Posts

Paul's Picks Week Zero

Welcome Back! College Football is back!   The first games are in 2 days, and it's a rather sparse weekend, hence the "Week Zero" moniker.  Last year, I finished at 75.2%, which was   my best in several years (74.1% after the bowls).  Over the last 7 years, I am a combined 4,322-1,581, which comes out to 73.2%. 2022 was my worst year over this period (70.3%), while 2019 was my best year, at 76.2%. In both 2017 and 2018, I was at 73%, and 2021 was 73.6%, while the pandemic year of 2020 saw me at what had been my previous low of 71.8%. You should know that I only only pick who wins, not against the spread.  I'm not into gambling, and I certainly wouldn't use my picks to gamble with (if you do, that's on  YOU! ). I don't have inside information, I don't scour injury reports, I don't have a research staff, and this isn't my full time job; it's just a hobby, but I have been following college football for over 50 years, and I've seen a lot of

Odds and Ends 8/21/24

Welcome Back! On Wednesdays I have my  Odds and Ends .  This is where I present interesting statistics that you can't easily find elsewhere. These include: Interconference results - which conference has the best OOC record. Intraconference results - how do the divisions fare against each other within each conference (I'm a little sad that only the Sun Belt has divisions). Undefeated/Winless teams - Starting week 2, I keep a running list of undefeated and winless teams throughout the season, updated each week. Bowl eligible/eliminated - Starting midseason, I keep a running list of teams as they reach bowl eligibility (6+ wins) or are eliminated from bowl eligibility (7+ losses). Updates on my playoff picks - After I reveal my picks today (see below!), I will update them each week. Since the season hasn't started yet, I will use today's Odds and Ends to present my list of  Coaches On The Hot Seat , a  Comparison of OOC Schedules , and my picks to make the  CFB Playoff . C

Preseason Power Rankings 8/20/24

Welcome Back! While I'm positive every single one of you read and memorized all 15 of my college football previews of the individual teams (Parts I-XV), I thought it would be a good idea to present my top 134 all at once, just in case you missed some, or in case you didn't memorize the order.  But before that, I'm going to compare my top 25 to the AP top 25, just for fun!  So let's start there. AP Rank Team My Rank 1 Georgia 1 2 Ohio State 2 3 Oregon 3 4 Texas 7 5 Alabama 4 6 Ole Miss 12 7 Notre Dame 5 8 Penn State 6 9 Michigan 10 10 FSU 11 11 Missouri 17 12 Utah 16 13 LSU 13 14 Clemson 8 15 Tennessee 15 16 Oklahoma 14 17 Oklahoma State 19 18 Kansas State 9 19 Miami, Fl 22 20 Texas A&M 23 21 Arizona 35 22 Kansas 39 23 USC 28 24 NC State 24 25 Iowa 20 29 SMU 18 31 Liberty 21 26 Louisville 25 As you can see, we completely agree on the top 3, but starting at #4, there are quite a few differences. However, we agree on 22 of the top 25, just in a different order.  The ou

TWIF Notes 8/19/24

Welcome Back! Today starts my normal in-season schedule, as I have finished all of my previews (check out my Previews Parts I through XXV in my previous 25 blogs), and it is finally  GAME WEEK! In case you are new, and not one of my two faithful readers (many thanks to my eldest son and to my brother!), let me go through what you can expect from me during the season.  Obviously, this week will be slightly different. On Mondays, I have my  TWIF Notes . This is just a (very) brief recap of all the games that took place the previous weekend.  I don't have a research staff, and I don't have 12 TVs in my living room, so you won't get an in depth analysis of every game.  Besides, I don't have that kind of time, and anyway, you can find that elsewhere.  What you will get is my unique perspective of what the wins and losses mean for each team, and how they might affect their season, and the occasional interesting statistic. Like I said, the recaps will be brief, usually just a

Conference Previews Part XXV

Welcome Back! Today I conclude my conference previews. These previews will attempt to predict how each conference finishes, but realize that doing so is extremely difficult, especially since no conference has a balanced schedule. Also, whatever the conferences come up with in the form of tiebreakers will make a huge difference, as all but the Sun Belt have done away with divisions. In addition, these predictions aren't my personal opinion; they are the result of the formula/model/statistical analysis/whatever. I will sometimes mention my thoughts in the narratives below the predictions. The list of records for 3-years, 6-years, and 10 years are conference records only, and do not include any results for the conference championship games. You will notice that the teams haven't all played the same number of games, especially when considering they should have. This is because that teams played a varied number of games in 2020, and that sometimes games get cancelled (see Virginia i