Power Rankings 11/3/26

Welcome Back!

Before we get into our regularly scheduled program, there are 2 games tonight! Here are my picks:

Tuesday, November 3

Ohio @ Akron- The Bobcats hold a commanding 27-13-1 lead in the series, winning the last 7, and 16 of the last 17 (since 2008), but Akron's last win in the series did come in Akron, in 2017. Ohio also has a commanding lead in the MAC, as they are 6-2/4-0 and the Zips are 1-7/0-4 with no FBS wins, and dwindling prospects (WMU at home in Infocision Stadium is next). Bobcats win big.

Buffalo @ Miami, Ohio- The Redhawks lead the series 18-9, but while they have won the last 2, they are only 6-3 over the last 9 meetings (since 2016), and are 6-7 since 2012. The Bulls haven't won in Oxford since 2015, losing 4 in a row in Yager Stadium. Both teams are 5-3/3-1, so picking the winner is somewhat less obvious than picking the game above. The Redhawks are 3-1 at home while the Bulls are 1-2 on the road. However, that 1 victory for Buffalo was at Toledo as Miami's lone home loss was to 2-7 BGSU, whom Buffalo beat in their most recent game. I'm going with the Bulls on the road.

Power Rankings

The rankings continue to be volatile as we still had some big movers. 40 teams moved at least 10 spots up or down, but only 6 teams moving 20 or more places. The biggest movers were Troy (+23 after upsetting James Madison) and James Madison (-26). Miami moves back into the #1 position, while Northern Illinois remains in last place. 

Wake Forest is new to the Top 10 as Kentucky drops out after being idle. In the Top 25, there are five new teams: USC, Iowa, South Carolina, Missouri, and Texas Tech. Dropping out were Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, SMU, and James Madison. 

This is what the CFP bracket would look like according to my rankings. In order to do this exercise, I have to make several assumptions, the first and most important being that the highest rated member of the conference will also be the conference champion. While that may not always be the case (see last year when Miami was ranked higher than ACC Champion Duke), we have to start somewhere.

#1 seed Miami(ACC) would host the winner of 9 Ohio State at 8 Wake Forest

#4 seed Indiana (Big Ten) would host the winner of 12 Boise State (G6) at 5 Utah (B12)

#2 seed Georgia (SEC) would host the winner of 10 Notre Dame at 7 UCLA

#3 seed LSU would host the winner of 11 Texas at 6 Alabama

The field consists of 4 teams from the SEC, 3 from the Big Ten, two from the ACC,  one from the Big 12, one from the Pac 12 (G6), and Notre Dame. Obviously it won't end this way, but this is where they stand today. I'm curious to see how this will compare to the CFP reveal tonight.

The 1st 5 teams out would be Ole Miss, Kentucky, Houston, BYU, and USC.

As a reminder, I use a points based system. Teams start out with a certain number of points based on 12 different factors, and those points range from a low of -20.887 (#138 UMass) to a high of 315.128 points (#1 Oregon), so as you can see, there are about 335 points separating 1st and last place- plenty of room to fit in 136 additional teams. In other words, teams are an average of 2.4 points apart, but of course they aren't spaced evenly; some are 10-20 points away from another while others are less than a point away. To illustrate the difference, my number one team last year had over 1300 points, while the last place team had just 54. As you can see, the teams are much closer this year, as I had an average distance of almost 10 points between teams last year. As teams play games, they earn or lose points based on who they played, where they played,  and the score of that game. Sometimes a team can lose points after a win or gain points after a loss. For example, if Oregon played UMass and won by 2 points, chances are they will lose points because the game is much closer than a game between #s 1 and 138 should be. The same goes for defeating an FCS team by very few points, and a loss to an FCS team means quite a bit of negative points. Once we reach the end of September, I will drop the preseason points, and from then on, the rankings will be based on results and stats from this year only. 

Anyway, here are my new rankings from 1 to 138:

Rank	Team	Previous
1	Miami, Fl	2
2	Georgia	6
3	LSU	1
4	Indiana	5
5	Utah	7
6	Alabama	4
7	UCLA	8
8	Wake Forest	11
9	Ohio State	3
10	Notre Dame	9
11	Texas	14
12	Ole Miss	15
13	Kentucky	10
14	Houston	12
15	BYU	16
16	USC	28
17	Boise State	22
18	Arizona	13
19	Iowa	32
20	Tennessee	20
21	New Mexico	19
22	South Carolina	31
23	Missouri	27
24	Texas Tech	34
25	Northwestern	23
26	Liberty	35
27	Wisconsin	21
28	Oklahoma State	18
29	Oklahoma	25
30	Duke	47
31	SMU	24
32	Louisville	41
33	Oregon	49
34	Florida	29
35	La Tech	42
36	Memphis	50
37	Nebraska	26
38	North Texas	46
39	UTSA	38
40	Virginia Tech	39
41	Michigan	40
42	Mississippi State	30
43	James Madison	17
44	North Dakota State	45
45	Baylor	58
46	North Carolina	44
47	Auburn	36
48	Washington	61
49	Pittsburgh	53
50	Minnesota	48
51	West Virginia	51
52	Syracuse	67
53	Iowa State	72
54	Cincinnati	43
55	Oregon State	33
56	Clemson	68
57	UCF	37
58	TCU	66
59	USF	69
60	Fresno State	81
61	Penn State	70
62	Illinois	65
63	Jacksonville State	79
64	Arizona State	62
65	Texas A&M	64
66	Toledo	63
67	UNLV	60
68	Army	52
69	Georgia Southern	88
70	Kansas	57
71	Air Force	80
72	Western Michigan	78
73	Kansas State	54
74	NC State	86
75	Ohio	77
76	Texas State	74
77	FSU	59
78	FAU	71
79	Boston College	56
80	Appalachian State	55
81	Arkansas State	84
82	Colorado	97
83	Wyoming	85
84	Louisiana	87
85	Virginia	75
86	UConn	76
87	Tulane	90
88	Miami, OH	91
89	Purdue	82
90	UAB	83
91	Georgia State	73
92	Arkansas	89
93	Stanford	92
94	Michigan State	94
95	Marshall	103
96	East Carolina	98
97	South Alabama	93
98	Troy	121
99	Buffalo	100
100	Vanderbilt	99
101	Tulsa	101
102	Delaware	105
103	San Diego State	107
104	FIU	95
105	California	96
106	Coastal Carolina	120
107	Georgia Tech	108
108	Southern Miss	115
109	Eastern Michigan	109
110	Maryland	112
111	San Jose State	114
112	UMass	117
113	New Mexico State	106
114	Utah State	124
115	Temple	110
116	Colorado State	102
117	Nevada	113
118	Middle Tenn	104
119	Rutgers	118
120	Central Michigan	123
121	Navy	122
122	Kent State	111
123	WKU	116
124	ODU	119
125	Missouri State	128
126	Ball State	126
127	Kennesaw State	131
128	Hawai'i	127
129	Rice	129
130	Washington State	125
131	Sam Houston	130
132	Akron	135
133	Bowling Green	132
134	Charlotte	133
135	UTEP	134
136	Sacramento State	137
137	ULM	136
138	Northern Illinois	138

I will update these rankings each week throughout the season.

Feel free to leave a comment. Come back tomorrow for my Odds and Ends! 

Until next time, may you and your loved ones be blessed!