as picking between 2 undefeated teams. USM wins a close one.
Utah @ Cincinnati- The Utes destroyed the Bearcats 45-14 last year in their only prior meeting. This year Utah is 7-0/4-0 and on a 13-game winning streak. UC is 5-2/2-2 and 5-0 at home, including an upset of Texas Tech last week. I'm not sure the Bearcats can pull of back-to-back upsets of undefeated teams, but I won't be surprised if it's close. The Utes win.
Virginia @ Wake Forest- The Cavaliers lead this series 35-18, and won the last time this game was played in Winston-Salem, but the Demon Deacons have won 6 of the last 7, since 2008. WF is 6-1/4-1 with their only loss against Miami at home. UVA is 4-4/2-3, losing their last 2, and 3 of 4, and are 0-3 away from Scott Stadium, including a neutral site loss to West Virginia in Charlotte. The Demon Deacons spank the Hoos.
New Mexico @ San Jose State- The Spartans have a commanding 16-5-1 lead in this series, winning each of the last 4 (since 2019), and 11 of the last 13 (since 1972), including a win in the 2006New Mexico Bowl. The Lobos haven't won in San Jose since 1969, though they did forge a 21-21 tie in 1971. SJSU is 4-4/2-2 but 0-3 at home against FBS opponents, and have lost2 of their last 3 overall. The Lobos are 6-1/3-0 and one of the favorites to grab the G6 spot in the CFP, if they can avoid losing to teams like this. UNM wins big.
Nevada @ UCLA- The 7-0 Bruins will cruise to victory to run their record against the 3-4 Wolf Pack to 2-0.
South Carolina @ Oklahoma- These 2 teams have met each of the last 2 seasons, with the visiting team winning each time. Could it happen again? The Sooners are 4-3/2-2 and 2-1 at home, winning 2 of their last 3 overall. The Gamecocks are 4-3/2-3 and 1-1 on the road, but are on a 2-game winning streak after a 3-game slide. SC wins a third in a row and knock OU out of any consideration for the CFP or SEC CG.
Purdue @ Penn State- The Nittany Lions have a huge 17-3-1 lead in the series, winning the last 11 (since 2005). The Boilermakers do have a win and a tie in State College, though the win came in 2004 and the tie was in 1952. Purdue is 3-4/2-2 and 1-1 on the road, but they may never have a better chance to break though than this year, as PSU is 3-4/0-4 and 2-2 at home. The Boilermakers win but will it be an upset or what's expected?
Appalachian State @ Georgia Southern- The Mountaineers have a 21-19-1 lead in this hotly contested rivalryand have a win in the 1987 Division I-AA playoffs, but the Eagles have gotten their revenge since, winning in the 2001 Division I-AA playoffs, as they have also won the last 3 meetings, including in the regular season last year and then in the Birmingham Bowl after the season. ASU is 5-2/2-1 and 2-1 on the road as they've won their last 2 overall. GS is 3-4/2-1winning 2 of their last 3, but are 0-2 in Paulson Stadium against FBS competition. App State wins.
Oklahoma State @ Iowa State- The Cowboys hold a 34-22-3 advantage in this series, but the Cyclones have won the last 220-13 last year in Stillwater. OSU is having a stellar season at 5-2/3-1 and are still in the Big 12 race, but are 1-2 on the road. ISU is 3-4/1-3, 3-1 at home, and are far out of the title chase. The Cowboys round up the Cyclones.
Clemson @ FSU- The Seminoles lead the series 21-17, but the Tigers have won the last 2, and 9 of the last 10 (since 2015). CU is 4-3/2-2 and 1-1 on the road, but have lost 2 of their last 3 overall. FSU is somehow worse at 3-4/1-3 and 3-1 at home, but lost their last 2 games at Louisville and Miami in 2 OT. I'm going to hold my nose and pick the Noles to win.
Washington State @ San Diego State- The Cougars lead the series 3-1, winning each of the last 2 years. The Aztecs are 3-5/2-2 losing 2 of their last 3, but they are 3-1 at home. Wazzu is 1-7/0-4 with their only win over an FCS team. SDSU wins big.
Miami, Fl @ North Carolina- Surprisingly, the Tar Heels lead this series 16-11 with 2 of those wins vacated, and they have won the last 5 meetings in a row, since 2019, but they last played in 2023. The Hurricanes are 7-0/5-0 and ranked #1 in the latest AP Poll, but their best win so far is at Wake Forest. UNC is 4-3/2-2 with their loss to Syracuse last week stopping a modest 2-game win streak and making them 0-2 at home against FBS foes. Canes wipe out the Heels.
Ohio State @ USC- This is an intriguing matchup, as the Trojans already have 2 losses, but the Buckeyes are basically starting over with a new QB due to the loss of starter Julian Sayin. USC leads the series 13-10-1, winning 7 of the last 8 (since 1975), but OSU won the last meeting in the 2017 Cotton Bowl. In fact, these teams have met in the Rose Bowl 7 times, including 3 in a row from 1973-75. The Buckeyes have Rose Bowl wins in 1955, 1969, and 1974, with the Trojans claiming victory in 1973, 1975, 1980, and 1985. OSU is 6-1/4-0 with their only loss at Texas. The Men of Troy are 6-2/3-2 and 4-1 at home, but were noncompetitive in a loss at Wisconsin last weekend. USC pulls a rabbit out of the hat and pulls the upset to further upend the CFB season.
Mississippi State @ Texas- The Longhorns lead the series 4-2, winning the last 3, including each of the last 2 years and in the 1999 Cotton Bowl. UT is 5-2/2-2 and 4-1 at home, and got back on the winning track by taking down the Ole Miss Rebels last week. The Bulldogs are 4-3/2-3, but just learned that they have lost QB Kamario Taylor for the rest of the season. Horns win big.
Georgia Tech @ Pittsburgh- The Panthers lad the series 12-6, winning 7 of the last 9 (since 2015) including 42-28 last year, but the Yellow Jackets won the last time they played at Pitt in 2022. In addition, the Jackets have the 2 biggest wins in the series, in the 1956 Sugar Bowl (1955 season) and the 1956 Gator Bowl. Pitt is 5-3/2-3 and 4-1 at home, but is on a 3-game slide since losing their QB for the season. GT is 2-5/1-3 and 0-2 on the road, and they've lost their last 2, including being routed by Boston College. Both teams appear to be in free fall, so flip a coin. The Panthers win at home, but I'm not at all confident about that assertion.
Missouri @ Arkansas- The Tigers lead this series 13-4, though their win in 2016 has been vacated. Mizzou also has a win in the 2008 Cotton Bowl, but the Razorbacks own a victory in the 2003 Independence. The Tigers have won the last 4 in the series, and 9 of the last 10, but UA's last 2 wins have been in Fayetteville. The Hogs are 3-4/1-3 and 2-2 at home, but got a win at Vandy before being idle last week. Mizzou is 5-2/2-2 and 1-2 away from Faurot Field, and had a loss at Ole Miss before their off week last week. Tigers win.
Washington @ Nebraska- The Cornhuskers hold a narrow 5-4-1 lead in this series, winning 4 of the last 5 (between 1997 and 2011), but the Huskies lone win in that span was in the 2010 Holiday Bowl. The Huskers are 2-1-1 in Lincoln, with the 6-6 tie in their 1st meeting in 1925 (bet that was a long train ride!). UW is 4-3/1-3 and 1-1 on the road, but they've lost 3 of their last 4. NU is 5-2/2-2, 4-1 at home, and have lost each of their last 2. Both teams were off last week. Nebraska wins.
Army @ Memphis- The Black Knights won the 1st meeting in 1985, but the Tigers have won all of the 4 matchups since, but those were between 1999 and 2002. Army is 5-2/4-1 and 3-0 on the road with their only loss in week 2 against USF. Memphis is 6-2/3-1, and 4-0 at home. This should be a close, competitive game between 2 evenly matched teams. Tigers win at home.
Texas State @ Boise State- The Broncos are 6-1/3-0 and 3-0 on the blue turf in Albertsons Stadium. The Bobcats are 4-3/2-1 and 0-2 on the road. BS wins this 1st ever meeting between the 2 squads.
Northern Illinois @ UNLV- The Huskies have won all 5 previous meeting with the Rebels, from 1987 to 2015, but UNLV will break that streak with a rout of NIU.
Oregon State @ Fresno State- The Bulldogs lead the series 9-6, with the home team winning 7 of the last 9 meetings from 1992 until last season. The Beavers are 5-2/3-0 and 2-1 on the road. OSU is also on a 5-game winning streak and need this win to keep pace with Boise State in the Pac 12. FS is 4-3/1-2 and 2-1 at home, but have lost their last 2. Both teams were off last week. The Beavers win a tough, hard fought game on a last minute FG.
Until next time, may you and your love 64-54-2d ones be blessed!
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