Power Rankings 10/6/26

Welcome Back!

Before we get into our regularly scheduled program, there is a game tonight! Here is my pick:

Tuesday, October 6

Southern Miss @ Troy- The Golden Eagles hold a narrow 8-7 edge in this series, including a 30-27 win in the 2008 New Orleans Bowl, but the Trojans have won the last 5 meetings, since 2021. This is the Sun Belt Conference opener for both teams, but Troy at least has an FBS win, even if that's over Sam Houston. HC Blake Anderson may eventually get USM rolling, but it won't be this year. The Trojans win a close one at home.

Power Rankings

The rankings continue to be volatile, but they did settle down a bit, and we still had some big movers: UMass dropped 48 spaces to #70, while FSU moved up the farthest with a +37 jump to #42. In other changes, Alabama moves into the top slot as the top 10 is completely jumbled around, save for Utah repeating at #10. Ohio State and James Madison move in, while Mississippi State and Florida drop out. In the top 25, New Mexico, Missouri, Wisconsin, Houston, and USC move in, while Virginia Tech, Iowa, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, and Cincinnati drop out. However, ULM remains at #138 (last), and they aren't very close to moving up.

What I want to address today is what the CFP bracket would look like according to my rankings. However, in order to do so, I have to make several assumptions, the first and most important being that the highest rated member of the conference will also be the conference champion. While that may not always be the case (see last year when Miami was ranked higher than ACC Champion Duke), we have to start somewhere.

#1 seed Alabama (SEC) would host the winner of  9 James Madison (G6) at 8 Indiana

#4 seed LSU would host the winner of 12 Mississippi State at 5 Texas

#2 seed Georgia would host the winner of 10 Utah (Big 12) at Notre Dame

#3 seed Miami (ACC) would host the winner of 11 Pittsburgh at 6 Ohio State (Big Ten)

The field consists of 5 teams from the SEC, 2 each from the Big Ten and the ACC, and one each from the Big 12, SBC (G6) and Notre Dame. Obviously it won't end this way, but this is where they stand today. 

As a reminder, I use a points based system. Teams start out with a certain number of points based on 12 different factors, and those points range from a low of -20.887 (#138 UMass) to a high of 315.128 points (#1 Oregon), so as you can see, there are about 335 points separating 1st and last place- plenty of room to fit in 136 additional teams. In other words, teams are an average of 2.4 points apart, but of course they aren't spaced evenly; some are 10-20 points away from another while others are less than a point away. To illustrate the difference, my number one team last year had over 1300 points, while the last place team had just 54. As you can see, the teams are much closer this year, as I had an average distance of almost 10 points between teams last year. As teams play games, they earn or lose points based on who they played, where they played,  and the score of that game. Sometimes a team can lose points after a win or gain points after a loss. For example, if Oregon played UMass and won by 2 points, chances are they will lose points because the game is much closer than a game between #s 1 and 138 should be. The same goes for defeating an FCS team by very few points, and a loss to an FCS team means quite a bit of negative points. Once we reach the end of September, I will drop the preseason points, and from then on, the rankings will be based on results and stats from this year only. 

Anyway, here are my new rankings from 1 to 138:

Rank	Team	Previous
1	Alabama	2
2	Georgia	1
3	Miami, Fl	5
4	LSU	7
5	Texas	4
6	Ohio State	12
7	Notre Dame	8
8	Indiana	9
9	James Madison	11
10	Utah	10
11	Pittsburgh	15
12	Mississippi State	3
13	Nebraska	16
14	UCLA	13
15	New Mexico	27
16	Duke	17
17	Tennessee	20
18	BYU	19
19	Florida	6
20	Missouri	46
21	North Dakota State	25
22	Wisconsin	36
23	Houston	31
24	USC	28
25	Virginia Tech	18
26	Baylor	42
27	Texas Tech	30
28	Wake Forest	47
29	Iowa	14
30	Arizona	48
31	Kansas State	21
32	Oklahoma State	24
33	Boise State	32
34	Northwestern	45
35	Kentucky	38
36	Oregon	34
37	Memphis	51
38	Georgia State	44
39	SMU	40
40	Minnesota	50
41	Ole Miss	39
42	FSU	79
43	FAU	61
44	UCF	33
45	Auburn	37
46	Michigan	29
47	Iowa State	57
48	Oregon State	70
49	Liberty	52
50	Fresno State	59
51	NC State	62
52	Kansas	86
53	Cincinnati	23
54	North Carolina	43
55	Appalachian State	55
56	Oklahoma	54
57	UTSA	66
58	Penn State	35
59	Texas A&M	73
60	Toledo	60
61	Louisiana	65
62	North Texas	71
63	West Virginia	49
64	Virginia	26
65	Vanderbilt	53
66	Louisville	56
67	USF	41
68	Washington	67
69	Syracuse	77
70	UMass	22
71	La Tech	89
72	FIU	76
73	Clemson	64
74	South Carolina	68
75	UNLV	85
76	Temple	102
77	South Alabama	90
78	Western Michigan	84
79	Air Force	82
80	Michigan State	69
81	TCU	75
82	Army	63
83	UAB	94
84	Arizona State	58
85	Tulsa	74
86	Jacksonville State	92
87	Texas State	72
88	Colorado	83
89	Maryland	81
90	San Jose State	96
91	Eastern Michigan	126
92	Purdue	110
93	UConn	87
94	Illinois	78
95	Tulane	100
96	Georgia Southern	104
97	Arkansas State	95
98	East Carolina	101
99	Kent State	123
100	Colorado State	80
101	California	93
102	San Diego State	114
103	Boston College	99
104	New Mexico State	113
105	Sam Houston	105
106	Ohio	108
107	Troy	107
108	Arkansas	91
109	Central Michigan	121
110	Delaware	98
111	Stanford	88
112	Marshall	106
113	Miami, OH	97
114	Missouri State	117
115	Southern Miss	118
116	Washington State	109
117	Rice	115
118	Georgia Tech	124
119	Wyoming	111
120	Kennesaw State	125
121	Coastal Carolina	112
122	Navy	119
123	Rutgers	116
124	ODU	120
125	Middle Tenn	103
126	Nevada	129
127	Buffalo	127
128	Akron	122
129	Utah State	130
130	Hawai'i	131
131	UTEP	128
132	Sacramento State	134
133	Ball State	133
134	WKU	132
135	Bowling Green	137
136	Northern Illinois	136
137	Charlotte	135
138	ULM	138

I will update these rankings each week throughout the season.

Feel free to leave a comment. Come back tomorrow for my Odds and Ends! 

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!