Odds and Ends 11/11/26
Welcome Back!
As today is Veterans' Day, I would like to recognize all of my fellow veterans who have served and continue to serve. I remember my time fondly. Or perhaps I've just forgotten all the times I was miserable. Regardless, thank you for all you have done and continue to do for America.
Before I begin, there are 3 Wednesday games this week:
Wednesday, November 11
Buffalo @ Ball State- The Cardinals lead this series 11-3, including a win in the 2020 MAC Championship Game in Detroit, but the Bulls have their own MAC CG win in 2008, also in Detroit, and won 51-48 in their last meeting in 2024. Buffalo is 6-3/4-1 and tied for 2nd in the MAC. BSU is 3-6/2-3 but has won 2 of their last 3, with one of those wins and the loss by 1 point each in OT. The Bulls have just 1 win in Muncie in 6 tries, but they'll get #2 tonight. Buffalo stampedes the Cardinals.
Sacramento State @ Central Michigan- The Hornets and Chippewas will be meeting for the first time. Sac State is just 2-8/1-6 but have been competitive the last 2 weeks, defeating Kent State by 21 points and losing to Toledo by just 3 last wee, but both of those were at home. CMU is 4-5/2-3 and should win this easily.
UMass @ Toledo- The Minutemen best Toledo in their 1st ever meeting in 1976, but the Rockets have won all 8 of the contests since, between 1983 and 2024, with none closer than 15 points. UMass has been much improved this year, but after starting the season 4-0, they've tumbled to 5-4/2-3, still needing 1 win to reach their 1st bowl game since 1972, and just their 3rd overall. Toledo is 7-2/4-1 but was taken to the limit by woeful Sac State. Rockets win, but the Minutemen won't make it easy for them.
Odds and Ends
The second CFP Reveal was last night. Here is the comparison with my Power Rankings.
As you can see, I was in exact agreement on the top 4, and got 8 of the top 10. In fact, we agreed on 23 of the top 25 for the 2nd week in a row. Teams I underrated the most were Tennessee (#12 in mine, #8 in CFP), BYU (#17 vs #10), Kentucky (#19 vs #11), Texas Tech (#23 vs #12), Oregon (#24 vs #16), and of course Missouri (#31 vs #22). I also missed on Oklahoma State, but only had them out by 1 spot. Teams I overrated (according to the committee) are Wake Forest (#9 in mine vs #13 in the CFP), LSU (#10 vs #21), Ohio State (#13 vs #20), Ole Miss (#14 vs #19), Boise State (#15 vs #24), Arizona (#16 vs #23), New Mexico (#21) and Oklahoma (#25), which were not included in the CFP.
I'd have to say my PR did pretty well...
Interconference results
The OOC portion of the schedule is mostly over, but will pick up at the end of the season with a few OOC rivalry games. Therefore, I will revisit this at the end of the regular season.
Intraconference results
The Sun Belt West now leads the East 3-2 after last weekend after the East found a win against the West.
Undefeated/Winless teams
There are just 2 undefeated teams (1.4% of FBS teams) after the10th week, as Miami lost. These are listed alphabetically, with both teams 9-0.
UCLA
Utah
Here are the winless teams, also listed alphabetically, and 0-9. There is only 1 of these teams left.
Northern Illinois
Here is how the conferences compare. The first number is the amount of undefeated teams, the 2nd the number of winless teams.
Big 12- 1/0
Big Ten- 1/0
ACC- 0/0
Sun Belt- 0/0
SEC- 0/0
Independents-0/0
MAC- 0/0
Pac 12- 0/0
CUSA- 0/0
American- 0/0
Mountain West- 0/1
Just for fun, here are the teams that have a win, but no FBS wins.
Akron
Rice
Sam Houston
UTEP
Washington State
That's 5 teams, as 1 team earned their 1st FBS win last weekend, broken down this way:
MAC- 1
CUSA- 1
American- 1
Pac 12- 1
Mountain West- 1
SBC- 0
Big Ten- 0
ACC- 0
Big 12- 0
SEC- 0
Independents- 0
This means that there are 6 teams- 4.3% of the 138- that still have no FBS wins.
Bowl eligible/eliminated
The number has swelled to 52 teams becoming bowl eligible with 6 wins, an increase of 11 teams. There are now 36 non-playoff bowl games, so 72 teams are needed, plus the 12 for the CFP. That means 84 teams will be needed for postseason play. All teams are eligible for postseason play, but UMass and Buffalo will need 7 wins, since 2 are against FCS teams, and only 1 can count. These are listed alphabetically.
Air Force
Alabama
Arizona
Baylor
Boise State
BYU
Clemson
Duke
FAU
Georgia
Houston
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Jacksonville State
James Madison
Kentucky
La Tech
Liberty
Louisiana
Louisville
Memphis
Miami, Fl
Missouri
New Mexico
North Dakota State
North Texas
Northwestern
Notre Dame
Ohio
Ohio State
Oklahoma State
Ole Miss
Oregon
Pittsburgh
SMU
South Carolina
Tennessee
Texas
Texas Tech
Toledo
UCLA
USC
USF
Utah
UTSA
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest
Western Michigan
Wisconsin
Wyoming
32 more teams are needed to fill all the bowl slots.
14 teams have been eliminated from bowl consideration, though that may no longer be true. I've just read that the NCAA has okayed teams with a 5-7 record playing in bowls without a waiver or APR minimum score for participation. I will continue to list teams with 7 losses as eliminated (for now).
Akron
Bowling Green
Charlotte
Georgia Tech
Northern Illinois
ODU
Rice
Rutgers
Sacramento State
Sam Houston
Temple
ULM
UTEP
Washington State
Conference Races
Now that we have started play, some teams have started to surge ahead while others have fallen behind. Here is a handy chart to help you see where every team stands. This does NOT include results from Tuesday games.
Let's dig in a little deeper. Here are some of the scenarios needed for each team to make their conference championship game.
American Conference
North Texas- a win at UTSA clinches a spot as long as UAB and Memphis don't win out. Winning 2 of 3 clinches a spot regardless of other results.
Memphis- needs UTSA to lose once (twice would be better) and winning last 3 would clinch a spot. Numerous other scenarios available.
UTSA- a win over UNT would help, but winning out would be best. Also, a Memphis loss.
Army, UAB, FAU, and ECU are all still mathematically in, but are mostly long shots. UAB could actually have a lot to say about who makes it, as they play both UTSA and UNT. If they win both, they could sneak into the title game. The other 3 need various combinations of winning out and for others to lose.
ACC
Miami- winning 2 of 3 guarantees them a spot.
Wake Forest- WF needs to beat both SMU and Duke to guarantee them a spot, as both trail them by 1 game and would win the tiebreaker against the Demon Deacons.
SMU and Duke- both need to win out, which would include a win over WF. Since they don't play each other, I'm not sure how that would be sorted out.
Louisville and Clemson- both need to win out and hope for losses from several other teams.
Big 12
Utah is in if they win at Arizona this weekend, or if multiple other teams lose.
Texas Tech- guaranteed in if they win out. Lose one, and they'll have to hope to win tiebreakers.
BYU, Houston, Arizona, Baylor, and Oklahoma State are all long shots, needing to win out and either Utah or TTU to lose one or more games.
Big Ten
UCLA- win 2 and they are in.
Indiana- winning all 3 guarantees them a spot, but losing one opens the door for...
Oregon, Ohio State, Iowa, Wisconsin, USC, and Illinois- each of these teams need to win out and hope for 1 or more losses from Indiana and/or UCLA. USC would win a tiebreaker with the Hoosiers with a win this weekend, but will have to beat UCLA. However, the Trojans have losses to 2 other teams in this group- Oregon and Wisconsin- that could complicate things.
CUSA
Liberty and Jax State have all but clinched, needing just 1 win each.
Middle Tennessee would need to win out, which would include beating the Flames this weekend, and hope Liberty loses one other. Or they could win out and hope JSU loses at least 2 of their last 3.
MAC
Ohio is in if they win their last 2, but still have to host Toledo. They do not play any of the other contenders.
Western Michigan, Toledo, and Buffalo are all tied for 2nd, with WMU beating Buffalo, who beat Toledo, who beat WMU. If 2nd place ends up with 2 losses, that could also include Miami, but they would have to win at WMU in the finale.
Mountain West
New Mexico has the clearest path, but their toughest games remain: UNLV, at Wyoming, Air Force.
Wyoming is probably in if they beat UNM, as they have already bested Air Force and UNLV, but would lose out in a 2-way tie with NDSU.
North Dakota State, Air Force, and UNLV are still alive, but need outside help.
Pac 12
Boise State has a 2-game lead with 3 to play. It would take an epic collapse for them not to make the CG, but they still have to play Oregon State, and the Flex game- tentatively scheduled at Utah State- could ultimately decide the fate of the Broncos.
Texas State, Oregon State, SDSU, and Utah State are all tied for 2nd place. San Diego State still has Utah State and Boise State left, and have beaten Texas State, but lost to Oregon State. TSU is 2-1 against the other 3. USU lost to TSU, but still has to play at both SDSU and OSU. OSU is 1-1 with USU still to play. Much will be decided the next 2 weeks, and the Flex game could be the deciding factor.
SEC
Georgia has a 1-game lead with 2 to play, but they only have the tiebreaker edge against Alabama, as they haven't- and won't- play the other 3 teams behind them.
Alabama has the easiest path, and holds the tiebreaker edge over Kentucky, but lost to Tennessee.
Tennessee is the only team that played the other 3 tied for 2nd place, topping Bama and UK, but losing to Texas.
Texas has the win over the other UT, but doesn't play the other 2.
Kentucky has losses to the Vols and the Tide, so they need the most to happen to make the final SEC CG.
There may be other teams technically still possible, but it would require many, many improbable things to happen.
Sun Belt Conference
East
Georgia Southern just needs to win out, but have 2 road games and a home contest with West leader La Tech in the final game, who they would probably meet again the next week in the CG.
James Madison needs to win 1 more game than GS does, as the Dukes hold the tiebreaker advantage over the Eagles.
West
La Tech needs 1 win in their final 3 games as they hold the tiebreaker advantage over Louisiana, who trails by 2 games.
Louisiana needs to win their last 3 and hope the Bulldogs lose their last 3.
Paul's Playoff Picks
Navy and Oregon have been eliminated. Or so I thought...
As a refresher, here is the setup for the CFP:
4 slots are reserved for the P4 conference champions; 7 slots are at-large (any team), but will include the highest rated G6 team regardless of if they are a conference champion. Notre Dame is also guaranteed a spot as long as they finish in the top 12 (can't be bumped by a lower rated conference champion).
The top 4 seeds get a bye for the 1st round. This year, there are again no allowances made for conference champions beyond being accepted into the field. The next 4 seeds get a home game for the 1st round, and the 9-12 seeds travel to play 4-8 (4 vs 12, 5 vs 11, etc.). Teams are not reseeded after the 1st round. After the 1st round, it plays out like any tournament- quarterfinals, semifinals, then finals, all at neutral sites (which I hope will change in future years).
So the 1st task is picking who will be P4 conference champions and get the automatic berths, and then what other teams from those conferences may get in. So I decided to take this conference by conference. But as I looked through each team who I felt had a chance, I see the potential for each of the P4 conferences to have as many as 6 teams with 10 or more wins! Obviously, they all won't (or at least I hope not) but even if each of the P4 only has 3 teams with 10+ wins, that's already more teams than spaces available in the CFP, if you include a G6 team. And don't forget about Notre Dame! So here's what I think.
In the SEC, I think several teams have a chance to make the CFP. Georgia is an obvious choice, but there are as many as 8 teams with a chance to get to 9 wins. Alabama, LSU, Texas, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and Tennessee all have potential. I can see any of this group of teams to be capable of winning anywhere from 9-11 games, mostly depending on avoiding upsets, and how they do against each other. South Carolina, Auburn, and Florida could be dark horses.
The Big Ten has much of the same problem- as many as 7 teams could win anywhere from 9-11 games (I'm not predicting any 12-0 teams), those teams being Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana, Michigan, Iowa, USC, and Penn State. Washington and Nebraska could be dark horses, as well as Minnesota or some other team.
In the ACC, most of the top teams don't play each other, more than once or twice, so once again we have the potential of having Miami, SMU, Clemson, Ga Tech, Louisville, Pitt, and Virginia getting to 9+ wins, with NC State or Va Tech being dark horses.
In the Big 12, I could see BYU, Utah, Houston, Arizona, Texas Tech, and/or TCU getting as many as 9 wins, with UCF or Arizona State being a dark horse.
In the G6, I see only about 4 or 5 teams that could get to 11 wins, but as many as 8 could get to 10 wins.
Having said all that, here is who I think makes it into this year's 12-team CFP, presented in no particular order:
Oregon- May be back in with the win over Ohio State
Indiana- Had an off week, but a big game at home against USC this weekend
Georgia- Solidified CFP spot by routing Ole Miss
Notre Dame- Almost guaranteed a spot after beating Miami
Texas- As close to being eliminated without being eliminated as possible
Ohio State- 2nd loss in a row has them on the verge of elimination
Miami, FL- Loss at Notre Dame doesn't hurt their chances
Texas Tech- Back on track
Alabama- Still alive
Navy- ELIMINATED
BYU- Loss at Utah may be the end for them
SMU- Only chance is to win the ACC
Some of you are probably screaming at me right now with, "what about...?" and you would probably be right. This is all just a colossal guess. So to hedge my bets a bit, here are the teams I think also have a decent chance to make it in, again in no particular order. This list is getting smaller as I delete teams on this list as they become eliminated.
Houston
Arizona
Boise State
Ole Miss
Tennessee
New Mexico
This is obviously an extensive list, because I basically listed every P4 team with a chance to get 9+ wins, and every G6 team that I think could get 10+ wins. I am 99.9% sure that I will be wrong about much of this, but I would be happy if I get at least 6 of the 12 teams right, and if all 12 come from these 2 lists.
My pick to win it all was Oregon, which would give the Big Ten 4 consecutive national championships from 4 different teams! That is looking increasingly unlikely...
I'll update how my picks are doing each Wednesday throughout the season.
Feel free to leave a comment. Come back tomorrow for Paul's Picks!
Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!
Comments
Post a Comment