Power Rankings 11/10/26

 Welcome Back!

Before we get into our regularly scheduled program, there are 3 games tonight! Here are my picks:

Tuesday, November 3

Western Michigan @ Akron- Though they lost the 1st meeting in 1938, the Broncos have been dominant in this series, leading 17-5. Of their 5 wins, only the 1st one for the Zips was in Akron. You know, the one in 1938. Their other wins were in 1975, 1996, 2007, and 2017, all in Kalamazoo. WMU is 6-3/4-1 and need this win to keep pace in the MAC. Akron is only 1-8/0-5. Broncos win big.

Kent State @ Bowling Green- The Falcons hold a huge 62-25-6 lead in this series, but the Golden Flashes have won 5 of the last 7 (since 2018), including 24-21 last year. KSU is 3-6/2-3, but are coming off a loss to Sacramento State. BGSU is 2-7/2-3 but have suffered 3 losses in a row after winning their 1st 2 MAC contests at Miami and vs Sac State. Flip a coin. Falcons win at home.

Ohio @ Miami, Ohio- The Redhawks have a 56-44-2 lead in the series, but the Bobcats have won the last 2, including the 2024 MAC Championship Game in Detroit. Ohio has generally dominated this century, as they are 15-5 since 2006, but Miami has won 2 of the last 3 played in Oxford. The Bobcats are 7-2/5-0 and all alone in 1st place in the MAC. Their only losses have been at Nebraska and at South Alabama. The Redhawks are 5-4/3-2, but just 1-2 in MAC games played in Yager Stadium. Ohio wins.

Power Rankings

The rankings have begun to settle down a bit. 31 teams moved at least 10 spots up or down (9 less than last week), and only 2 teams moved 20 or more places. The biggest movers were Tulsa (+21 after plastering Tulane) and UTSA (-22 after being blown out by FAU). Georgia moves back into the #1 position, while Northern Illinois remains in last place. 

Texas has returned to the Top 10 as Ohio State drops out after losing to Oregon. In the Top 25, there are only two new teams: Oregon and Oklahoma. Dropping out were Missouri and Northwestern. 

This is what the CFP bracket would look like according to my rankings. In order to do this exercise, I have to make several assumptions, the first and most important being that the highest rated member of the conference will also be the conference champion. While that may not always be the case (see last year when Miami was ranked higher than ACC Champion Duke), we have to start somewhere.

#1 seed Georgia (SEC) would host the winner of 9 Wake Forest at 8 Texas   

#4 seed UCLA (Big Ten) would host the winner of 12 Boise State (G6) at 5 Miami(ACC)

#2 seed Utah (B12) would host the winner of 10 LSU at 7 Indiana

#3 seed Alabama would host the winner of 11 Houston at 6 Notre Dame

The field consists of 4 teams from the SEC, 2 from the Big Ten, two from the ACC,  two from the Big 12, one from the Pac 12 (G6), and Notre Dame. Obviously it won't end this way, but this is where they stand today. I'm curious to see how this will compare to the CFP reveal tonight.

The 1st 5 teams out would be Tennessee, Ohio State, Ole Miss, Arizona, and BYU.

As a reminder, I use a points based system. Teams start out with a certain number of points based on 12 different factors, and those points range from a low of -20.887 (#138 UMass) to a high of 315.128 points (#1 Oregon), so as you can see, there are about 335 points separating 1st and last place- plenty of room to fit in 136 additional teams. In other words, teams are an average of 2.4 points apart, but of course they aren't spaced evenly; some are 10-20 points away from another while others are less than a point away. To illustrate the difference, my number one team last year had over 1300 points, while the last place team had just 54. As you can see, the teams are much closer this year, as I had an average distance of almost 10 points between teams last year. As teams play games, they earn or lose points based on who they played, where they played,  and the score of that game. Sometimes a team can lose points after a win or gain points after a loss. For example, if Oregon played UMass and won by 2 points, chances are they will lose points because the game is much closer than a game between #s 1 and 138 should be. The same goes for defeating an FCS team by very few points, and a loss to an FCS team means quite a bit of negative points. Once we reach the end of September, I will drop the preseason points, and from then on, the rankings will be based on results and stats from this year only. 

Anyway, here are my new rankings from 1 to 138:

1	Georgia	2
2	Utah	5
3	Alabama	6
4	UCLA	7
5	Miami, Fl	1
6	Notre Dame	10
7	Indiana	4
8	Texas	11
9	Wake Forest	8
10	LSU	3
11	Houston	14
12	Tennessee	20
13	Ohio State	9
14	Ole Miss	12
15	Boise State	17
16	Arizona	18
17	BYU	15
18	Iowa	19
19	Kentucky	13
20	South Carolina	22
21	New Mexico	21
22	USC	16
23	Texas Tech	24
24	Oregon	33
25	Oklahoma	29
26	Oklahoma State	28
27	SMU	31
28	Duke	30
29	Liberty	26
30	Wisconsin	27
31	Missouri	23
32	Louisville	32
33	La Tech	35
34	James Madison	43
35	Baylor	45
36	Northwestern	25
37	North Carolina	46
38	Memphis	36
39	North Texas	38
40	Auburn	47
41	North Dakota State	44
42	Clemson	56
43	Florida	34
44	UCF	57
45	Pittsburgh	49
46	Illinois	62
47	Penn State	61
48	Virginia Tech	40
49	Nebraska	37
50	Cincinnati	54
51	West Virginia	51
52	FAU	78
53	Minnesota	50
54	Washington	48
55	Mississippi State	42
56	Iowa State	53
57	Arizona State	64
58	Syracuse	52
59	TCU	58
60	Michigan	41
61	UTSA	39
62	Georgia Southern	69
63	Texas State	76
64	Air Force	71
65	Jacksonville State	63
66	Toledo	66
67	Texas A&M	65
68	FSU	77
69	Wyoming	83
70	Oregon State	55
71	Western Michigan	72
72	Ohio	75
73	USF	59
74	Kansas	70
75	Michigan State	94
76	Army	68
77	UNLV	67
78	Fresno State	60
79	Louisiana	84
80	Tulsa	101
81	Vanderbilt	100
82	Georgia State	91
83	Virginia	85
84	East Carolina	96
85	NC State	74
86	Kansas State	73
87	Boston College	79
88	UAB	90
89	Colorado	82
90	Buffalo	99
91	Appalachian State	80
92	UConn	86
93	Stanford	93
94	Arkansas	92
95	Miami, OH	88
96	Arkansas State	81
97	Purdue	89
98	San Diego State	103
99	Utah State	114
100	South Alabama	97
101	Troy	98
102	FIU	104
103	California	105
104	Tulane	87
105	Maryland	110
106	Marshall	95
107	Central Michigan	120
108	Delaware	102
109	San Jose State	111
110	UMass	112
111	Georgia Tech	107
112	Middle Tenn	118
113	Southern Miss	108
114	ODU	124
115	Navy	121
116	New Mexico State	113
117	Coastal Carolina	106
118	Colorado State	116
119	Kent State	122
120	Kennesaw State	127
121	Rutgers	119
122	Nevada	117
123	Eastern Michigan	109
124	Temple	115
125	Hawai'i	128
126	WKU	123
127	Missouri State	125
128	Washington State	130
129	Ball State	126
130	Rice	129
131	Bowling Green	133
132	Sam Houston	131
133	ULM	137
134	Akron	132
135	Charlotte	134
136	UTEP	135
137	Sacramento State	136
138	Northern Illinois	138

I will update these rankings each week throughout the season.

Feel free to leave a comment. Come back tomorrow for my Odds and Ends! 

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!