Paul Prattles On

Welcome Back! The 1st bowl week, I was 4-4; not bad, but not good. I was sure I would do better the 2nd week. Boy, was I wrong! I was an embarrassingly poor 4-12 (25%!), which makes me an overall 8-16 for the bowls, meaning I've been correct only 1/3 of the time (which basically makes me the Mountain West)! Surely, I can't do any worse, can I? Please don't answer that... This is Part 3 of 3. I'll have one more blog to preview the National Championship Game. Bowl Games are notoriously difficult to predict, and always have been, but it's been made so much more difficult with all the opt-outs, transfers, and coaching changes occurring much earlier than they used to. All of which is to say that if I can finish at or around 50% for the bowls, I will consider that a success. Above 60%/ That's a rousing success. 75% or better? That's a minor miracle! Just so you know, there will be no TWIF Notes following each week of bowl games. There are few enough games that you...

Welcome Back! So far I am a mediocre 4-4 in my bowl picks. I started out great, getting the 1st 2 correct, but themn missed the next 3. Hopefully, I can do better this week. This is Part 2 of 3. I'll have the pre-New Year's and New Year's games in my next installment, but this should be enough to get you through Christmas and a little beyond. Bowl Games are notoriously difficult to predict, and always have been, but it's been made so much more difficult with all the opt-outs, transfers, and coaching changes occurring much earlier than they used to. All of which is to say that if I can finish at or around 50% for the bowls, I will consider that a success. Above 60%/ That's a rousing success. 75% or better? That's a minor miracle! Just so you know, there will be no TWIF Notes following each week of bowl games. There are few enough games that you can find recaps in your local paper or online. This is how each conference is doing in the bowls so far: AAC 1-0 1.000 B...

Welcome Back! Over Championship Game Weekend, I was an awful 3-7, or 30% correct, but at least getting Army right pulled me up to 4-7, or 36.4%.  Overall, I am 653-215, or 75.2%, a decrease of 0.5% from last week. I typically finish around 73%, but my goal is always to finish at or above 75%, and I just barely made it this year! Bowl Games are notoriously difficult to predict, and always have been, but it's been made so much more difficult with all the opt-outs, transfers, and coaching changes occurring much earlier than they used to. All of which is to say that if I can finish at or around 50% for the bowls, I will consider that a success. Above 60%/ That's a rousing success. 75% or better? That's a minor miracle! Just so you know, there will be no TWIF Notes following each week of bowl games. There are few enough games that you can find recaps in your local paper or online. Now... on with the picks! Saturday, December 16 Myrtle Beach Bowl Georgia Southern vs Ohio (Myrtle ...

Welcome Back! Instead of an Odds and Ends this week I'm doing a Conference Call. With the changing landscape in College Football, I thought it might be a good idea to revisit how the conferences will be set up over the next few years, and when those changes will be happening. I am also going to compare the accuracy of my preseason conference standings predictions with the 3 major magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy's, and Athlon, so let's start there.  Using the formula that Phil Steele describes on pages 6 and 7 in his excellent magazine, I compared my predictions against those of the 3 magazines. Phil Steele claims in his magazine to be the most accurate over the last 28 years, which is true, but he's not always the most accurate each and every year. This year, he finished tied for 1st with Lindy's. This year I finished last, undone by my picks for the Big 12, which were far worse than any of the 3 magazines. Take away that one conference, and I finish 1st easily.  This...

Welcome Back! Before I get to the Power Rankings, I want to give the top 10 teams in my statistical analysis that I use for those Power Rankings. These are the teams that did the best this season offensively and defensively combined, based on a formula I devised. 1. Georgia 2. SMU 3. Oregon 4. Notre Dame 5. Penn State 6. Texas 7. Ohio State 8. Michigan 9. Troy 10. FSU Here are the teams that did the worst statistically: 133. Nevada 132. ULM 131. Vanderbilt 130. FIU 129. Kent State 128. Stanford 127. BYU 126. Temple 125. Michigan State 124. Arizona State CFP Top 25 The final CFP rankings were revealed last Sunday (Dec 3), and there were a few controversial surprises. I was interested in seeing how my weekly Power Rankings would compare to the CFP poll, and I would have to say I'm pretty pleased at the accuracy. 23 of my Top 25 made it in the CP Top 25, and my Top 9 were ranked within the Top 10, but the order is very different. Some of the more extreme differences are: 1) I have Geo...